952
FXUS63 KABR 271458 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
958 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Western wildfire smoke may impact visibility across eastern
  and central South Dakota today and Tuesday.

- Less intense heat but temperatures still 5 to 15 degrees above
  normal through at least mid-week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 953 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Visibility across the region is around 6-9SM as wildfire smoke
aloft and at the surface (to a lesser extent) remain in place.
Already have smoke mention in the grids/forecast today through
Tuesday, so no big changes there. Timing for convection out west
for late afternoon/early evening still looks OK, so current PoP
forecast remains unchanged at this time. Highs today will remain
hot, with readings in the upper 80s to upper 90s. These values
are just a few degrees cooler than yesterday, and dewpoints are
also forecast to be a tad lower. So, apparent T forecast remains
below 100 degrees for most of the CWA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1258 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Smoke is now the main forecast concern with the RRFS bringing the
plume of near surface smoke down out of Montana/North Dakota into
central/north central and northeast South Dakota during the early
morning into the daytime hours. There is a weak surface high
circulation to the north, so as the high continues east, winds
shift east and then southeast. Thus the smoke moves in and then
lingers across the area even into Tuesday though over time it will
be tempered by deep mixing. Upper level smoke is likewise expected
to spill over the ridge into the area. This will have a feedback on
temperatures, but with the slightly `cooler` airmass coming in
unsure what this will do in comparison with the NBM.

Another plume of moisture pivoting around the upper high from the
Intermountain West crosses into South Dakota tonight. CAMS show
generally weak convection, with skinny CAPE up above 10kts and an
inverted V type profile.

The ridge continues to retrograde slowly with the upper high slowly
flattening. With the ridge weakening, 700mb temperatures drop from
their peak down to around a standard deviation above climo, though
this anomalously warm air aloft sticks with us through the work week.
Late in the week and for the weekend the ridge breaks down in the
presence of a wave crossing the northern tier CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 707 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Smoke will be the main aviation concern over the next 24 hours,
bringing visibility into MVFR range and at times brining a
BKN040 layer (particularly at MBG).

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...06