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Forecast Discussion for Aberdeen, SD
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206 FXUS63 KABR 241511 AAB AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 911 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Above normal temperatures will continue through Saturday. High temperatures will peak Thursday, with highs in the mid 30s and 40s (and 50s to low 60s over south central South Dakota). - Fog and drizzle/freezing drizzle possible across the Coteau east into west central MN late tonight through Thursday evening. A glaze of ice may accumulate from the Sisseton Hills east into west central MN. && .UPDATE... Issued at 909 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025 No changes planned to the today period forecast. Basically, a couple areas of fog or fog potential (Leola Hills region and Sisseton Hills region) will persist for a better part of the day. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 227 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025 Today`s forecast remains dry with above normal temperatures in the lower 30s to near 50 degrees from north to south. Patchy fog may develop this morning especially in areas that had snow melt yesterday. Late tonight into Christmas Day is when the forecast turns messier. There`s been a fairly consistent signal for increasing low to mid level moisture particularly across the east as south to southeast flow increases ahead of weak low pressure moving into the Plains. Saturation to 1 km will lend itself to fog but also to some drizzle/freezing drizzle. With fog/stratus around temperatures will be a sticking point, potentially hovering right around freezing in the east most of Thursday. Went with ConsShort for QPF as it did indicate a couple of hundredths around the Coteau and eastward, in line with most of the hi-res but smoothed out by NBM. This results in a light glaze of ice from the Sisseton Hills into west central MN, the area most likely to stay below freezing. To the south, there should be a changeover to plain old drizzle from freezing drizzle by afternoon. This all looks to clear out by late evening Thursday when winds shift to the northwest behind the sfc low. Another sfc low with trailing upper low digging into the Plains occurs over the weekend. The bulk of any precip appears to remain out of this forecast area for now. Cold air advection is a certainty by Sunday, though, dropping highs below normal and into the single digits to teens. There`s a fairly quick rebound by Tuesday when the next low pressure system moves through. The low on Tuesday has the highest chances for precip over the next week according to the NBM, but still less than 20 percent. And, there are huge model differences in that time frame regarding those chances. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 519 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG Leaned toward lower vsby in GFSLAMP for fog forecast this taf period. Also added a prob30 for some freezing drizzle late tonight at KATY. Looks like IFR cigs/vsby will start dominating between 0z and 6z this evening. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...10 DISCUSSION...20 AVIATION...20 |
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NWS Aberdeen, SD (ABR) Office Forecast Discussions.
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