430
FXUS63 KABR 261917
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
217 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances for rain return beginning overnight Thursday and continue
through Friday, with the best chances coming Friday evening. A
Marginal Risk for severe weather is in place, a level of 5 threat.
Hail and wind will be the main severe hazards, and a tornado cannot
be ruled out either.

- Near normal temperatures are expected through the weekend, with
highs in the 80s expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Benign conditions in place this afternoon, with little to note for
the rest of the day today besides fair weather cumulus through the
afternoon and northwesterly winds gusting up to 20 to 25 miles per
hour. Clear skies overnight tonight lead to strong radiative cooling
and near-full humidity recovery by early Thursday morning,
particularly over the James River Valley. With winds also expected
to drop below 5 miles per hour overnight tonight, some pockets for
fog can`t quite be ruled out at this point. However, confidence is
low, and any fog that does manage to develop will likely not be
widespread.

The next chances for rain arrive overnight Thursday into Friday,
with the best chances (50-70%) coming Friday evening. Severe weather
may be possible during that time frame, and a Marginal Risk is in
place for the majority of the forecast area. A low pressure center
will move into the region and bring a warm front up through the
forecast area. Perpendicular to this front, a southerly low-level
jet of 40 to 50 knots is also expected to develop, helping to
provide forcing for the storms. Anticipating the main severe threat
to be hail, with a CAPE/Shear combo of 2000 J/kg and 40-50 knots
expected. Also expecting DCAPE values to reach over 1000 J/kg, which
along with pockets of low-level lapse rates upwards of 8 C/km will
support severe wind as a potential hazard. An early look at tornado
chances show some disagreement in the potential Friday evening, but
with many high-resolution models yet to encompass the event in their
time range, this can be taken with a grain of salt for now. The most
likely scenario for which a tornado could develop would be a spinup
along the warm front.

Looking into next week, there is some signal for the upper-level
ridge to shift eastward at the beginning of the week, allowing for
an upper-level low to move into the region. This setup could
potentially bring another round of rain to parts of the area,
although there is still plenty of uncertainty surrounding this
potential. Latest ensemble guidance peaks around a roughly 25
percent chance of rain Monday morning. An early look at model
soundings also show a somewhat limited concern for severe weather
potential at this point. As always with the extended forecast, there
is plenty of time for things to change on way or the other and for
confidence to increase as we move closer to next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

This afternoon, the main aviation concern will be a low cloud deck
of fair weather cumulus. Observations indicate that ceilings are
mainly scattered at roughly 2500 feet as of roughly 17Z. The
scattered nature keeps conditions at VFR levels, but don`t be
surprised if ceilings intermittently become dense enough to warrant
a Broken status, thereby pushing conditions to MVFR levels. To cover
this possibility, a TEMPO group for the next four hours has been
added to the ABR and ATY TAFs this afternoon. This is perhaps
overkill, particularly with clouds expected to continue to lift, but
wanted to highlight the potential for the category reduction
regardless.

The other possible aviation concern may be some fog early Thursday
morning before sunrise, particularly in the James River Valley. Much
of that area is expected to have full humidity recovery, so the
question will become if winds will be light enough. Generally
expecting speeds below 5 knots, so can`t rule out the possibility of
fog development at this point. Confidence remains low however, so
have left any mention out of the TAFs at this time.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...BC