361
FXUS63 KABR 010113 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
813 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler temperatures on the way for the end of the week with
  daytime readings 3 to 9 degrees below normal Thursday and Friday.

- A 20-40% chance for light rain late Thursday into early Friday for
  mainly central SD.

- Temperatures remain below normal through the upcoming weekend
  before rebounding back to normal if not above normal the first
  part of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 801 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

As of 8am, temperatures range in the mid to upper 60s with
dewpoints in the 50s. Satellite continues to indicate mid to
high clouds, filtering in from the south, over much of the CWA
per upper level low/remnants of Polo along with clouds moving in
from the northwest associated with a cold front. Overall dry
conditions expected through late tonight, however, some of the
CAMs try to indicate light spotty showers possible across
portions of central SD with the cold front through early
Thursday morning. Latest NBM keeps pops out of the forecast with
lower levels remaining dry per RAP soundings. Otherwise,
forecast remains on track.

UPDATE Issued
at 610 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Updated discussion for the 00Z TAFs below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Afternoon conditions across the forecast area indicate fairly light
to modest winds and mild temperatures for late September. Readings
have climbed into the mid 70s to low 80s underneath mostly sunny to
partly cloudy skies. The northern half of the CWA remains sandwiched
in between a couple areas of cloud cover. To the south, thickening
high level cloudiness is streaming northward across southern parts
of the state into portions of south central and east central SD.
This is associated with a low pressure system that will pull
northeast into the Central Plains tonight. Scattered low to mid
level clouds are drifting east and southeast out of MT into ND this
afternoon in response to a sfc cold front that is moving southeast.

This cold front is progged to slip south and east through the CWA
late tonight into early Thursday. Mainly dry conditions are expected
as winds turn more north to northwesterly overnight. A few CAM
solutions want to generate some light shower activity on either side
of the midnight hour tonight across the ND/SD border area. BUFKIT
soundings look meager for precipitation so went with a dry forecast
for now. But, something to keep an eye on for later shifts. A cold
air advection patter sets up behind the fropa. 850mb temps drop from
the teens into the single digits C between this evening and daybreak
Thursday. A much cooler air mass will be in place on Thursday with
daytime readings only expected to reach the upper 50s to mid 60s.
Some sunshine is expected but if any cloud cover persists long
enough through the day, those locales could remain cooler than that.
With the center of a sfc ridge still off to our northwest during the
day, a breezy northerly wind may make it feel even cooler. This high
pressure system will track across the area Thursday night leading to
a cool overnight with readings in the 40s and perhaps a few upper
30s along the ND/SD border. A weak mid level disturbance and upper
jet streak traversing through parts of western/central SD along with
a little mid level warm air advection may be enough to kick off some
light rain showers across mainly central SD Thursday night into
Friday morning. Rainfall amounts at this point look to be spotty and
meager.

A warm air advection pattern returns toward the end of the week as
the sfc high slips farther away from the region to the south and
east and the next disturbance approaches from the northwest. The
warmer air mass doesn`t quite make it into the area in time on
Friday so anticipate temperatures to remain on the cooler side of
normal. A sfc low and associated cold front will move through the
Dakotas on Saturday. Mainly dry conditions are now expected locally
with the bulk of the moisture remaining to our north and east. Temps
may rebound closer to normal Saturday, depending on the timing of
the fropa. Otherwise, we`ll see cooler conditions prevail through
the end of the weekend. Temperatures are then progged to rebound
closer to normal if not above normal the first half of next week as
another sfc high pressure system shifts east of our region and the
next upper level trough and associated cold front works across
southern Canada by late in the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 610 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR cigs are forecast through the end of the TAF period. Mid to
high clouds will be the main concern over the region per a
couple of disturbances passing over the area. Overall, the
forecast remains dry, however, some models indicate the
potential for spotty light showers late tonight through Thursday
impacting mainly KMBG and KPIR. Due to low confidence, did not
add them into the TAF. Winds will remain out of the northwest to
northeast through Thursday evening.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MMM
DISCUSSION...Vipond
AVIATION...MMM