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SPC Day 2 Outlook
Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4-8
SPC Day 2 Outlook Categorical
Categorical
Probabilistic
000
ACUS02 KWNS 151729
SWODY2
SPC AC 151728

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible from parts of south and east
Texas Saturday and east Texas and Louisiana Saturday evening and
overnight.

...Southeast Texas coastal area...

Model consensus is that the upper low over northern Mexico will
accelerate and eject northeast through the Southern Plains later
Saturday afternoon and overnight in response to an upstream wave,
while an offshore warm front lifts north and approaches the
southeast TX coast. Stronger forcing for deep ascent will remain
well north of warm sector, but a weak surface cyclone is forecast to
develop and move northeast along the TX coast Saturday night.
Current indications are that the richer low-level moisture and warm
sector will remain just offshore with low 60s F dewpoints along the
coast. However, if the surface low and warm front can develop a
little farther northwest, there will be a small window (2-3 hours)
where a small warm sector with upper 60s F dewpoints could spread
into southeast TX including the Galveston area later Saturday night.
This scenario would support at least a marginal threat for surface
based supercells and possibly a tornado in a high shear/low cape
environment. Given the uncertainty regarding inland advance of the
warm sector, will maintain less than 5% severe probabilities this
update, but a marginal risk category might be warranted in later
outlooks.

..Dial.. 12/15/2017

$$

The Thunderstorm Outlook is created by the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK.
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