295
FXUS63 KABR 291128 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
628 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild and dry Today and Monday, but with light winds.

- Next system for Monday night/Tuesday expected to be little more
  than a frontal passage and an isolated light shower or two.
  Widespread moisture unlikely.

- Cooler Tuesday, but with northwest winds 25 to 40 mph.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 624 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

The aviation discussion has been updated for the 12Z TAFS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 151 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Light south to easterly flow this morning with plenty of high
clouds. 850mb temperatures do actually increase slightly today,
though with low pressure to the south, easterly low level winds may
temper mixing. NBM does shift these winds to westerly later but
we`re really getting mixed results from light flow between
deterministic models.

Low level flow becomes more progressively easterly for Monday.
Another surge of mild mid level air moves to our south. The CWA is
on a tight thermal gradient (15C difference from  south to north),
so will stick with NBM.

For the wave Tuesday, still looks pretty limited with regards to
moisture. A handful of GEFS plumes have a few hundreds, while the
NBM probability of exceeding 0.01 is now up to about 50% across
north central South Dakota to around 20% in east central South
Dakota. The probability of exceeding 0.1" is only 20% out by
Mobridge.

On the back side of the system, with cold advection most of the day
Tuesday, winds will be on the increase. Deterministic NBM is right
around 30kts while NAM BUFKIT mixed tool is closer to about 35kts.
At this point, will stick with NBM and adjust up as we get closer to
the date.

Next wave after that is Thursday. Still not a lot of confidence with
this one, as it takes on a split flow type look. GFS is shifting to
the northerly wave being stronger, less so on the other two. NBM is
still thinking better chances for moisture in comparison to
Tuesday`s wave. Still lots of time to see if there is better
alignment with deterministic models or even clusters.

For long range temperatures, with the passage of the waves Tuesday
and Thursday, along with a broad longwave trough over the central
CONUS by next weekend, overall trend is for more seasonal readings.
NBM shows quite a bit of range after Wednesday, but not
surprising given the more active pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 624 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will persist at all TAF sites through the next 24
hours. Winds will remain relatively light and variable through
today into tonight.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Vipond
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...Vipond