651
FXUS63 KABR 201850
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
150 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 30-80 percent chance of 0.50 inches or more of
  rainfall occurring Friday into Friday night.

- High temperatures in the 60s to low 70s through Saturday, then
  turning warmer Sunday through next week (about 10 to 20
  degrees above normal with highs in the 80s to near 90).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 149 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

At 1 PM CDT, skies are sunny over pretty much the entire CWA and
temperatures are warming through the 50s and 60s. South winds 10 to
25 mph with gusts up to 35 are developing over the CWA, with the
higher-end sustained winds/gusts noted across the Missouri River
valley region of the CWA. Seeing an expanding cu/alto-cu deck
forming out across southwestern and south central SD, associated
with some ongoing afternoon showers. The short-term/rapid update
model solutions continue to hint at a little bit of this showery
precipitation working up into the southwestern forecast zones by
late this afternoon.

Surface high pressure will be parked over the Great Lakes region for
a couple of days, not moving much do to the semi-stagnant nature of
the upper level steering flow pattern. Models do depict, though,
that longwave troughing/upper energy over the Rockies will make its
way out on the central/northern plains on Friday. There should be no
lack of low/mid-level moisture available for the energy in this
trough to work with to generate the next round of semi-widespread
rain showers/embedded thunderstorms. Presently, there is a 30-80
percent chance of the CWA seeing 0.50in or more of rainfall with
this system on Friday.

The pattern beyond Friday gets a bit complex. Nearly zonal flow
aloft tries to set up over the weekend, only to be negated by upper
level ridging across the nation`s mid-section (with upper troughs
bookending it along the coasts). Eventually, the pattern could
become quite blocky/split-flowish, with this upper ridge (ridge
axis) sliding a bit east of this CWA as longwave troughiness sets up
over the western third of the CONUS. If this scenario (split flow
never looks the same one day to the next) were to happen, the deep,
nearly meridional, southerly/southwesterly flow pattern would
establish the potential for multiple days of unsettled weather over
the Dakotas.

Spring is in full swing with these most recent beneficial (not
drought-busting, but certainly beneficial) rains. Everything that
was greening up is really greening up, and things that weren`t green
before (bare farm fields) will be soon. No concerns on the fire
weather side of the house. Temperatures are forecast to trend up
into the 60s (and eventually the 70s) through Saturday before the
boundary layer finds another gear and temperatures potential run up
into the 80s to low 90s next week. If the low level moisture that
advects up into the CWA for Friday is sufficient to make stratus,
then 60s for high temperatures in rain and clouds may be a little
overly-ambitious.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast to continue over the next 24 hours.
A couple showers of rain may pass over KPIR terminal airspace
this afternoon, briefly reducing visibility to less than VFR.
The chances of this happening at KPIR, even though there are
currently a couple showers ~50-60 miles away, are pretty slim,
so just carrying a late afternoon Prob30 group for this
potential.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...10