405
FXUS63 KABR 220817
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
317 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019

Sfc high pressure will build over the region today bringing mostly
sunny skies. However, the upper trough over the Dakotas will have
ample shortwave activity associated with it. Instability during the
afternoon will help to create some diurnal cu. Only the HRRR shows
any shower development with these cu, so left out any mention of
precip for the moment. Temperatures under the upper trough will only
top out near 70. Clear skies and light winds tonight will see temps
fall into the 40s.

Upper ridging will build in on Monday pushing temps back up into the
upper 70s.


.LONG TERM...(Monday Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019

Dry weather should continue through the day Tuesday. This will be
when a weak cold front pushes west to east across the area,
stretching from the parent low over far northern Manitoba/western
Hudson Bay. It should be to our east by the evening hours. With most
of the moisture to our north, with the enhanced energy from both the
surface low and broad 500mb trough, it will be difficult to have
more than slight chance pops. The main change for Wednesday will be
slightly cooler temperatures, with highs in the 60s.

A brief 500mb ridge will slide overhead Thursday morning, before the
500mb low over the southwestern states slides across CO/NM and into
the main trough encompassing the western two-thirds of the country
Thursday night. The surface pattern will be quickly evolving
Thursday night, with a northern low over Manitoba or ND, and another
low over eastern CO/western KS. We will be in between the 2, with a
cold front likely swinging across the cwa Thursday night into Friday
morning. Even much of the thunderstorms activity should remain
tethered closer to the southern low (MUCAPE values briefly jump to
around 500J/kg around 06Z Friday over our SE counties). High
pressure should quickly build in from the northwest Friday afternoon
into Saturday. We won`t be able to completely get rid of the chance
of showers though, as sizable 500mb trough sets up shop over the
western U.S., with southwesterly flow remaining across the Northern
and Central Plains through the end of September and into early
October.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019

VFR skies/vsbys are expected through Sunday.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...Wise