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SPC Day 2 Outlook
Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4-8
SPC Day 2 Outlook Categorical
Categorical
Probabilistic
000
ACUS02 KWNS 150502
SWODY2
SPC AC 150501

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1201 AM CDT Tue May 15 2018

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong thunderstorms are possible across the High Plains
Wednesday afternoon and evening, accompanied by some risk for severe
hail and wind.

...Synopsis...
The various model ensemble output remain similar with regard to the
large-scale flow evolution through this period.  Westerlies
emanating from the Pacific will remain split, with a continuing
gradual readjustment of the general blocking pattern near the
Pacific coast.  Within the southern branch, it still appears that a
mid-level low will migrate inland of the California coast, and
across the Sierra Nevada.  Downstream, ridging is forecast to
sharpen across the central and southern High Plains, with weak
troughing to the east digging and coming in phase with troughing in
the subtropical stream, across and east of the lower Mississippi
Valley southward through the northwest Caribbean.  Within the
eastern periphery of this troughing, the remnants of a low may
accelerate inland of the Florida Panhandle coast.

Meanwhile, within the northern branch, seasonably strong cyclonic
mid-level flow may linger across eastern Canada, and as far south as
northern New England, with another significant embedded short wave
trough digging southeast of Hudson and James Bays.  This may be
accompanied by a deeper surge of cooler air into portions of the
upper Great Lakes, St. Lawrence Valley and parts of northern New
England by late Wednesday night, after a shallower surge through
most areas east of the upper Mississippi Valley, near/north of the
Ohio River and northern Mid Atlantic Region by 12Z Wednesday.

Steeper lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates associated with elevated
mixed layer air may become increasingly confined to the immediate
lee of the Rockies by the beginning of the period.  While modest
moisture may linger along the diffuse remnants of a weak front or
convective outflow across the lower Mississippi Valley northwestward
through the southern Plains Red River Valley and perhaps High
Plains, seasonably high moisture content may remain largely confined
to a broad plume ahead of the lead southern branch/subtropical
trough axis.  These trends, coupled with the maintenance of
generally weak large-scale wind fields (at least in areas that
experience appreciable destabilization), suggest that severe weather
potential may be low to negligible across much of the nation
Wednesday through Wednesday night.

...High Plains...
Models do suggest that corridors of moderate CAPE may develop in the
presence of steep lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates near a weak lee
surface trough across much of the High Plains.  By late Wednesday
afternoon, this environment may become conducive to at least
isolated strong to severe storms with a risk for severe hail and
wind, aided by modest deep layer shear (largely due to veering  of
lower through mid-level winds with height).  This activity may
persist into Wednesday evening, before diminishing as the boundary
layer cool/stabilizes.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado:   2%     - Marginal
Wind:      5%     - Marginal
Hail:      5%     - Marginal

..Kerr.. 05/15/2018

$$

The Thunderstorm Outlook is created by the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK.
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