615
FXUS63 KABR 230706
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
206 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A gradual warming trend is expected over the next three days.
Highs increase from the 50s to low 60s this afternoon to the 60s to
mid-70s by Wednesday.

- Strong southerly winds gusting to 30-40 mph combined with
afternoon humidity of 25-35 percent will create High to Very High
grassland fire danger this afternoon across central SD. Fires that
start may spread quickly.

- Strong northerly winds return Thursday behind a cold front. Gusts
are expected to peak over central South Dakota at 30 to 40 miles per
hour. The strong winds will also cause elevated fire weather
concerns Thursday afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

The broad pattern to start this week comes in the form of an upper-
level ridge over the western CONUS, allowing warm air to occupy the
Northern Plains. A gradual warming trend is expected through
Wednesday as heights gradually rise, going from highs in the 50s and
60s this afternoon to the 60s and 70s on Wednesday.

Pressure gradient will tighten today as the high pressure center
exerting influence over the region moves off to the southeast. This
tightening leads to a roughly 30-35 knot low-level jet moving
overhead, which with a well-mixed boundary layer expected this
afternoon, those winds speeds will be seen as gusts at the surface.
Combined with central and north central South Dakota seeing minimum
afternoon humidity between 25 and 35 percent, there will be elevated
fire weather concerns this afternoon, and the Grassland Fire Danger
Index reaches the High to Very High category across the forecast
area.

There are also some chances for the development of some rain showers
this afternoon and evening along that low-level jet. Moisture
advection from the southerly jet will provide ample humidity aloft,
but a dry layer near the surface may limit the ability of any
showers that do develop to reach the surface. Therefore, only a
couple of hundredths of accumulation at the most is expected with
showers that develop. The latest ensemble guidance giving only a
roughly 20% chance of a hundredth of an inch, mainly over
northeastern South Dakota and western Minnesota.

As the upper-level ridge flattens out late Wednesday into Thursday,
a jet streak aloft will move over the forecast area, developing a
low pressure center and leading to the potential for some
precipitation development. Model soundings indicate a dry layer near
the surface that any rain showers would need to overcome, so it may
be difficult to see any accumulation at the surface. Still, the
latest ensemble runs place a 0-40% gradient (increasing from south
to north) over the Aberdeen CWA for the probability to see a
hundredth of an inch of accumulation.

As the low pressure center progresses eastward and drags a cold
front across the area Wednesday night, winds behind the front will
turn northerly and increase. Current expectations are gusts around
30-40 miles per hour in the afternoon, with the NBM showing pockets
of 10-20% chances to hit Wind Advisory criteria of 45 miles per
hour. However given the NBM`s tendency to under-do post-frontal,
northerly wind speeds, those values could easily be an
underestimate. These winds will likely cause elevated fire weather
concerns Thursday afternoon, although at the moment it appears that
humidity will remain high enough (30 to 45 percent at minimum) to
keep the area out of Red Flag Warning territory.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected through Monday evening. Light winds
become south-southeast today with gusts to 25-30 kts.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...10