005
FXUS63 KABR 252011
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
211 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild and above average temperatures (40s and 50s) return for
  Thursday and Friday.

- Increasing west-northwest winds (25-35mph gusts)
  Thursday/Friday, along with lowering humidity (25-35 percent)
  will bring high/very high fire danger to central/south central
  SD.

- Snow chances (50-70 percent) return Friday night through
  Saturday. Generally, less than 4 inches expected as probability
  for 2 inches or greater is only 15-35 percent across northern
  SD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Narrow band of snow continues to make progression east-southeast
across the CWA early this afternoon. Been making adjustments to PoPs
throughout the day to account for this. Also watching another area
of rain showers across western SD, taking aim for the southwest CWA
and may have to make some adjustments there as well. Looking at web
cams where it has snowed, it would appear the most anyone received
was maybe a few tenths to a half inch as the band of snow has been
fairly progressive.

Tonight, a warm front will move eastward across the area, with
milder temperatures in its wake for Thursday and even into Friday.
925mb temps warm to as high as +5C to +10C across the area during
this time. We will also enter into some breezy/windy conditions both
days, with west-northwest winds gusting between 25 and 35 mph for
most areas. Humidity values drop to around 25 to 35 percent across
central SD Thursday and Friday afternoon, so Grassland Fire Danger
values bump up into the "Very High" category those days. For the
time being, it appears criteria for wind and/or fire wx headlines is
not met.

Focus then shifts to the snow potential Friday night into Saturday.
Colder air begins moving back southward over the region on Saturday
and lingers through the weekend as highs drop back down into the
teens, 20s, and 30s. Models still show a band of accumulating snow
running west to east across the CWA. Seems like a case (at least for
now) where most accumulations are less than 4 inches. Probability
for receiving 2 inches or greater is only about 15-35 percent from
KMBG through KATY. Current forecast shows a general 1 to 2 inches
over said region, but will be refining this in the coming days.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1129 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

MVFR CIGs, along with a band of -SN/SN will move moving eastward
across the region today, least likely affecting KPIR. Any
precipitation looks to be east of KMBG at the start of the TAF
period, but KABR/KATY may see some -SN. Lowest confidence at KABR
so left mention out for the time being, but did add a PROB30 for
KATY. Conditions are forecast to trend widespread VFR later this
evening and through the latter half of the TAF period.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TMT
AVIATION...TMT