675
FXUS63 KABR 262315 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
515 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild and above average temperatures (40s and 50s) on Friday,
  falling to below average this weekend.

- Increasing west-northwest winds (25-35 mph gusts) today and
  Friday, along with lowering humidity (25-35 percent), will bring
  high/very high fire danger to central/south central SD.

- Snow chances (50-70 percent) return Friday night through
  Saturday over central and portions of northeastern SD. A
  general 1 to 2 inches expected, but some higher end scenarios
  are closer to 4 or 5 inches.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 511 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 116 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Temperatures are warming nicely through the 40s and 50s early this
afternoon as westerly mixing winds increase. As was forecast the
past couple days, we`re currently seeing wind gusts over
central/south central SD in the 25 to 35 mph range, while RH values
drop down to between 25 and 30 percent for some locations. Elevated
fire danger will be in place this afternoon over central/south
central SD.

CWA stays in the warm sector overnight with light west to southwest
winds remaining in place. 925mb temps stay in the +5C to +10C range.
Lows look to stay in the 20s for most locations. Then, a cold front
drops south through the area on Friday, although the timing of it
(afternoon hours) should still allow for nice warming into the 40s
and 50s once again before cold air advection begins to strengthen
later in the day. Similar wind/RH values across central/south
central SD on Friday brings another day of very high fire danger.
Still appears RH is a bit too high for any headlines in regards to
fire weather, but will continue to monitor RH trends. It appears we
will be next to headlines along our southern CWA border.

Main interest in the forecast period is the snow moving into the
region Friday night through Saturday. Latest forecast still has a
general 1 to 2 inches across the region, but continue to see signals
for potentially higher amounts (localized?) closer to 3 to 5 inches
if any organized banding over the same area can get established. WPC
Superplumes show some higher end outliers more into this range.
Still too early to nail down something as specific as a narrow snow
band this far out, but imagine once this system gets fully into the
hi-res model window, we may see an uptick in QPF. Along with the
snow comes colder air as 925mb temps drop back into the teens below
zero C for much of the CWA. Back into the teens, 20s, and low 30s
for highs this weekend.

Temperatures look to warm up again next week, with inherited NBM
highs poking back up into the 40s and 50s for much of the CWA Mon-
Thurs.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 511 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. Breezy west-
northwest winds will become light tonight, then increase again on
Friday. Low-level wind shear (LLWS) will be an issue at all four
terminals tonight into early Friday morning.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...TMT
AVIATION...10