859
FXUS63 KABR 041730 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1130 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- More steady rain will continue through this afternoon over
  northeastern SD and west central MN.

- The chance for additional rainfall amounts of a half inch or
  more tonight through the day Wednesday is 45 to 70% along and
  east of the Sisseton Hills, with a 20 to 30% chance for an inch
  or more mainly east of I-29.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1124 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 18Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 851 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

The going forecast is doing okay. Not really seeing a need for
adjustments at this time. As shortwave energy, rotating around
the large occluded upper low centered over the
Minnesota/Wisconsin border, interacts with the TROWAL airstream,
TROWAL-forced bands of rain will continue to work south-
southwestward across the tri-state region of the Dakotas and
Minnesota. In between bands of rain, expect stratus deep enough
to support a bit of drizzle as well. Guidance continues to
support the upper circulation`s meandering eastward, eventually
taking these bands of rain with it. By 00-01Z, precipitation
should be exiting Deuel County in the far southeast corner of
the CWA. Breezy to windy northerly winds of 15 to 25 mph with
gusts up to 35 mph should persist into early this evening before
a gradual step-down occurs with the relaxing of the surface
pressure gradient in place. Sunshine is expected across the
Missouri Valley region (and points west) by early to mid
afternoon, so warmer high temperatures over that portion of the
CWA looks reasonable.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1243 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

As of 12:30 am CST, temperatures across the area are in the upper
30s to low 40s with winds out of the north between 15 and 20 mph
with gusts up to 30 mph. These gusts will be diminishing through the
next few hours. This afternoon, winds across northeast SD will gust
between 25 and 30 mph.

Precipitation continues today across northeast SD. The chance of
more than half an inch in additional accumulation is between 45 and
70% along and east of I-29. Chances farther west up to and around
the James River are between 15 and 30%. Due to the recent moisture,
patchy fog will be possible this morning across portions of central
SD mainly east of the Missouri River where winds are dying down.
Visibilities may be reduced to around a mile. Overall, pretty quiet
weather once we get past today. Temperatures through the end of the
week will be right around average before winds shift around to be
out of the south and raise temperatures to 10-15 degrees above
average. There could be some stronger wind gusts Saturday afternoon
over north central SD, around 25 to 30 mph. Otherwise, winds stay
relatively unremarkable through the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1124 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

IFR conditions continue at KATY in off and on light rain, with
intermittent drizzle happening in between the periods of light
rain. KPIR, KMBG and KABR have improved to VFR flying weather.
It`s possible that KATY may join the VFR crowd by late this
evening, if these low clouds continue to move away with the
light rain. Whichever TAF sites end up clearing off this
evening/overnight, these are the terminals carrying the greatest
potential for some light fog/frost. Diminishing winds and
copious amounts of surface/near surface moisture from the recent
rains set the table for light fog/frost development overnight.
REFS guidance indicates there is potential for another round of
sub-VFR cigs to push south into the region late tonight/early
Thursday morning, potentially impacting KMBG, KABR and KATY.
Throughout the TAF valid period, north winds will gradually
diminish, going from 15 to 25 knots down to 5 to 15 knots, with
the lighter winds out over the Missouri River valley and higher
winds out along the border of the Dakotas and Minnesota.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...10