429
FXUS63 KABR 121841
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
141 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of fog to linger and perhaps expand over northeastern
  South Dakota and western Minnesota later tonight. Some fog
  may be dense, with visibilities down to a quarter of a mile or
  lower at times.

- Cooler temperatures will persist this week. Expect highs in
  the upper 40s to lower 60s. Highly dependent on whether or
  not the clouds clear off at night, but overnight lows could
  drop below the freezing mark under clear sky nights.

- Some light showers, possibly with embedded thunder, and more
  pockets of drizzle are expected across, at least, north
  central South Dakota again by late tonight, persisting into
  Tuesday. Generally a few hundredths of an inch are expected.
  Additional rain chances come late Wednesday into Thursday.

- Strong northwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph
  will be possible Thursday afternoon and evening across
  central and north central South Dakota. These winds will draw
  some of the coldest air of the season, to date, into the
  region Thursday night through Friday. Sub-freezing low
  temperatures Thursday night and Friday night are a concern.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 140 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

At 1 PM CDT, skies are cloudy. Isolated rain showers (with some
embedded thunder) and spotty drizzle continue. Fog is lifting for
most areas. Still seeing some dense fog on/east of the Prairie
Coteau at this time. Winds are anchored on a northerly direction
around 5 to 15 mph. And, temperatures have not budged; sitting in
the mid 40s to mid 50s. Temperatures across the extreme
east/southeast portion of forecast zones are reading in the low to
mid 60s.

Expecting the forcing/lift attached to the current shortwave working
through the region to terminate by late afternoon/early evening.
And, that should bring a brief end to the showers and drizzle
around. However, the set-up in the low levels of the atmosphere is
not going to change all that much heading into Tuesday morning.
There could be another round of fog (locally dense) in the morning.
Also, as additional shortwave energy lifts out of the southwestern
CONUS and works up into the northern plains region, the potential
for showers and perhaps even more drizzle will increase. Once that
shortwave departs Tuesday afternoon, most of the CWA reverts back to
a dry forecast through the end of the period. It`s the area
basically south of a line from Mission Ridge to Milbank that could
encounter more light rainfall heading into Wednesday night/lasting
into Thursday as low pressure lifts out of the intermountain west
and works its way across the plains.

Ensembles clusters analysis shows the pattern de-amplifying and
becoming a dry forecast period from Thursday night through the end of
the period. Deterministic models are portraying something similar.
Cloud cover really holds the keys as far as night time temperatures
go. As long as the low clouds are in place, diurnal ranges probably
don`t swing much more than 5 to 10 degrees over the next couple of
days. During this cool stretch, if clouds do dissipate, expect
frosty conditions to be possible. Some areas could be flirting with
sub-freezing temperatures either Tuesday night or Wednesday night,
if skies clear off. The other timeframe of interest is Thursday
night through Friday night, when models are blasting a strong cold
frontal passage through the region, drawing some of the coldest air
of the season down across South Dakota. Sub-freezing readings are
possible Thursday night and Friday night. The frontal passage on
Thursday into Thursday night could be packing some rather strong
post-frontal northwest winds as well. Portions of central and north
central South Dakota could be looking at advisory strength winds
and/or gusts. The air temperature (925hpa) within the mixing layer
on Friday is only in the 3-6C range, so high temperatures on Friday
may not make it out of the 40s for some.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Low visbies in FG/BR/DZ, rain showers and low CIGs will
continue across the region during the TAF period. MVFR/IFR/LIFR
conditions are all possible during the TAF period, but
particularly at KABR/KATY. CIGs are bouncing between MVFR and
IFR at KPIR/KMBG, and these two terminals hold the highest
potential for seeing partial clearing by early this evening. But
later tonight, clouds are expected to fill back in at these two
terminals. Isolated to scattered -SHRA/-TSRA in the KABR area
early this afternoon should clear off by late this afternoon.
Rain showers and drizzle are expected to take a break by late
afternoon/early evening, and fog should burn off/mix out as
well. However, later tonight into Tuesday, there should be more
rain showers and areas of drizzle/fog to contend with.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for SDZ007-
     008-021-023.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...10