777
FXUS63 KABR 280019 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
719 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Highs in the 60s and 70s Saturday through Monday will be 15 to as
much as 30 degrees above normal for this time of year.

- Winds will shift to southerly Saturday, with gusts of 35 to 45
mph. Higher winds will be over northeastern SD, with the favored
downslope areas of the Sisseton hills potentially exceed 60 mph.

- Our continued dry conditions, relative humidity of 15 to 30
percent, and the strong winds will combine to create very high to
extreme Grassland Fire Danger Index values Saturday for all but
portions of north central SD.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 657 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

See the updated aviation discussion below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

At 19Z the strong surface high was located between Pierre-
Chamberlain-Winner. Winds under the high have diminished, with gusts
less than 20mph over central SD. Over northeastern SD and west
central MN, gusts of 25-30mph will continue for a couple more hours
but are also weakening. After a couple of cool days, we`ll be
flipping the switch and moving to warm/dry conditons as the surface
high along the SD/MN border around 00Z exits across IA late this
evening and overnight. A tight pressure gradient will develop
between the exiting high and surface low currently over southwestern
Canada. Winds just above the surface (peaking around 850-900mb) will
be 45-60kts from 06-15Z Saturday across central SD, and from 09-18Z
Saturday over eastern SD and west central MN.

Dry air has already taken hold, with dewpoints in the 10 to 15F
range this afternoon. Despite temperatures falling into the mid 20s
to low 30s, relative humidity recoveries will be very poor and only
25 to 35% over much of central SD. Winds will increase out of the
south overnight, gusting 35 to 45 mph after 10Z Saturday. The result
is a non-traditional time for increased fire weather concerns. The
Red Flag Warning for portions of south central SD begins at 15Z.
We`ll continue to monitor the latest trends and especially relative
humidity, to see if values will fall below 20% prior to 15Z. The
strong winds will continue more east through the morning hours
Saturday and switch to out of a southwesterly direction. Gusts of 35
to 55 mph are expected during the daytime hours Saturday, lightest
over north central SD and west central MN.The strongest winds will
be across and just east of the Sisseton Hills (the traditional
downslope areas). Winds will slowly start to weaken by mid
afternoon, when the lowest relative humidity is expected (dropping
to 15 to 25%). Red Flag Warnings (for continued dry fuels, warm and
dry air - with highs in the 60s to low 70s, and strong winds) is in
effect for much of south central to northeastern SD and west central
MN mid-morning Saturday into Saturday evening.

Temperatures will again top out in the 60s and 70s Sunday and
Monday. A few 80s are expected over south central SD Monday. Despite
the warmer weather, winds will be lighter than Saturday, limiting
fire weather concerns a bit. The Canadian low set up across NE and
western KS Sunday into early Monday, before eventually pushing east-
northeast Monday night. Highs Tuesday will be back in the upper 30s
to mid 40s. Any chance of precipitation looks to stay mainly to our
south through the day Wednesday. 30-40% chance of precipitation
returns Thursday and Friday. Thursday may also be accompanied by
another round of strong winds, with gusts again in the 30-40mph
range. We`ll see how the forecast trends over the next several
days.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 657 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will prevail. Surface high pressure will gradually
slide east with southerly winds and warm air advection returning
on the backside. Winds will increase through the overnight with
strongest winds expected by the morning hours. This set up also
introduces the possibility of low level wind shear at all TAF
sites.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM CDT Saturday for SDZ007-008-
     011-019>023.

     Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 5 PM CDT Saturday for SDZ007-008-011-
     019>023.

     Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for SDZ017-018-
     036-037-048-051.

MN...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM CDT Saturday for MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Serr
DISCUSSION...06
AVIATION...Serr