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Forecast Discussion for Aberdeen, SD
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000 FXUS63 KABR 250850 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 350 AM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday Afternoon) Issued at 346 AM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021 An expansive area of mid level cloudiness should remain over the region through the mid morning hours, and perhaps longer. Went pessimistic with sky cover for today, keeping an overcast, to at least a partly cloudy sky all day. An approaching low pressure system from the west will bring increasing southeasterly winds to much of the CWA today. Sustained winds of 20 to 25 mph will be possible for areas west of the James River Valley. Buffer soundings suggest peak gusts of 35 to 40 knots for the Mo valley this afternoon through this evening. A wind advisory may be need for Corson and Dewey county where NBM 90 percent shows guts of +35 knots. The winds will become southerly tonight, with 40 knot winds at half km off the RAP model. The gusty winds will keep overnight lows fairly mild with temperatures mainly in the 40s. A surface trough moving into the the western Dakotas on Tuesday will push the strong winds eastward, impacting the James River valley and points east. Buffer soundings suggest slightly better mixing winds, especially for the higher terrain areas of the Prairie Coteau. Both the NAM and GFS show 50 to 55 knot at 850 mb Tuesday afternoon, and while mixing winds will not be that high, peak gusts of 40 to 45 knots will be possible. Showers will move into north central areas during the afternoon hours on Tuesday. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday Evening through Sunday) Issued at 346 AM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021 When the period opens, there is a rather large, elongated upper level longwave trof entering the nation`s mid-section, including some notable PVA/forcing over this CWA Tuesday night through Wednesday. P-type, at this time, is all rain with this event. Plenty of warm-enough low to mid-level air in the column Tuesday night and Wednesday. Thursday and Friday still look like dry and mild days. But, consensus seems to be settling down now on a strong cold frontal passage by the end of the day on Saturday, signaling the start of a several day period of below normal cold weather conditions heading into the beginning of November. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night) Issued at 1223 AM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions are expected at ABR and ATY through tonight and Monday. IFR/MVFR conditions at PIR and MBG will become VFR on Monday morning and remain through the rest of the day. Also, with a tightening surface pressure gradient and deeper mixing, all airports will have an increase in southeast winds on Monday to 15 to 25 knots. MBG and PIR will be the strongest in the afternoon with gusts up to 30 knots at times. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SD LONG TERM...Dorn AVIATION...SD
Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS Aberdeen, SD (ABR) Office Forecast Discussions.
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