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SPC Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4-8
SPC Day 4-8 Outlook Categorical
ACUS48 KWNS 230858
SPC AC 230857

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0357 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Valid 261200Z - 011200Z

On D4/Mon, a large upper trough will remain in place across the
northeastern quarter of the CONUS with high pressure centered over
the Plains and Mississippi Valley. While a few afternoon storms are
possible across the central and southern High Plains, the overall
threat appears minimal due to weak shear.

On D5/Tue, the upper trough will lift east, with a brief period of
shortwave ridging before a low-amplitude wave emerges into the
northern High Plains. Moisture will be in the process of returning
north, and, midlevel flow looks to be marginal, but perhaps
minimally supportive of a few severe storms. At this time, potential
is too low for five days out.

By D6/Wed, overall flow fields aloft will strengthen with 500 mb
winds forecast to be in the 50-60 kt range across much of the
northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. Larger instability
looks to be in place across the Plains, with 40+ kt southerly 850 mb
flow feeding northward with low pressure likely over northern
Minnesota. Models indicate the potential for widespread early
storms, which complicates the scenario. Therefore, will defer to
later outlooks once predictability increases.

Further storm activity is expected for D7-D8, from the central
Plains eastward across the Midwest but predictability issues remain.

..Jewell.. 06/23/2017

The Thunderstorm Outlook is created by the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK.
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