499
FXUS63 KABR 071735 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1135 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures increase Sunday (highs 25 to 30 degrees above
  normal). West winds of 25 to 35 mph with a frontal passage
  overnight will heighten the risk for fires and erratic fire
  behavior. Across central and north central South Dakota the fire
  danger will be rated Very High.

- Precipitation chances of 40-70 percent for Monday night into
  Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1133 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Aviation discussion updated below for the 18Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 1013 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Stratus deck continues to erode across the eastern CWA and have
been adjusting sky grids this morning to account for changing
satellite trends. Otherwise, looking at mostly sunny skies today
with highs generally in the 40s and 50s. Will have to watch snow
covered areas and see how temps respond and if they fall a bit
short of highs. But, will certainly have plenty of sunshine with
an increasing sun angle and not too much snow to melt through.
Will leave forecast highs alone for the time being and see how
temps respond over the next few hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Deformation band precipitation has departed and thus headlines
dropped. Stratus remains across the James valley and points east.
Westerly low level flow has already become established for the
Missouri valley region.

At the surface behind the system, a surface ridge extending from a
high across the Southern Plains shifts winds to the west southwest
across  the entire CWA, which will enhanced mixing to scour out any
leftover colder air. 850mb temperatures top out in the single digits
above zero. A trough comes through late in the day to enhance mixing
as well. A backdoor front skates into the northeast overnight but is
rapidly deflected eastwards Sunday as the next clipper crosses North
Dakota. Being to the south with warm advection, winds won`t be too
strong, with NBM indicating about 25-30kts. 850mb temperatures
increasing to +11 to +15C, along with westerly flow means a warm dry
airmass and we will need to address fire weather concerns.

A cold front follows for Sunday night, putting us on the cold side
of the Arctic front for Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday. NBM 25th-75th
range in temperatures increases this period, suggesting some
uncertainty as to how cold it will be those days. The range is
highest on Tuesday/Wednesday at about 10 degrees.

At this time, the pattern, which is dominated by zonal flow with a
cut off low over the Desert Southwest, begins to re-integrate.  As
this upper level low shifts east Monday night, a jet streak over the
Central Plains links up with a stronger 130kt jet overhead. This
phasing may provide ascent ahead of a northern stream shortwave. GFS
is still generating a banded feature along the ND/SD state line,
which is also in the Canadian and NAM but not the EC. NBM still
supports snow as the predominant p-type, though it should also be
noted that the spread in liquid equivalent remains quite high at
between 0 and 1/3 of an inch between the 25th and 75th percentiles.
Thats not a surprise given ensembles out that far would have a
difficult time with placement of such a feature if it does in fact
exist in our CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1133 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. Low-level wind
shear (LLWS) will be an issue during the overnight hours into
early Sunday morning and inserted mention of this.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...TMT