706
FXUS63 KABR 251829
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
129 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 20-40 percent chance that some areas will receive
  at least a quarter of an inch of precipitation between 7 PM
  CDT Friday and 7 PM CDT Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 127 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

As of 1 PM CDT, skies are mostly sunny. Temperatures are warming
through the 70s and 80s. Northwest winds 10 to 25 mph with gusts up
to 35 mph are happening.

The pattern over the next 7 days highlights an upper level ridge
influencing weather conditions over this CWA (warm and dry most of
the time), per ensemble clusters analysis. An occasional shortwave
progged to work through or over the ridge will affect the
strength/amplitude of the upper ridge and potentially introduce
precipitation chances. Currently, the best ensemble-models-based
chances in the forecast for precipitation align with Friday night
into Saturday (a 20-40% chance of at least 0.25in of precipitation).

Models prog an increase in low level moisture tonight which could
mean some areas (terrain-influenced) see fog by morning, if winds
decouple enough with surface high pressure nosing into the region,
and if low clouds don`t form.

Not presently seeing any strong wind/low RH combo`s in the 7-day to
be concerned with. Just continued D3-level drought conditions across
portions of the western forecast zones.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Currently, guidance says VFR conditions will prevail through
mid-day Wednesday. That being said, watching low clouds
(MVFR/VFR), that represent a pocket of higher moisture content
boundary layer air, work their way south toward this region as
they mix out with daytime heating. The set-up for late tonight
into Wednesday morning suggests there is the potential for some
fog or low stratus over parts of northeast South Dakota/west
central Minnesota. Waiting to see if short-term guidance will
pick up on this potential within the next couple of TAF-issuance
cycles.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...10