720
FXUS63 KABR 281635 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1035 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Northwest winds gusting from 40 to 55 mph through this evening,
with Wind Advisories in place.

- Increased snowfall amounts for far northeastern SD and west
central MN, with 2 to 7" east of the James River through this
evening, highest over far northeastern SD and west central MN.
Winter Weather Advisories and Blizzard Warnings in effect.

- Blowing and drifting snow with occasional visibility down below a
half mile into this evening. Some of the lowest visibilities of less
than a quarter mile at time will be over portions of west central
Minnesota, and the eastern slopes of the Prairie Coteau from Veblen
through Sisseton and Summit to Clear Lake late this afternoon into
this evening.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1030 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

No significant updates to the forecast this morning. The back edge
of the first wave of snow is moving through McPherson/Brown/Spink
counties now and conditions have improved significantly where the
snow stopped, so expect to end their advisory by 18Z. Where the
snow is falling in northeast SD and west-central MN, visibilities
are falling to 1/4-1/2 mile, but winds haven`t been up to blizzard
criteria for very long, so current headlines look good heading
into the afternoon. Do continue to have a concern for blizzard
conditions being another tier of counties to the southwest late
this afternoon and into the evening, as a second area of
precipitation pivots south out of ND and the low level wind field
increases slightly (gusts of 35-40kts). Will continue to consider
any potential upgrades through this afternoon.

Farther west, winds have been struggling to come up to advisory
level this morning and that matches up with the mean momentum
transfer gusts from the latest model runs. May be able to end some
of the wind advisory areas earlier over central SD with the
afternoon update.



UPDATE Issued at 613 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

Quick update to extend the Winter Weather Advisory for McPherson
county for the rest of the morning hours (to align with Brown
County) given the blowing snow potential. The counties near and west
of the MO River have been allowed to expire. The Winter Weather
Advisory for our east central counties has been extended to align
with the rest of northeastern SD, given the downslope enhanced
area that may keep visibility down less than 1/2 mile into this
evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 459 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

Strong winds will be the main story today, in between exiting low
pressure to our southeast and nearing high pressure from Montana and
southern Canada. Wind gusts of 40 to 55 mph are expected to continue
into this evening, before slowly diminishing.

The forecast precipitation amounts have increased once again, not as
high as the 00Z NAM which nearly triples the amounts, but closer to
a doubling of the previous forecast. It`s closer to a blend of the
HRRR, NSSLWRF and HREF. As a result, snowfall amounts have gone from
1-2" to closer to 3-7" over our MN counties. It was around a
doubling or more of snow for areas northeast of a line from Mobridge
to Faulkton and Redfield. Given the increased snowfall and strong
winds creating a higher risk of blizzard conditions (particularly
this afternoon into this evening), Traverse County has been upgraded
to a Blizzard Warning.

Snow this morning will come to an end over much of central South
Dakota, but continue over northeastern South Dakota and western
Minnesota through the evening. Falling and drifting snow will create
occasional visibility down below a half mile into this evening.
Areas along the eastern slopes of the Prairie Coteau, from Veblen
through Sisseton and Summit to Clear Lake make experience brief
blizzard-like conditions late this afternoon into this evening, with
visibilities down to a quarter mile or less at times. This includes
portions of the I-29 corridor. For those traveling into far eastern
North Dakota and much of western Minnesota, expect blizzard
conditions, with visibilities reduced to a quarter mile or less,
particularly this afternoon into this evening.

Steady to falling temperatures are expected today, mainly in the
single digits to around 10 degrees above zero. Temperatures will
bottom out in the single digits below and above zero tonight. Wind
chills of -15 to -25 from mid morning through at least early Monday
morning, moderating over central SD prior to daybreak Monday.

Despite temperatures in the single digits today and light snow,
strong winds gusting 40 to 55 mph and relative humidity around 50
percent will keep elevated fire weather concerns going for portions
of south central South Dakota today. High grassland fire danger
index values are over Stanley, Jones, and Lyman Counties today (the
areas that are expected to experience the least amount of
precipitation today).

Temperatures will moderate back into the teens to low 20s Monday
afternoon as winds continue to slowly diminish (gusting 15 to 25 mph
by the afternoon hours).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 459 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

Overnight Monday into Tuesday, the upper-level flow over SD becomes
more northwesterly as a trough sits to the east and a ridge builds
to the west. While this is happening, low level warm air advection
is helping to warm surface temperatures over central and
northeastern SD to be 10-15 degrees warmer than normal. This WAA
helps to provide some mixing, which will cause some of the stronger
winds aloft to reach the surface. While these winds won`t be as
strong as today`s winds, they will still be strong enough to cause
some drifting to patchy blowing snow over the Leola hills and the
Prairie Coteau, with 30-50% chance for gusts up around 30mph during
the afternoon in those areas.

The warm temperatures don`t last too long, as a surface low pressure
moves from Manitoba into MN during the day Tuesday, pushing cold air
back into northeastern SD Tuesday afternoon. This low pressure has
precipitation around it, which is forecast to stay mostly over MN.
However, some models have a bit of precipitation glancing far
northeastern SD and west central MN. There are very low chances for
precipitation over this area right now, but it should be kept in
mind when looking at upcoming model runs to see if the low`s track
shifts slightly and chances increase, especially since temperatures
will be going from warmer to colder during that time.

A cold frontal boundary attached to the low pressure in MN is
forecast to move into and through central and northeastern SD
Tuesday night into Wednesday. During the day Wednesday, the models
show a weak surface low pressure moving over central SD, tracking
along the edge of the cold front. This weak low pressure helps to
bring a little bit of WAA over central SD, which will keep
temperature at the surface warm while temperatures in the northeast
cool down. The interaction of the WAA and cold frontal boundary will
also help to cause a line of snow to develop. However, the models
still vary the location of this line, its timing, and the intensity
of the snowfall. This lowers confidence in the forecasting of the
line of snow, so it will need to be watched in the upcoming model
runs.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 523 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Snow is ongoing at all locations, with some improvement being
noted at PIR and MBG with conditions still in the MVFR category.
Light drifting snow was noted at MBG webcams, with less snow
overall at PIR creating less drifting. Winds will continue to gust
35-40kts through this evening, and only slowly weaken overnight
with gusts ending at PIR/MBG/ABR between 10-12Z Monday. Snow and
blowing snow will continue to be a concern at ABR/ATY through the
day and higher snow amounts and strong winds linger. IFR to near
LIFR visibilities are forecast until 02-04Z Monday.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for SDZ007-008-011-
     019>023.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM CST Monday for SDZ007-008-011-
     021.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening for
     SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-033>037-045-048-051.

     Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for SDZ005-006-018.

     Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for SDZ006-018.

     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for SDZ019-
     020-022-023.

MN...Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for MNZ039-046.

     Blizzard Warning until 3 AM CST Monday for MNZ039.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM CST Monday for MNZ046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SRF
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...06