894
FXUS63 KABR 241311
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
811 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a Slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for portions of south
central and northeastern SD this afternoon and evening and a
Marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for the remainder of central and
northeast SD into west central MN. The main hazards include golf
ball size hail and 60-75 mph wind gusts.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 811 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Updated the ongoing forecast for fog across portions of central
SD. Otherwise the ongoing forecast remains mainly unchanged at
this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 117 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

As of 1 AM CDT, storms are staying in western SD and out of our
forecast area. Temperatures are in the 60s with winds out of the
east to southeast at around 10 mph. A warm front followed by a cold
front will move across the region throughout the day and into the
evening hours. This warm front will help temperatures be a little
warmer today with highs in the 80s to low 90s, warmest across
central SD.

The cold front will help pop off some thunderstorms this evening
across central SD that will move southeast and across the area.
There could be a second wave that moves down out of North Dakota
closer to midnight Tuesday morning. There is a Slight risk (level 2
out of 5) for portions of south central SD and portions of
northeastern SD and a Marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe
storms across the remainder of the forecast area. The main hazards
for these storms will be golf ball size hail and 60-75 mph wind
gusts. PWAT values are around 1.25" which is in the 97th NAEFS
percentile so some brief heavy downpours are possible as well,
although as a secondary threat. Overall chance of storms is 30-40%
with the first round along the Missouri River and east to the James
River. With the second round after midnight, chances across far
northeastern SD increase to 40-60%. Our next widespread chance for
storms will be Thursday evening into Friday as a low coming off the
Rockies pushes out high pressure. Saturday and Sunday evenings could
be stormy as well as we return to a more active pattern, but
confidence on severe weather is low at this time.

Temperatures after today return to right about normal, with a slight
increase towards the end of the period. Winds Tuesday behind the
cold front could gust up to 35 mph in northern SD. That cold
front also looks to bring another round of elevated smoke to
the area for Tuesday. There could be a band of higher
concentrations over northeast SD, but little to no smoke is
expected at the surface.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 611 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the next 24
hours except in any heavier showers or thunderstorms this
evening.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...06
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...20