253
FXUS63 KABR 311814
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
114 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Expect a dry forecast through the weekend with the potential of
precipitation returning early next week.

- Temperatures into the upper 90s to low 100s return over parts of
central and north central South Dakota this weekend. Temperatures
are set to cool down to below normal Tuesday behind a cold front.

- Above normal temperatures and strong southerly wind gusts will
combine to create elevated fire weather concerns over central and
north central South Dakota this weekend, particularly on Sunday when
gusts reach as high as 30-40 miles per hour.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 113 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

As of 1pm the bulk of the rain has moved out of the CWA with clouds
diminishing west to east across the CWA besides fair weather
cumulus. Temps range in the upper 60s to the lower 80s with
dewpoints in the upper 50s to the upper 60s. The shortwave and its
associated surface low will continue to exit the region as it tracks
southeast this evening and tonight. Behind the shortwave, winds
aloft remain out of the north and northwest. An amplified ridge
continues over the western CONUS with its large mid level high
underneath. Through the weekend models have a good handle on the
ridge becoming positive tilted, with its axis extending from central
Canada and southwestward through the Northern Plains through the
Rockies. This is due to a large shortwave/low that will track
eastward then northeastward across Canada and phasing with another
shortwave. By early next week, the axis of the ongoing positive
tilted ridge shifts eastward with the Northern Plains on the
southern extent of this trough as winds turn zonal to a slight
southwesterly component. Models agree well on track and timing,
however, a bit of a difference in intensity and surface low. Well
into the extended, behind the shortwave, a broad low amplitude ridge
will develop over the western two thirds of the CONUS. Again, due to
this being further out in time, models differ on how fast the
shortwave moves out and exact amplitude of the broad ridge, so low
confidence on this as of now.

With this setup, dry conditions are expected through the weekend
which will help locations that received several inches of rain
yesterday dry out. Precip chances return Monday/Tuesday as this
shortwave`s surface low tracks across central Canada with its
associated cold front tracking southeast across the Northern Plains.
NBM`s highest pops (as of now) is 40 to 85% Monday evening/night
through Tuesday morning ahead and along the cold front with the
highest pops James valley and eastward through MN. PWAT ahead of the
front in the WAA area as it tracks southeast will range from ~1 to
1.50" but still a bit early on possible amounts. NBM prob of 0.25"
as of now is 35-45% east of the Coteau. Also still a bit early
regarding chances of severe weather, however, ML guidance does
indicate a 5% chance mainly east of the Missouri River Monday. SPC
has a 15% chance of severe weather over eastern ND/northwestern MN
for now. Details will be nailed down closer to time.

With the ridge aloft tilting over the CWA this weekend, warmer air
will move back in from the west aloft in combination with WAA 850mb
to surface winds. This warmer air will be strongest mainly along and
west of the Missouri River Saturday, with highs jumping back up in
the upper 80s to the upper 90s here. This warmer air spreads
eastward to the James Valley Sunday with highs ranging in the 90s to
the lower 100s west of Brown/Spink Counties and hottest over north
central SD. With dewpoints increasing per this stronger return flow
Sunday at the surface, they will increase back into the 60s to
potentially lower 70s Sunday. Heat index values could be near or
around 100 over portions of central SD with HeatRisk in the Moderate
to High category along and west river. So a heat headline may be
needed closer to time. One more day of warm temps Monday (80s to
lower 90s) before cooler air moves in behind the cold front Tuesday
with models hinting at highs only in the 70s! It does look like heat
returns and will gradually filter eastward by the end of next week
with highs back in the 80s/90s.

Lastly, waves of smoke aloft continue for the next several days
creating a hazy sky, however, less concentration of smoke are
expected at the surface through Saturday per HRRR. We will have to
watch the potential for elevated fire danger Sunday across north
central and central SD as the above normal heat will combine with
strong southerly wind gusts (30-40 mph) and RH values dropping to
30% or lower along and west of the Mo River. Grassland Fire Danger
Index in the High to Very High category for this area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR cigs expected through the end of the TAF period.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MMM
AVIATION...MMM