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Forecast Discussion for Aberdeen, SD
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318 FXUS63 KABR 080923 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 423 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Localized areas of fog over northeastern SD early this morning will dissipate by mid-morning. - There is a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms Wednesday afternoon as well as Thursday afternoon. - Seasonal temperatures are expected during the 7 day forecast, with the exception of Wednesday and Thursday, when high temperatures could bump back up into the low to mid 90s throughout and west of the James River valley. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 422 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 With leftover moisture from the precipitation yesterday as well as stable air and light, variable winds at the surface, pockets of fog have formed over northeastern SD, and is likely to continue to spread into the morning. Areas with lighter fog coverage will likely dissipate once the sun has risen, however other areas with heavier fog coverage might take until mid morning for the fog to dissipate. The upper-levels have a ridge starting to move east towards and then over SD today into Wednesday. This helps to develop and support high pressure forming at the surface over eastern SD. In addition to the high surface pressure, dry mid-level air moving into central and eastern SD helps to keep precipitation from developing today. This warm mid-level air will also help to increase the temperatures over the next coming days. This will lead to high temperatures Wednesday and Thursday getting into the low to mid 90s west of the Prairie Coteau with heat indicies forecast to reach the upper 90s to 100 in this area on Wednesday. Wednesday, the models show in the upper-levels, a ridge riding shortwave moving over western and central SD. At the same time, a lee of the Black Hills surface trough looks to develop over the I-90 corridor into Jones and Lyman counties as well as a lee of the Rockies surface trough extending into the far western Dakotas by the end of the day, though the location of these boundaries do vary slightly in the models. Southerly winds on Wednesday help to move warm, moist air into central SD along the edge of the high pressure over eastern SD. Models are showing increased instability Wednesday morning into the afternoon over central SD ranging from 2500 to 4000 J/kg. With the surface troughs providing a source of low level focus in the moist and unstable environment, isolated storms could develop over or near portions of central and north central SD by the end of peak heating. Deep layer shear of 30-35kts could cause these storms to become multicellular to supercellular in nature. Additionally, higher mid-level lapse rates (8+ C/km) could help in creating large hail/severe wind hazards in these storms. An eye will need to be kept on Wednesday to see where the surface troughs set up, as that is where storms could develop. The active pattern continues into Thursday and Friday as an upper- level shortwave moves over the state Thursday and an upper-level trough works its way in behind the shortwave on Friday. The ingredients needed for thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday appear to be present. However, deep layer shear needed for organized/severe thunderstorms appears to be lacking at this time. The probability of precipitation are in the forecast for the end of the week. Will need to continue to monitor instability and shear parameters as we get closer to Thursday and Friday. Behind the boundary on Friday, surface high pressure builds in again for the weekend with considerably cooler, drier air in place on Saturday. However, much warmer air could be working back in again by Monday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1223 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions and light winds will prevail at KPIR and KMBG for the next 24 hours. KABR will have lower visibilities from fog starting later tonight into the morning, and KATY is starting so show fog now. This will lead to IFR conditions for KABR and potentially LIFR conditions at KATY. Once the fog lifts, there will be VFR conditions though the remainder of the day with light winds. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...12 AVIATION...12 |
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