254
FXUS63 KABR 202337 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
537 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures in the upper teens to 20s (roughly 10 degrees
  below normal) will continue through this weekend, with the
  exception of highs in the lower to mid 30s over south central SD
  Saturday. A warming trend is expected at the start of next
  week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 531 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Aviation discussion updated below for the 00Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1043 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Northwest flow and an upper low over Lake Superior continue to pull
some flurries into the region today. The upper low is pretty slow
moving and may keep some flurries over west central MN into this
evening. Though radar returns this morning indicate more widespread
light snow, think the drier air and lack of forcing is undercutting
most of it west of I-29.

High pressure builds in from the northwest tonight through Saturday
night. This cwa will be at the edges of the high for the next 48
hours allowing northwest winds to become breezy (20 to 35 mph) under
the jet. Coteau winds, with 50 kts at 700 mb on Sunday, may need an
NBM 90th boost in the grids to reflect some 40 kt gusts.

There`s a lack of consistency in the models starting Tuesday
regarding system track and timing and precip chances. The ECMWF is
much weaker on a midweek trough than the latest 12z GFS, keeping the
ensemble guidance to 25 to 35% pops. All guidance does point to some
warmer temperatures under the building ridge Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 531 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

There are some patches of MVFR/IFR CIGs floating around the KATY
region yet this evening. Will maintain VFR conditions for the time
being at that terminal, but there is low potential these lower
CIGs could fill back in as BKN tonight so will continue to
monitor. Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast at the rest of
the TAF sites through the valid forecast period.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...TMT