738
FXUS63 KABR 232128
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
328 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very cold air will continue through Monday morning. Highs will
  be in the single digits below to teens above zero, with lows of
  -5 to around -15. The coldest air will be over far northern and
  northeastern South Dakota into west central Minnesota.

- Winds chills Saturday morning morning of -20 to around -30
  degree wind chills are forecast overnight through mid morning
  Saturday.

- Temperatures return to near normal values Monday afternoon,
  with highs in the teens and 20s.

- Mainly dry weather is expected to continue for the next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 247 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

A few adjustments made to headlines this afternoon. There are
just a couple of locations still hovering right around the extreme
cold warning criteria (-40 degrees) across northeast South
Dakota, but for the most part, conditions have improved enough to
allow the warning to expire. However, a pretty widespread area
from north central South Dakota across to northeast South Dakota
is still solidly with in the -30 advisory criteria. There will
likely be a period of time this evening where winds drop off and
temperatures are "warm" enough to where we see wind chill values
improve, before they then drop back into the -25 to
-30 degree range, but didn`t want to complicate headlines
unnecessarily. Therefore, adjusted the advisory timing to take
effect now.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1214 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

The shifting winds is effectively disrupting lingering bands of
clouds or flurries off of the open waters of the Missouri River.
Winds will be light late this afternoon and be out of the southeast
this evening. Cold air remains in place, with the 1048mb surface
Arctic high stretching from southern Saskatchewan through ND and
across eastern SD and southwestern MN. This area of high pressure
will move across southern MN by late evening with southerly winds
returning to our forecast area by 06Z.

The pressure gradient increases slightly Saturday, with winds out of
the south increasing with gusts of 15-20kts primarily east of the MO
River midday Saturday. These winds and the surface temperatures will
be the main concern, as wind chills hover near advisory criteria
once again overnight through Saturday morning. A Cold Weather
Advisory has been added for much of the area east of the MO River
with wind chills dip into -25 to around -30F.

Cold weather headlines look to be more limited in coverage, if
needed at all Sunday morning, with wind chills around -25 or
slightly below for mainly the Leola Hills and Prairie Coteau
counties.

Saturday night/Sunday morning we`ll have a weak surface low shifting
across southern SD or northern NE. At this point, little to no
precipitation is expected. Another area of high pressure will sink
in from the north during the day Sunday and slide across the Central
Plains Sunday night. After highs in the single digits to teens above
zero Saturday, we`ll be back into the single digits either side of
zero Sunday afternoon. Temperatures will be able to at least briefly
moderate back to near normal values Monday afternoon. A few above
freezing readings are expected over south central SD.

Other than flurries, our next chance of precipitation is Wednesday
morning, and only a 20% chance of light snow. There looks to be
plenty of discrepancies in the specifics as we move beyond
Wednesday, with a 500mb trough lingering over our area or just to
our east and waves of high pressure at the surface.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1035 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

While VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. The
exception is at PIR, which is near a band of lake effect/river
effect clouds and potential flurries. The steady very cold air out
of the north over the warmer/open waters has resulted in streamers
of clouds and flurries. The winds will shift after around 20Z,
disrupting the streamers and putting an end to the MVFR
conditions at PIR.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Saturday for
     SDZ003>011-016>023-034-036-037.

MN...Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST Saturday for MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Serr
DISCUSSION...06
AVIATION...06