460
FXUS63 KABR 180527
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1127 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winds out of the northwest will gust 45 to 55 mph early Sunday
  morning through late afternoon. A Wind Advisory has been issued
  for central to northeastern South Dakota and west central
  Minnesota.

- Off and on light snow showers are expected Sunday. Snow
  accumulations up to 2 inches are expected, with highest amounts
  in west central Minnesota. The combination of snow and gusty
  winds will lead to drifting and blowing snow that will reduce
  visibility. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for
  central to northeastern South Dakota and west central Minnesota.

- Wind chills of -15 to near -30 are forecast Monday morning.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 600 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Flurries were taken out of the forecast through the next couple of
days. Updates to the chances of precipitation may be needed for
late tonight and Sunday as the time nears. We`ll also be
monitoring model trends for precipitation as the 15-20:1 snow to
liquid ratios will result in the quick accumulation of any snow
that falls.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 140 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

The arctic airmass in place today is set to receive some
reinforcements on Sunday. A weak sfc front swings through this
evening ahead of an arctic front/Canadian sfc high that builds in
from the northwest Sunday evening. Two to three potent shortwaves
ride down the northwest flow aloft late tonight into Sunday. All of
these features will work together to generate snow showers, gusty
northwest winds and blowing snow on Sunday. Issued a winter weather
advisory for the whole cwa Sunday when intermittent whiteout
conditions are possible.

Because of the NBM`s known biases in low QPF/high pop events, leaned
toward WPC QPF for Sunday. This increases snow accumulations to
around 2 inches from the Sisseton Hills into west central MN.
Additional snow on the ground could lead to more persistent blowing
snow concerns. However, the blsn tool still tops out below blizzard
due to the intermittent falling snow. It will be something to
monitor closely as the winds increase Sunday morning. The other
question revolves around wind gust strength. NBM probs show a 40 to
60 percent chance for winds in excess of 55 mph Sunday. Steep low
level lapse rates and 50 to 60 kts at 700 mb (40 to 50 kts at 850
mb) may result in wind gusts being underforecast. Blended in NBM
90th and still have values below High Wind Warning criteria. With a
wind advisory already in place and the possibility of stronger than
advisory level winds didn`t want to can the wind advisory for the
winter wx advisory only to end up needing a warning. Future shifts
can now just upgrade the wind advisory where and when necessary if
winds begin overachieving early Sunday.

Colder air and gusty winds remain in place into Monday. However, it
looks like wind chills stay above advisory criteria. The pattern of
snow showers/wind looks to repeat Tuesday into Wednesday with
another arctic front settling in on Friday.

This period will continue to feature northwesterly flow aloft across
the Northern Plains through the majority of the upcoming week.
Within the flow there will be embedded shortwave troughs that may
periodically move through the region that won`t provide much in the
way of any sensible weather. However, one wave of note we`ll have to
keep an eye will be on Tuesday into Wednesday when guidance is in
fair agreement indicating a disturbance will track through the area.
At this time, this upper trough will have the best chance for
bringing in some light precipitation to the area. In house ensemble
guidance continues to paint a 20-30 percent chance for light snow
across portions of northeast SD and west central MN the latter half
of Tuesday into Tuesday night. This system doesn`t appear at the
moment that it will be a blockbuster event. Moisture values appear
to be limited but enough to produce some light snowfall. NBM
probabilities of a 24 hour 1 inch or greater snowfall ending early
Wednesday range between 20-40 percent along and east of a line from
Mobridge to Redfield to Brookings. Beyond this time frame, guidance
remains inconsistent with the timing and placement of any additional
waves that may deliver potential for more precipitation, but the end
of the week seems to be the most favored time our area could see the
next chance.

As far as temperatures go through the period, Monday will start off
cold with temperatures in the single digits above and below zero and
wind chill values between 15-25 below zero. Mild air will try and
sneak into the area on Tuesday ahead of that next upper trough where
we could see daytime readings close to normal. The latter half of
the week will feature gradually cooling temperatures back below
normal with the potential for another shot of arctic air returning
late in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1127 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will quickly deteriorate to MVFR ceilings at
ABR/ATY with -SN are expected when a north to south oriented band
of snow moves in, with -sn lingering behind the band through
07-09Z. Winds will increase and shift out of the northwest shortly
at MBG and the rest of the forecast area overnight with gusts of
35-45kts during the daytime hours. MVFR ceilings are expected
Sunday, and MVFR to IFR or lower visibility will be possible as
light snow and winds combine to create blowing snow.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM CST /2 AM MST/ to 9 PM CST /8
     PM MST/ Sunday for SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051.

     Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM CST Sunday for SDZ006>008-011-
     018>023.

     Wind Advisory from 4 AM CST /3 AM MST/ to 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/
     Sunday for SDZ003-015-033-045.

     Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Sunday for SDZ004-005-009-
     010-016-017-034>037-048-051.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 9 PM CST Sunday for MNZ039-
     046.

     Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM CST Sunday for MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...06
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...06