206
FXUS63 KABR 241511 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
911 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures will continue through Saturday. High
temperatures will peak Thursday, with highs in the mid 30s and 40s
(and 50s to low 60s over south central South Dakota).

- Fog and drizzle/freezing drizzle possible across the Coteau east
into west central MN late tonight through Thursday evening. A glaze
of ice may accumulate from the Sisseton Hills east into west central
MN.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 909 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

No changes planned to the today period forecast. Basically, a
couple areas of fog or fog potential (Leola Hills region and
Sisseton Hills region) will persist for a better part of the day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 227 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

Today`s forecast remains dry with above normal temperatures in the
lower 30s to near 50 degrees from north to south. Patchy fog may
develop this morning especially in areas that had snow melt
yesterday.

Late tonight into Christmas Day is when the forecast
turns messier. There`s been a fairly consistent signal for
increasing low to mid level moisture particularly across the east as
south to southeast flow increases ahead of weak low pressure moving
into the Plains. Saturation to 1 km will lend itself to fog but also
to some drizzle/freezing drizzle. With fog/stratus around
temperatures will be a sticking point, potentially hovering right
around freezing in the east most of Thursday. Went with ConsShort
for QPF as it did indicate a couple of hundredths around the Coteau
and eastward, in line with most of the hi-res but smoothed out by
NBM. This results in a light glaze of ice from the Sisseton Hills
into west central MN, the area most likely to stay below freezing.
To the south, there should be a changeover to plain old drizzle from
freezing drizzle by afternoon. This all looks to clear out by late
evening Thursday when winds shift to the northwest behind the sfc
low.

Another sfc low with trailing upper low digging into the Plains
occurs over the weekend. The bulk of any precip appears to remain
out of this forecast area for now. Cold air advection is a certainty
by Sunday, though, dropping highs below normal and into the single
digits to teens. There`s a fairly quick rebound by Tuesday when the
next low pressure system moves through. The low on Tuesday has the
highest chances for precip over the next week according to the NBM,
but still less than 20 percent. And, there are huge model
differences in that time frame regarding those chances.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 519 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Leaned toward lower vsby in GFSLAMP for fog forecast this taf
period. Also added a prob30 for some freezing drizzle late tonight
at KATY. Looks like IFR cigs/vsby will start dominating between 0z
and 6z this evening.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...20