268
FXUS63 KABR 191734 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1134 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Weak system today brings two rounds of small chances (20-50%)
  for mixed precipitation. Light freezing rain possible north of
  Hwy 12 this morning then again along and north of Hwy 212 this
  evening, although minimal impacts expected.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1130 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

Aviation discussion updated below for the 18Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 1023 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

Continuing to watch the weak system sliding eastward across the
Dakotas. Most precipitation has been occurring across ND, as
expected, but watching light echoes moving eastward across
northern SD as well. Did increase PoPs slightly over the northern
CWA, while also extending them southward a bit further. Still only
have chances from 20-50% (highest along ND/SD border) during the
daytime hours. Light freezing rain possible as well, although
expecting any impacts to be rather minimal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 124 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

Quite a bit of uncertainty regarding the precip forecast today and
tonight. Latest model runs and soundings support two rounds of light
mixed precip dominated by freezing rain from Hwy 12 north. First
round is already stretching into northwest SD as a lee side front
sets up along the Rockies off a low sitting in southern
Saskatchewan. The low slides east through this evening. Temperatures
across northern SD and into eastern SD will remain below freezing
today, but southerly winds gusting 20 to 35 mph will usher in above
0C temps just off the surface. Confidence is pretty high in northern
counties seeing some freezing rain. However, ice accumulations range
from nothing to a couple hundredths. At the moment, highest chances
for a glaze of ice occur with the second round of precip this
evening across far northeast SD into west central MN. Forgoing any
advisory at this time because of the lack of confidence in any
impact.

The associated front exits the region late tonight leaving the
forecast area dry but breezy for Saturday with west to northwest
winds gusting 25 to 35 mph. The winds and lack of snow cover south
of Hwy 14 will result in high grassland fire danger both today and
Saturday. High pressure builds in Saturday night with return flow
setting up on Sunday.

Even with sfc highs and low cycling through SD through next week,
ensembles keep us dry. Next hint for any precip after tonight
doesn`t come around until Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1130 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are currently forecast through the TAF period.
During the evening hours, there may be a few patches of mixed
precipitation moving across the region, including the potential
for -FZRA. Included this in a PROB30 group for the time being.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...TMT