978
FXUS63 KABR 090224 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
924 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) for isolated severe
  storms this afternoon through tonight along and east of a
  line from Sisseton to Huron. Main threats include hail,
  quarter inch in diameter, and 60 mph winds.

- There is an Enhanced Risk (Level 3/5) for severe storms for
  central and northeastern SD into west central MN Tuesday
  afternoon through Wednesday morning. Main threats include
  tornadoes, large to very large hail (2+ inches in diameter)
  and wind gusts of 70+ mph.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 912 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Finally got a cell to develop within the instability axis where
the remains of this surface trof/wind-shift is located along the
far eastern edge of the CWA. Can`t rule out a few more cells
developing later, closer to 06-07Z, across the far northeast
corner of SoDak into west central Minnesota when some weak
low/mid-level WAA and weak low level forcing will set-up.
Otherwise, expecting the going forecast of dry the rest of
tonight and the first half of Tuesday and tremendous low level
warming over the next 12 to 18 hours will persist.

UPDATE Issued at 637 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 125 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

A few showers and thunderstorms continue to develop and quickly
weaken in west central MN this afternoon. They are all forming on
the warm side of a weak frontal boundary/sfc trough that is draped
from Milbank to Mitchell. There is a marginal risk for severe storms
in this area with increasing shear after 21z. 1 inch hail will be
the main threat from any stronger storms.

All attention is really focused on the impending severe weather
Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning as a stronger cold front
moves through from west to east. The sfc front will be aided by
ample shortwave activity ejecting out of the broad upper trough over
the Rockies with an increasing jet in the evening. There is an
enhanced risk (3 of 5) over most of the region on Tuesday with all
hazards possible, including an isolated tornado or two, especially
near the SD/ND border. However, the set up seems most favorable for
a line or MCS with very strong winds over 70 mph.

Temperatures cool markedly behind Tuesday`s system with highs
Wednesday through early next week in the 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 637 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

There continue to be a few pockets of bkn/ovc VFR cigs over the
region. Expecting these clouds, for the most part, to dissipate
by late this evening. VFR conditions are forecast to prevail
during the TAF valid period. Although, there is a slight
possibility of some radiation (ground) fog over parts of
northeast South Dakota/west central Minnesota for a few hours
early Tuesday morning. Strong daytime heating out ahead of a
strong cold front could result in thunderstorms, some possibly
severe, developing across western and central South Dakota
Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday evening.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...10