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SPC Day 2 Outlook
Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4-8
SPC Day 2 Outlook Categorical
ACUS02 KWNS 241728
SPC AC 241727

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 PM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z


Widely scattered strong storms may impact parts of the southern into
central Plains late Sunday afternoon through Sunday night.  A couple
of these probably will be accompanied by a risk for severe weather.

Mid/upper flow across the U.S. appears likely to remain fairly
amplified through this period.  Within a southern branch of split
mid-latitude westerlies emanating from the Pacific,  another short
wave impulse is forecast to dig into the base of positively tilted
larger scale troughing shifting inland of the Pacific coast.  As it
does, there may be increased phasing with a belt of westerlies
emerging from the subtropical Pacific, across Baja/northwestern
portions of the Mexican Plateau and adjacent portions of the
Southwest.  Downstream, mid/upper subtropical ridging is forecast to
build across the northwest Gulf coast region and lower Mississippi
Valley, while mid-latitude ridging builds to the north/northeast,
along an axis across the Great Lakes into Quebec.  This is expected
to occur in the wake of a vigorous short wave trough digging
southeast of the northern Mid Atlantic Coast region, which likely
will contribute to sharpening of larger-scale troughing east of the
Atlantic Seaboard.

Cold surface ridging in the wake of this latter feature, is in the
process of developing southward through much of the eastern U.S.,
and it appears likely to maintain a considerable influence as far
west as the Mississippi and lower/middle Missouri Valleys through
early Monday.  Considerable modification is expected across parts of
the southern through central Plains, as models continue to indicate
that a modest cyclone will form within lee surface troughing across
southeastern Colorado Sunday, before migrating southeastward into
the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle region Sunday night.

Coinciding with these developments, moistening associated with
southerly return flow from the southern into central Plains and
Missouri Valley is forecast  beneath steepening lower/mid
tropospheric lapse rates.  This is expected to contribute to the
development of a corridor of moderate potential instability, along
with at least some risk for severe storms.

...Southern into central Plains...
Mid/upper support for thunderstorm development east of the Rockies
during this period likely will not be particularly widespread or
strong, and remains unclear at the present time.  Boundary layer
destabilization, aided by strong daytime heating appears likely to
remain generally confined to parts of the Texas Edwards
Plateau/South Plains and Big Country into southwestern Oklahoma.
Within this region, models suggest that there may be pockets of
downward mixing of drier mid-level air, and there may be
considerable capping beneath elevated mixed layer air.  But areas
with CAPE on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg may develop by late
afternoon, supporting potential for severe storm development beneath
strong southwesterly mid/upper flow favorable for supercells.  A
possible dryline/effective warm frontal zone intersection near the
southwest Oklahoma/northwest Texas border area during the late
afternoon/early evening may provide one particular focus for
development, but lingering uncertainties preclude increasing severe
probabilities across this area at this time.

Sunday evening through 12Z Monday, northward moisture transport
along a strengthening southerly low-level jet (30-50 kt at 850 mb)
across central Oklahoma through eastern Kansas and adjacent
southeast Nebraska is expected to contribute to significant
destabilization (CAPE increasing in excess of 1000 J/kg).  This will
generally occur above a residual cool to cold/stable near surface
layer, but severe hail may at least become possible in stronger warm
advection driven convection.

..Kerr.. 03/24/2018


The Thunderstorm Outlook is created by the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK.
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