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Forecast Discussion for Aberdeen, SD
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000 FXUS63 KABR 222331 AAA AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 531 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 524 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2020 See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night) Issued at 231 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2020 A weak area of low pressure and associated cold front will slide across the Northern Plains tonight. The cold front will pass through this CWA dry with only a shift in wind direction to the northwest expected. Half km winds increase through the night, peaking around 12Z Sunday. The winds, along with a modified Pacific airmass, should keep temperatures fairly mild tonight with lows in the 20s. A few valley areas could dip into the teens. Surface high pressure sliding south will bring slightly cooler temperatures on Sunday. Temps at 925 mb drop about 6C from 0Z Sunday to 18Z Sunday. Still, highs will warm into the 30s and 40s, or a few degrees above normal for this time of year. The high pressure, along with light winds, should allow for temperatures to drop into the teens and low 20s Sunday night. Increasing southeasterly winds may cause temperatures to become steady or slowly rise early Monday morning over the far western CWA. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 231 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2020 A clipper type low pressure system will track across the area Monday and Monday night. A fairly strong upper low will accompany this surface system, with the results being a period of light to moderate snowfall, mainly Monday night and Tuesday. Model solutions have become a bit more aggressive with this system, bringing slightly higher amounts to the area and bringing the snowfall further to the east. However, due to the fairly fast moving nature of the system, expect snowfall amounts to only range from 1 to 3 inches, with the higher amounts expected over the western and central portions of the CWA. A fairly tight pressure gradient develops behind the exiting low, creating the potential for blowing and drifting snow late Monday night into the day Tuesday. The remainder of the extended periods looks to be dry. Temperatures will still be mild Monday and Tuesday, with highs in the 30s Monday and in the mid to upper 20s on Tuesday. Cooler air moves in mid week, with highs in the upper teens to mid 20s Wednesday before another warm up begins. Highs will range from the lower 20s east to the mid 30s west on Thursday, from the upper 20s east to the lower 40s west on Friday, and from the mid 30s east to the upper 40s west on Saturday. After a mild night with lows in the 20s Monday night, will see a couple of chilly nights with lows in the single digits Tuesday night and Wednesday night. Thursday night and Friday night will feature lows in the teens to lower 20s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening) Issued at 524 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2020 Prevailing VFR conditions can be expected for all terminals through the valid TAF period. A weak cold front will slide across the region overnight, shifting winds to the northwest. All four terminals could potentially experience some low level wind shear between 06Z and 18Z. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Dorn SHORT TERM...SD LONG TERM...Parkin AVIATION...Dorn
Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS Aberdeen, SD (ABR) Office Forecast Discussions.
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