078
FXUS63 KABR 291125 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
525 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High temperatures through Friday will be 5 to 20 degrees below
average. Coldest temperatures will be found east of the James Valley.

- There is a 30-60% chance of light snow over central/north central
South Dakota this morning, and again tonight into Friday. Both of
these light snow events combined are expected to produce up to 1.5
inches of snow, mainly throughout and west of the Missouri River
valley.

- There is a 35-70% chance of mainly light snow Saturday through
Sunday morning. A wintry mix is possible west of the James Valley
especially west river.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 520 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Update for 12Z TAF discussion below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

A northwest to southeast waa band of light snow continues to affect
central SD early this morning. Best returns remain west river,
though Pierre has consistently been down to 1 to 2 miles. Mobridge,
on the other hand, has yet to saturate. Expect this initial band to
continue through morning. Hi-res models indicate a brief break in
the afternoon before snow fills back in this evening and lingers
into Friday morning on the edge of the arctic front with a high
building in from the northeast. Up to an additional inch of snow is
expected with highest amounts along the western edge of the cwa,
basically west of a line from McLaughlin to Murdo. With winds
remaining light, the impact from this system is minimal.

When this round ends by Friday afternoon, all eyes turn to Saturday.
Surface high pressure exits to the southeast and return flow sets
up. Increasing southerly winds and an upper ridge mean warmer
temperatures on Saturday with highs west river in the mid to upper
30s. However, an upper trough and sfc front quickly push in from the
west bringing some additional light precipitation. Confidence in
timing is still low. Winds appear to diminish slightly as snow
starts falling on some models, but ensembles continue to bleed
everything together. Any accumulations look light, around an inch or
less, but timing is everything because temperature, precipitation
type and blowing snow potential revolve around it.

Temperatures return to near or above climo norms on Saturday and
remain above average through next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 520 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions continue for KATY and KABR. VFR cigs have briefly
moved into KPIR and KMBG but are expected to lower to MVFR as
another round of light snow moves into the area. After an
afternoon break and return to VFR cigs, yet another round of light
snow is expected for these same sites. Confidence on timing is
low for KMBG so left out Prob30 mention.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...13
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...13