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SPC Day 1 Outlook
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000
ACUS01 KWNS 191925
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SPC AC 191923

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0123 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

Valid 192000Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the Texas and central
California coasts.

...Discussion...

Minor changes have been made to the thunder line along the TX Coast
to better reflect ongoing convection.

Mid-level short-wave trough is shifting east along the TX Coast.
Deep convection, with sporadic lightning, has been noted with
elevated updrafts within roughly 50mi of the middle TX Coast. As
large-scale forcing for ascent shifts east convective updrafts
should gradually weaken and the probability for lightning will wane.
Even so, LLJ will remain focused west of the transitory short wave
and this may allow a few thunderstorms to linger longer than
otherwise would be expected.

..Darrow.. 01/19/2018

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2018/

...Synopsis...
A weak midlevel trough will continue to drift eastward near the
northwest Gulf coast.  Though the weakly unstable warm sector and
the majority of the deep convection remains offshore, weak midlevel
buoyancy does extend inland over the TX coastal plain per the 12z
sounding at Corpus Christi.  Low-level warm advection should
maintain some weak midlevel convection, and the potential for
isolated lightning strikes, through early afternoon.

Otherwise, an upstream shortwave trough is progressing
east-southeastward toward CA.  Low-topped convection accompanies the
midlevel thermal trough per satellite imagery, and a few lightning
flashes have been detected off the central CA coast as of 16z.  Weak
surface-based buoyancy will reach the immediate central CA coast
later today in conjunction with the steeper low-midlevel lapse
rates, though thunderstorm coverage should remain isolated, at best.

$$

The Thunderstorm Outlook is created by the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK.
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