051
FXUS63 KABR 111944
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
244 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Continued dry conditions today, with relative humidity falling
  to 15 to 30% and southerly winds gusting 30-40 mph will bring
  high to very high Grassland Fire Danger Index values to the
  region. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for portions of
  mainly central SD this afternoon.

- A Wind Advisory is in place Tuesday for northeastern SD and
  west central MN, mainly near the ND border for strong winds
  out of the northwest gusting 35 to 45 mph, with a few
  localized locations gusting to near 50 mph.

- A Red Flag Warning is in place for portions of central to
  northeastern SD Tuesday for ongoing warm and dry conditions
  combined with the gusty winds.

- Winds Thursday will be out of the south gusting 35 to 50 mph.
  Elevated fire weather conditions are expected.

- High temperatures through Saturday will be in the 70s and 80s,
  highest Thursday near record high temperatures are forecast
  Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Above normal temperatures, limited precipitation with minimum
relative humidity most days in the 15 to 35% range, along with
periods of strong winds will keep elevated fire weather concerns
going when winds increase. Blowing dust will also be a concern on
the highest wind days, mainly Tuesday and Thursday west of the
Sisseton Hills.

Normal high temperatures for this time of year are in the upper 60s.
Highs over the next 7 days will be in the 70s and 80s, peaking
Thursday when a few low 90s are expected west of the James River.

The surface weather map early this afternoon shows 1000mb low
pressure over southeastern Saskatchewan with a warm front extending
south across the western Dakotas. The strong southerly winds
continue ahead of this feature, with gusts 30-40mph. The trough will
/cold front will shift over our western counties by 00Z, near the
James River around 03Z, and to our east shortly after 06Z Tuesday.
Showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible as this feature
sinks east-southeast. A few of the strongest showers could produce
gusty winds over our southwestern counties this evening (DCAPE
values over 1k J/kg). While diminishing and shifting winds will be
the main result of the frontal passage, cooler and drier air will
also move in. After dewpoints in the 40s late this afternoon, they
will fall into and remain in the 30s through Wednesday night. Frost
headlines will not be needed tonight as temperatures only fall into
the upper 40s to near 50 degrees.

Dry high pressure across MT Tuesday will slide over western SD by
the end of the day, with a strong pressure gradient remaining in
between the exiting low shifting over WI and nearing high. The 40-70%
probability of wind gusts over 45 mph Tuesday is mainly confined to
east of the MO River from the Leola Hills east through Marshall
County and portions of the Sisseton Hills. This is where a Wind
Advisory has been issued. Adjustments may be needed. A secondary area
may be anywhere from Edmunds and Faulk down through Hyde/Hand and
east with sustained winds nearing 30mph during the daytime hours.
Fire weather wise, temperatures Tuesday will be lower but so will
dewpoints. The highest potential of reaching Red Flag Warning
criteria will be over Brown/Spink Counties and west. Increased
mixing could bring a few more of our eastern counties into the
discussion as well.

The surface ridge moving in from MT will be across the area late
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, giving us a bit of relief from
the stronger winds. Winds increase late Wednesday afternoon through
the night from west to east. Relative humidity recoveries Wednesday
night will be 45-55% over much of the area while closer to 65%
across west central MN.

The potential for wind gusts over 45 mph is increasing for Thursday,
now 50-80% between the MO River to the MN border as the next
elongated surface trough to our west moves across the western
Dakotas Thursday morning with a deeper 985mb surface low over south
central Canada. It is looking more likely that Wind Advisory
headlines will be needed Thursday. Near record highs are forecast
Thursday over central SD. Highs will be mainly in the 80s (or nearly
20 degrees above normal).

Showers and thunderstorms will return to the forecast Thursday
night, with more unsettled weather (mainly late afternoon into the
evening hours through the upcoming weekend. Widespread precipitation
(40% chance) returns late Saturday night into Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will continue through the afternoon and into the
tonight with high clouds moving over the terminals during the
afternoon. Sustained south southeasterly winds this afternoon
will be up around 15 to 20 kts with gusts of 25 to 35 kts. The
winds will decrease slightly through the evening before shifting
to be from the northwest and picking back up again tonight into
Tuesday morning. The gusts tonight will be up around 20 to 25
kts and will increase in the morning. There is also the threat
of low level wind shear tonight do to stronger winds aloft, up
around 40 to 45 kts, for a few hours tonight until the stronger
winds mix down to the surface.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for SDZ005>008.
     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for SDZ004>007-
     009-010-016>018-034>037-048-051.
     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
     SDZ033-035-045-048.
MN...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...12
DISCUSSION...06
AVIATION...12