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Forecast Discussion for Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 271125 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
525 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2023

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 326 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2023

Snow showers/flurries will exit to the south and east early this
morning. Currently, they are confined to the James Valley and east.
Breezy to windy northwest winds and cold air advection are kicking
in behind the showers. Advisory criteria and some brief incursions
into high wind warning criteria persist along the leading edge of
the caa. Temperatures are falling below freezing again. Was
considering canning the winter weather advisory across the east, but
portions of the I-29 corridor never climbed too high into the 30s on
the warm air push. While blowing snow is no longer really a concern,
icing on the roads post-precip is certainly still possible.

Winds will diminish fairly quickly through the day as the front
progresses east. Another sfc low will move into the Plains tonight.
The H7 low will skirt along the SD/NE border. Coupled with some
shortwave energy, this will be the focus area for some moderate to
heavy banded snow. Latest model runs have shifted snow and snow
accumulations farther north. Issued a winter weather advisory for
Jones and Lyman counties to start. This may need some adjustments if
northern trends persist (or if they retreat). As it is, Lyman is on
the edge of needing a warning. While there may be some blowing snow,
the main concern is accumulations of 3 to 6 inches of snow.

Arctic high pressure will build in from the northwest on Saturday,
pushing the precip south with the front edge of the arctic front.
Highs on Saturday will be 20 to 30 degrees below average, topping
out in the negative single digits to low teens.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 326 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2023

Will start under an Arctic airmass with the center of a 1040mb high
over northern Montana and a ridge extending east into the eastern
Dakotas and western Minnesota. Low level northerly flow undercuts
some mild/low level moisture associated with a weak shortwave
embedded at the base of a broader northeast to southwest oriented
longwave trough (this is one in a series of weak waves that round
the base of the trough). Maybe a little light snow for the extreme
southwest CWA but otherwise the Arctic airmass will be the main
driver of weather conditions across the CWA. 850mb temperatures are
already a standard deviation below climo, and thus don`t anticipate
much upward movement in temperatures through Monday...when the core
of the coldest airmass begins to migrate east. Late Monday, another
wave ejects into the Dakotas, and this stronger wave will bring a
little milder air eastwards. This is kind of a new trend as the
longwave trough reorients and now it appears that the next few
airmasses will be much less intensely cold than what was in previous
forecasts. Thats not to say there won`t be a glancing shot of arctic
air for late Wednesday, but its minor in comparison and the
deterministic GFS is much more aggressive compared to the
EC/Canadian and the GEFS mean...meaning entrenched arctic air will
probably be less of an issue outside of the start of the work week
with a trend towards climo for late in the week, along with a mostly
dry forecast.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 523 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2023


Gusty northwest winds will slowly diminish through the morning.
MVFR cigs will improve briefly this afternoon before filling in
again this evening. The clouds will move back in as a system
brings snow to central SD including KPIR. KPIR is also expected to
have reduced vsby in falling snow.


SD...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for SDZ007-008-011-

     Wind Advisory until 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ this morning for

     Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
     Saturday for SDZ045-048.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for MNZ039-046.



LONG TERM...Connelly

Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS Aberdeen, SD (ABR) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

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