519
FXUS63 KABR 181923
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
123 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Intermittent snow showers taper off this evening. Visibilities in
blowing snow are expected to improve as winds diminish early this
evening.

- A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for central and
portions of northeastern South Dakota due to the combination of snow
and gusty winds that will lead to drifting and blowing snow,
reducing visibility at times.

- Winds out of the northwest will gust 45 to 55 mph through late
afternoon. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for central to
northeastern South Dakota and west central Minnesota.

- Wind chills of -15 to -25 are expected Monday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 122 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Most areas are seeing intermittent visibility reductions in blowing
snow this afternoon, generally down to around a mile in town,
especially east of the Missouri River. Open areas east of the James
Valley have reported/shown less than 1/2 mile. Winds are also
increasing quickly this afternoon as pressure rises push south.
Gusts above high wind warning criteria have been isolated with a
couple gusts above 60 mph peppered in Corson and Edmunds county.

Expect snow showers to start tapering off after 21z from north to
south. Winds will take a little longer to diminish but are expected
to be in the 10 to 20 mph range by Monday morning. Wind chills also
are not expected to hit advisory criteria falling to around 15 to 25
below, coldest along the Coteau.

Main concern after all of today`s weather exits turns to
Tuesday/Wednesday. A shortwave trough clips the region late Tuesday.
Northwest winds aloft with this clipper are not overly strong -
about 45 kts at 700 mb with 70 kts in the jet streak. This system
also seems more isothermal with the initial push on Tuesday.
Wednesday, however, there is stronger caa and increased mixing to
850 mb of some 40 kt winds. A 1030s high moves in from the northwest
on Wednesday afternoon. Highest chances for blowing snow occur
Wednesday morning. It could be an ugly commute.

After mid week, models start to diverge with little consistency
regarding precip chances, though most solutions bring in a colder
airmass for Friday into the weekend.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1124 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

A mix of MVFR/IFR conditions will continue with occasional IFR
vsby as snow showers and strong northwest winds continue through
this afternoon. When the system exits after 21z, conditions should
quickly improve with winds more slowly diminishing overnight.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Blizzard Warning until 9 PM CST this evening for SDZ007-008-011-
     021.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ this evening
     for SDZ003>006-009-010-015>020-022-023-033>037-045-048-051.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening for
     SDZ003>006-009-010-015>020-022-023-033>037-045-048-051.

MN...Blizzard Warning until 9 PM CST this evening for MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...20