105
FXUS63 KABR 271708 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1108 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures return to below normal values through Friday, with
highs 5 to 20 degrees below average.

- There is a 30-50% chance of light snow over central South Dakota
early Thursday morning into Thursday night, with a 25% chance of 1"
of snow or more west of a line from Miller to Mobridge.

- There is a 40% chance of mainly light snow Saturday through
Saturday night.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1107 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Updated for the 18z Aviation discussion.

UPDATE Issued at 951 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

The sky cover has been adjusted over central South Dakota.
Otherwise, the ongoing forecast remains on track with few
adjustments expected. We`ll be monitoring the radar returns over
eastern SD/ND and watching surface observations and webcams to see
if any light snow or flurries are hitting the ground. A mainly
dry forecast continues through Wednesday evening for our forecast
area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 253 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Northwest winds remain breezy early this morning across the east as
the upper trough and jet streak continue to affect the region. As
the trough shifts east this morning and sfc high pressure builds
in from the northwest, expect winds to diminish. The high will
remain in place tonight through Wed afternoon. Dry conditions are
expected with below normal temperatures. Highs today and Wednesday
are expected to range from the single digits in the east to the
20s in central SD. However, there is more than a 5 degree spread
in the 25th to 75th on the NBM, so confidence is not high in any
particular location.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 253 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Wednesday night starts the long term with northwesterly upper level
flow still in place over the region. This is expected to be the
dominant flow pattern for the duration of the period. For the past
few days we have been watching a trough coming down out of Canada
for Friday that will bring a chance of snow to the region starting
Thursday. The area of highest snowfall has now moved farther west
and the chance of more than an inch of accumulation now less than
10%. The next chance for snow will be Saturday into Sunday morning.
This had been a shortwave previously, but models now show more of a
fully formed low pressure system, although not a terribly strong
one. The chance of more than an inch of snow accumulation is still
about 20% or less, but the area of higher chance has moved a bit
east and now covers more of northeast SD. The rest of the forecast
looks relatively dry.

Temperatures for the rest of the work week are expected to be below
average before we get some warmer air and bring temps back up to
normal. Friday morning still looks to be fairly chilly with
widespread wind chills of -20 to -25 degrees east of the MO River.
While winds during the period are expected to be relatively light,
Saturday could get a little more gusty as the cold front moves
through from the low, bringing gusts of about 25 mph to areas east
of the James River valley, especially around the Prairie Coteau.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1107 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the rest of today
and through the night. There will be some stronger northwest winds
gusting at KATY this afternoon for a few hours before calming down
during the evening.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...12
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...12