095
FXUS63 KABR 141904
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
204 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A warming trend will continue over the next few days, peaking on
Thursday. Highs Thursday afternoon will reach the upper 70s to mid
80s, roughly 20 to 25 degrees above mid-April normals.

- The combination of warm temperatures and southerly winds of 25 to
30 miles per hour result in High to Very High Grassland Fire Danger.

- A cold front will move through the area Friday, leading to below
normal temperatures (highs in the 40s) and precipitation Friday and
Saturday. Precipitation starts out as rain Friday afternoon before
transitioning to snow as colder air moves in.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 202 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Above normal temperatures take hold this afternoon, with gentle
winds across much of the forecast area. The broader setup in place
is such that a jet streak aloft on the front side of a ridge clips
the eastern part of the forecast area, leading to some potential for
some isolated precipitation development over eastern South Dakota
through Wednesday. Little to no accumulation is expected out of any
development, as drier air near the surface will limit the ability of
these rain showers to reach the surface.

The warming trend will continue over the next couple of days,
peaking on Thursday. Southerly flow into the area bring an
additional boost of warm air advection, and will push 85-mb
temperatures to roughly 15-19 degrees Celsius, well above the 90th
percentile for this time of year. This translates to highs reaching
the low to mid 80s across most of the forecast area Thursday. These
surface temps are about 25 degrees above normal for mid-April, but
all climate sites currently look like they will fall short of any
record highs. The heat will help create elevated fire weather
conditions over much of the area on Thursday when combined with
gusty southerly winds. High to Very High Grassland Fire Danger is
expected, and it remains entirely possible that a Red Flag Warning
will be warranted.

A longwave trough will develop over the western CONUS, developing a
low pressure system into the Northern Great Plains Friday into
Saturday. Precipitation is expected with this system, developing
along and behind a cold front. The last couple of NBM runs have
trended the heaviest precipitation northward and out of the Aberdeen
forecast area, but still looking at ensemble median values around a
tenth of an inch through Saturday. Temperatures out ahead of the
front will be warm enough to support rain, but as the front brings
colder air into the region a transition to snow will occur. A well-
saturated profile will support snow to liquid ratios around 10:1 or
higher, but QPF is limited after the precipitation type transition
so only a couple of tenths of snowfall accumulation is currently
expected.

Behind the cold front, winds turn northwesterly and increase Friday
afternoon. NBM probability of Wind Advisory criteria of 45 mile per
hour gusts is holding steady for the moment, at a broad 10-30%
chance. These post-frontal northwesterly flow regimes tend to be
underdone, so the given probabilities are likely a bit low. On the
other hand, current model guidance doesn`t resolve much 40+ knot
support in the upper levels until Saturday rolls around, so gusts
mixing to the surface Friday may still be sub-advisory level. NBM
chances Saturday afternoon are fairly similar to Friday`s (10-30%
chance of Wind Advisory criteria), but with slightly better upper-
level wind speeds it may be more realistic to actually reach 45 mph
at the surface.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Lingering morning fog has dissipated, although a few minor
visibility reductions may linger for another hour or so in the
early afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through
the rest of the period. Some scattered low clouds will stick
around this afternoon, but bases are expected to be above MVFR
levels. Light and variable winds are expected late tonight
before solidifying in a southerly direction Wednesday morning.
There is some signal in model guidance for some minor visibility
reductions from fog, but confidence is low on anything
widespread or any visibility reductions to MVFR status or lower.
Therefore, no mention has been put into the TAFs at this time.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...BC