744
FXUS63 KABR 061737 AAD
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1137 AM CST Tue Jan 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another weak system moves across north central/northeast South
  Dakota today, with very light rain/sprinkles and temperatures
  near freezing so possibly a light glaze of ice.

- Small chances (~20%) for snow Friday night, but only minor
  amounts less than a half inch expected at this time, if
  anything at all.

- Generally above normal temperatures in the extended period (Thu -
  Tue) with 30s and 40s for highs (except Saturday).

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1134 AM CST Tue Jan 6 2026

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 18Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 934 AM CST Tue Jan 6 2026

With freezing sprinkles or very light freezing rain
occurring/developing across north central South Dakota, made a few
adjustments to PoPs and weather types to emphasize freezing rain
p-type as happening as opposed to "possible", and sent out a
Special Weather Statement highlighting areas of concern.
Precipitation is more convective-looking in nature than just
widespread WAA-forced light precipitation. But, with cloud bases
above 10kft, not expecting ice accumulation-making ability to be
very efficient this morning. Also, fast-moving nature of this
precipitation suggests there will not be enough "residence time"
of freezing precipitation, again, limiting the overall potential
for this freezing rain to produce "hazardous (icy) travel"
conditions. Updates are out.

UPDATE Issued at 734 AM CST Tue Jan 6 2026

Remaining Dense Fog Advisory was cancelled for Big Stone and
Traverse counties as satellite and web cams reveal much of the fog
has dissipated. Still dealing with a few patches of fog over the
Glacial Lakes region and have dealt with that in the
grids/forecast, but does not appear to be widespread enough to
warrant headlines at this time. Will continue to monitor.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 308 AM CST Tue Jan 6 2026

Another weak trough will zip across the CWA today, and again its
mainly a short period of light precip occurring in the mid levels
above a dry layer and a near surface inversion with temperatures
around the freezing mark. As such, we`ll again possibly see another
chance at light freezing rain/sprinkles. Otherwise the upper level
flow is zonal and the surface pressure pattern remains weak, with
light westerly low level flow. 850mb temperatures are mild, but not
quite as warm as 24 hours ago. The slightly cooler airmass aloft is
countered by the better mixing direction. Mid day cloud cover will
give way to breaks in the afternoon, so still looking at above
average temperatures today. Mid clouds move back in tonight, and the
clouds in concert with that light westerly flow, CAMS are less
aggressive on the fog redevelopment in comparison to previous
nights. Another gap in clouds for early Wednesday gradually fills in
as another shortwave approaches the region from the northwest.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 308 AM CST Tue Jan 6 2026

Still looking at a fairly quiet extended period shaping up across
the region, with the only thing to watch (in terms of precip) being
the upper trough moving eastward across the area Friday/Friday
night. This trough does look to bring snow chances to the eastern
CWA, but current forecast remains on the low side with only about 20
percent showing up in latest NBM runs. Little if any accumulations
expected either. Grand Ensemble probability for greater than 0.5in
is generally less than 20 percent. Beyond this system, forecast
remains dry as models showing a lack of anything significant moving
through the region at this time.

Main highlight in the short term actually seems to be the continued
mild temperatures through the period. NBM continues to show highs
through the period in the 30s and 40s, with the only setback being
on Saturday as an area of colder air drops south over the region
behind a departing cold front. Does not appear to be arctic air by
any means, but highs do drop back into the 20s and 30s. And, like 24
hours ago, models continue to show this being a brief visit of cold
air as 925mb temps bounce back into the single digits above zero C
Sunday into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1134 AM CST Tue Jan 6 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast to persist for the next 24 hours. Very
light snow/freezing rain is departing the KABR terminal, and
should be pushing through the KATY terminal within the next couple
of hours. Short-lived, fast-moving band of snow/freezing rain,
maybe lasting all of an hour. Otherwise, dry conditions on a light
west or southwest wind under 10 knots is expected.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...10