426
FXUS63 KABR 261714
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1214 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There will be some scattered rain showers through the rest of the
afternoon over portions of northeastern SD.

- The probability of exceeding wind advisory criteria (sustained
winds of greater than 30 mph and/or gusts of 45 mph or more) is
between 40-60% west of the James valley Saturday.

- There is Slight (2 of 5) to Marginal Risk (1 of 5) for severe
weather Saturday. Confidence is low on storm development due to very
warm temperatures above the surface. If storms do form, all hazards
will be possible, and it will be in the evening to overnight hours.

- There is a Marginal (1 of 5) risk for severe weather Sunday along
the ND/SD border. Again, confidence is low for storm development
during the day, but once we move into the evening and overnight
hours, severe storms will be possible. Main hazards are large hail
and isolated wind gusts of 60 mph.

- Above normal temperatures for the weekend and next week.
Temperatures are forecast into the 90s and dewpoints well into the
60s. This will push heat index values into the mid to upper 90s,
possibly past 100 degrees with increased risk for heat related
illnesses.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

As of about 12:15 PM CDT, we still have some very light showers
lingering over northeastern SD. Temperatures are in the low to
mid 70s with winds out of the southeast at 15-20 mph gusts of
25-35 mph west of the James River and closer to 10-15 mph gusts
of 20-25 mph. Highs today will reach the upper 70s around and
east of the Prairie Coteau/Sisseton Hills, and low 80s
elsewhere.

There is a Slight risk (level 2 out of 5) of severe storms over far
north central SD and a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for areas
along and west of a line Fergus Falls, MN to Sisseton to Henry to
about De Smet. While confidence still remains low on storm
development during the day, storms later in the evening Saturday
into early Sunday morning will be possible as temperatures above the
surface cool and storms are able to break the cap. Quite a few of
the AI models are showing increased probability of severe weather.
Most of the CAMs, if they have storms, show them over central SD in
and around the slight risk. The RAP has some storms into the James
Valley but this seems a bit overdone. With the storms that get
going, all hazards will be possible. There is a 5% tor area along
and west of a line from east of Eureka south to Fort Thompson. Hail
and wind cover approximately the same area as the marginal risk with
increased probability of hail west of Gettysburg and Fort Thompson.
Expect wind gusts of 60+ mph, and hail up to 2" in diameter with a
couple tornadoes possible Saturday evening into the overnight hours.
Sunday has a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe storms as
well. This is mainly along the ND/SD border and again, during the
day we are going to be fairly well caped but storms could break
through later in the evening into the overnight hours.

Still looking at warm temperatures and more humidity for the end of
the weekend into next work week. Highs are forecast to be in the
upper 80s to 90s with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s This
will put heat index values in the upper 90s to over 100 degrees
especially over eastern SD. HeatRisk is in the moderate to major
categories for the most part with a couple areas in the extreme
category for Friday. For areas in moderate to major, those without
access to cooling and hydration will be affected. In the areas in
the extreme category (far eastern SD) this will affect anyone
without cooling/hydration as well as health systems, industries, and
infrastructure.

Winds Saturday from the NBM have a 40-60% chance of exceeding wind
advisory criteria (45 mph) west of the James Valley. Other ensembles
aren`t as excited about these stronger winds. Along with the low
pressure moving into the area, the winds, and storm potential on
Saturday, there also looks to be an area of elevated smoke rotating
into the area from the southwest. This will result in some milky
skies but shouldn`t affect the surface at all.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

MVFR ceilings continue at KPIR and KMBG cor a couple more hours
before becoming VFR overnight. Winds will also pick up in a
couple hours for these sites and not diminish overnight. MVFR
ceilings move in for all sites towards the end of the period.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...13