661
FXUS63 KABR 170306 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
906 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Bands of light snow with intermittent white out conditions to
  diminish in coverage and intensity overnight as strong winds out
  of the northwest slowly weaken, with gusts of 30 to 35 mph by
  daybreak Saturday. Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect.

- Wind chills of 20 below to near 30 below zero expected Saturday
  morning, lowest over the Leola Hills.

- Winds out of the northwest will gust from 45 to 55 mph late
  Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon. These winds will be
  accompanied by light snow of around an inch or less across
  portions of northeastern South Dakota and west central
  Minnesota.

- Wind chills of 15 below to near 30 below zero are expected
  Monday morning.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 900 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Continue to see light snow moving southeast across the eastern
Dakotas, but radar trends over the past couple hours show a slow
weakening in returns as well as a shrinking in overall areal
coverage. Although, did expand PoPs westward just a bit over the
southwest CWA based on web cams down that way. Winds still fairly
strong and gusting from 35 to 50 mph for many areas, thus leading
to areas of blowing and drifting snow. Winter Weather Advisory
continues until 06Z. Wind chills by early Saturday morning look to
range from 20 below to 30 below zero across much of the area, with
marginal advisory readings in spots, so will continue to monitor
trends there.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

The cold area of high pressure at the surface across Saskatchewan
will sink over the western Dakotas by 18Z Saturday and reside from
eastern KS through eastern NE with a ridge extending up through the
eastern half of SD through southwestern MN. The ridge will exit
through the evening as another Canadian low nears.

Winds remain elevated, with gusts of 35mph over west central MN to
around 40 to 55mph across central SD. These winds will slowly relax
this evening, with winds still gusting above 45 mph through around
04Z Saturday over portions of central SD. Given the still elevated
winds and continued snow, the Winter Weather Advisory has been
extended until 06Z. Winds will slowly diminish with gusts of 30-
35mph by 12Z Saturday as temperatures fall either side of 0.
Combined with the winds, wind chills will be in the -20 to -30
degree range Saturday morning.

Fire weather concerns have diminished slightly, given that all
locations received at least a dusting of snow. The ongoing cold air
will keep this moisture on the fuels until temperatures warm over
central SD Sunday and potentially Tuesday over portions of
northeastern SD. Another round of light snow Sunday will also act to
limit some of the more robust fire weather concerns. We`ll still
need to be monitoring areas west of the MO River through, where the
warmest/driest air will remain and little snow fell.

Unfortunately winds will increase again Sunday. Snow on the ground
from this event will add to the available blowable snow (mainly over
the Prairie Coteau or where any significant bands of snow were able
to set up). The surface low over southern Manitoba at 06Z Sunday
will extend a warm front across western SD. This boundary will
continue to eastern SD by 12Z Sunday as the parent low sinks along
the ND/MN border and the cold front extends west across central ND.
The low will push across Mn and Lake Superior by Sunday afternoon
with the cold front rapidly sinking south. There is a 30-50% of 1"
of snow or more northeast of a line from around Andover to
Watertown. Most of the snow looks to fall 12-18Z Sunday, with the
strongest winds not perfectly aligned with the highest snowfall.
Winds out of the northwest are forecast to gust 45 to 55 mph late
Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon.

Otherwise, there is around a 20% chance of light snow Tuesday night
and again Friday. Temperatures will jump back to near normal values
Sunday afternoon then reside near to slightly below normal for the
rest of the work week. While there are some peak gusts of 30 to
near 40mph briefly Monday, winds for the rest of the forecast
remain much lighter than what we`re experiencing now and going to
experience Sunday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 602 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Will continue to see -SN and areas of BLSN across the region into
the nighttime hours, generally ending during the wee hours of
Saturday morning. MVFR/IFR VSBY can be expected at times. CIGs
will generally be a mix of low end VFR and MVFR through most of
the TAF period, with improvements expected by late Saturday
afternoon/evening. Strong northwest surface wind gusts ranging
from 30 to as much as 45 knots can still be expected at times
across the region through this evening.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST /11 PM MST/ tonight
     for SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for MNZ039-
     046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
DISCUSSION...06
AVIATION...TMT