439
FXUS63 KABR 161125 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
525 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will remain well above normal today into Tuesday,
with afternoon highs threatening record highs in some locations.

- Precipitation chances (50-70%) return Tuesday. Rain is expected
initially, transitioning to snow Wednesday. Up to an inch of snow
accumulation is possible over northeastern South Dakota Wednesday.

- Another round of snow is expected Thursday through Thursday night.
There is a 30-40% chance to see two inches of snow or more over
central South Dakota, with chances decreasing moving northeast.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 523 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Updated for the 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 147 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

One last round of near-record temperatures today with highs in the
50s to low 60s expected. Dew points in the upper 20s over central
South Dakota will promote minimum afternoon humidity reaching as low
as 25-30%. Winds in that same area are not expected to gust above 20
miles per hour, so while conditions are somewhat marginal, Red Flag
conditions are not anticipated today. Tuesday also looks to be
fairly marginal on the fire weather front, although there is a bit
more uncertainty on whether Red Flag conditions will be met or not.
Wind gusts over central South Dakota will be a bit higher in the
afternoon, up to 20-25 miles per hour. A stationary front will
provide a fairly sharp gradient between increasing dew points (up to
the 40s) in northeastern/north central South Dakota and dew points
in the 20s over south central South Dakota. Therefore, the location
at which the frontal boundary sets up will also likely provide the
delineation between Red Flag conditions and not. Currently the best
chances to see Red Flag conditions are located outside the Aberdeen
forecast area, and HREF joint probabilities only reach up to 30%
over central South Dakota. Therefore due to the uncertainty, no
headline has been issued at this time, but it is entirely possible
that one will be needed as the forecast evolves.

Precipitation chances will return on Tuesday due to an upper-level
trough developing a low pressure center and bringing it into the
Northern Plains. Forecast QPF totals out of this system have held
fairly steady over the past 24 hours, with up to half an inch over
northeastern South Dakota through Wednesday. QPF decreases moving
southwest, with central South Dakota potentially seeing no
accumulation. Precip will begin as rain Tuesday afternoon through
Tuesday night, before the passage of a cold front will drop near-
surface temperatures enough to facilitate a transition to snow. By
the time the transition occurs however, the majority of the
precipitation expected out of this system will have fallen, leaving
only some light wraparound snow. Therefore, little accumulation is
expected, and most areas are expected to remain below an inch. The
caveat is that post-frontal winds are expected to increase thanks to
a low-level jet on the backside of the low pressure center, up to
roughly 30-40 knots at the surface in the afternoon. When combined
with falling snow, these winds may cause some reductions in
visibility.

Another round of precipitation is expected Thursday, induced by a
shortwave aloft. This time precip will be all snow, mainly located
over central South Dakota at this time. QPF with this second round
is expected to remain fairly low, corroborated by an NBM 25th/75th
spread of 0"-0.25" in liquid equivalent. Translated to snowfall
amounts (with SLRs averaging roughly 15:1 through the event), this
leaves parts of central South Dakota with the potential for up to
about 3" through Thursday. Winds will remain gusty (albeit a
decrease from Wednesday`s winds), reaching up 30-35 miles per hour
in the afternoon. Therefore could see some visibility reductions
once again from falling snow, during the Thursday morning commute in
particular.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 523 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Occasional 12kft
clouds will move eastward across northern SD this morning,
otherwise the skies should largely be clear. Expect increasing
mid-high clouds from the west tonight ahead of the upcoming system
that will bring rain to much of the area on Tuesday
afternoon/evening.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SRF
DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...SRF