925
FXUS63 KABR 160551
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1251 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures today about 15 to 30 degrees above normal. Winds
  shifting from south to southwest at 25 to 35 mph and afternoon
  humidity down to 15 to 30%. Red Flag warning in effect for
  most of the area late morning through late afternoon.
  High/Very High Grassland Fire Danger as well.

- A cold front will move through late today, with a wind shift
  to north or northwest and increase to 35 to 40 mph.
  Temperatures dropping some 40 to 50 degrees off daytime highs.

- Little moisture associated with this system. About a 50/50
  chance for 0.25" in north central South Dakota, with maybe
  just a few hundredths in northeast South Dakota.

- Cool dry pattern for the weekend. Milder but still dry for the
  first half of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Surface dewpoints are currently in the 30s with a few upper 20s
smattered across the central South Dakota. In the east, its closer
to widespread mid/upper 30s. These values won`t improve with daytime
heating and the extremely favorable mixing environment today.

NBM temperatures are still around the 10th percentile, and 3 to 7F
below the 50th percentile. Bumped up temperatures a few degrees
higher than the NBM because of the southwest component however the
forecast highs are still down around the 25th percentile in
comparison.

NAM BUFKIT profiles continue to indicate mid level instability with
inverted V soundings, above the 0C level. Again, this COULD mean we
might see some elevated dry convection related erratic winds. This
can sometimes show up in CAM wind fields which, not to be taken
literally at the times and locations, but is merely added proof
that convective winds are possible.  FV3/ARW NAMNest/DNG all show
some random blips of erraticness in the wind fields from 23 to
02Z. CAMS do have some low dBZ that may represent this as well.

At the end of March, we also had an area significantly impacted by
blowing dust. Granted, overall winds today will fall short of that
event, however we do have a localized area that tends to get higher
winds (similar to a Sisseton hills downslope) off a bend in the
Missouri Coteau near Ree Heights. While we did see around an
inch of moisture in early April, its been a weak with mild
temperatures since. Dust model is giving some indication that
there could be issues. Added mention of dust in the favored
portion of central South Dakota.

Winds on the backside of the cold front still topping out in NAM/GFS
BUFKIT mixed tool around low/mid 30kt range. Overall chances for
moisture continue to shift north and west. NBM probability of 0.25
inches is a little less than 50/50 over north central South Dakota,
and 25% for areas west of Aberdeen/Pierre. Not even a 50/50 chance
of measuring at Watertown. Needless to say this system doesn`t look
to bring appreciable moisture to the region, outside some local
relief.

Cool snap last through the weekend, with another surge of mild air
for the start of next week. With the departing trough and
approaching upper low parking off the California coast, that
creates a broad ridge over the Rockies and a northwest flow
regime for us. Thats typically a low confidence regime for our
region especially in the realm of days 5-6-7 especially since
this time of year clipper systems usually result in less
moisture and dramatic changes in temperatures. Case in point the
NBM 25th 75th percentile range in high temperatures is 6-10
degrees Monday, 8-13 degrees Tuesday and 10 to 14F for
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will dominate for much of the period. Winds will
be the main concern, increasing with gusts of 20-30kts during much
of the daytime hours today.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ this morning to 8
    PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for SDZ005>008-010-011-
     016>023-033>037-045-048-051.
MN...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this
     evening for MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...06