414
FXUS63 KABR 090607
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
107 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 35 to 60 percent chance of light rain and snow
today, with less than 0.10in of water equivalent precipitation and
less than 0.5in of snow accumulation expected.

- High temperatures recover to near normal on Friday before warming
to above normal Saturday through Monday. Temperatures over much of
the area are expected to be 10 to 20 degrees above normal, warmest
Sunday.

- Fire weather concerns look to relax a bit Friday and Saturday. But
afternoon relative humidity values on Sunday may get close to 20
percent over portions of central and south central South Dakota.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 106 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

As of 1 AM CDT, winds continue to decrease across the area as the
cold front keeps moving east and out of the area. Temperatures at
the moment are in the upper 20s to mid 30s with winds out of the
northwest at 10 to 15 mph. High pressure will move in at the
surface today and do battle with a low pressure system to our
southwest, resulting in some snow/rain showers. Accumulation of
less than a half inch are expected around and north of US Hwy 12
and will melt quickly.

Friday looks to be dry before we move into pretty much constant
precipitation chances Saturday through Tuesday afternoon. WAA
showers start Saturday and stay mainly over eastern SD with the
chance of a tenth of an inch or more at 15% or less, highest over
far east central SD. High pressure battling with incoming low
pressure will lead to wind gusts of 30-40 mph Saturday. Rain chances
of 20-30% spread back east Saturday evening before and last through
Sunday afternoon. This is a significant decrease from previous model
runs. There looks to be a little bit of a break for eastern portions
of the CWA Sunday evening/overnight before another round moves in
Monday morning with 45-60% chances lasting through the overnight
hours as the low and cold front move out of the region. There is a
chance for a few hours of rain/snow mix along the ND/SD border,
mainly in the higher elevation areas of the Leola Hills. Behind the
cold front Tuesday morning, previous model runs showed snow as the
dominant ptype north of I-90, now temperatures have warmed enough
that rain has become the dominant ptype. Precipitation chances move
southeast through the overnight hours. Some showers could continue
over the eastern half of the forecast area as models start to show
another low moving up from the southeast and into MN on Wednesday.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

There is a large swath of low VFR/MVFR stratus in the upper
trough this evening. Some of this is nudging into northern SD,
affecting KABR and right on the edge of KMBG and KATY.
Unfortunately, models are not handling it well, so tried to
approximate timing with expected exit of the trough tonight.

A shortwave induced area of light rain and snow will move through
northern SD Thursday afternoon. MVFR cigs are possible with this
feature, as well.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...20