837
FXUS63 KABR 221910
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
110 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures will continue through Saturday. High
temperatures will peak Thursday, with highs in the mid 30s and 40s
(and 50s to low 60s over south central South Dakota).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 106 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

We`re starting out early this afternoon with a 1005mb surface low
over south western to south central SD. At 500mb, there is a
broad low-amplitude ridge set up across the central U.S., with
bookend troughs across the Pacific and Atlantic. The 500mb ridge
will build across the Plains States through Thursday in response
to the low digging south across off the west coast.

Expect the surface low to our south to hug the SD/NE border and exit
across IA and southern MN this evening. An additional slightly weaker
low over western ND will also exit east, dragging a weak cold
front across our area overnight in advance of a large surface
ridge sinking in from Canada. The cooler air moving in will knock
a few degrees off the highs Tuesday, into the 20s for northeastern
SD. The surface ridge will also exit across MN Tuesday afternoon-
evening as another trough sets up to our west.

After Tuesday, temperatures will slowly rise through Thursday, when
highs are expected to top out in the mid 30s and 40s (and 50s to low
60s over south central South Dakota). Highs Wednesday and Thursday
will be withing 5-10 degrees of record highs for Pierre and
Watertown. Record highs this time of year are generally in the upper
40s to mid 50s. Normal highs are in the mid 20s to near 30 degrees.

The ENS visibility meteograms continue to hint at the potential for
significant low level moisture - particularly for the I-29 corridor
from Watertown to Sisseton Wednesday night through Friday evening.
There is a 20-40% chance of 0.4 mile or less visibilities during
that time. Light winds near the surface during this time won`t help
scour out some of this low level moisture. We`ll continue to monitor
the trends for this period as it nears. Limiting the potential will
be the lack of significant melting snow that would have added to the
low level moisture in the area.

The chances for precipitation Wednesday through Friday continue to
diminish, with only a 15-20% chance of precipitation now forecast
over far northeastern SD and west central MN Thursday night. We`ll
continue to monitor the latest trends for this high travel period,
but at this point most o the precipitation looks to stay to our
north. While the exact track of small systems at that time are still
uncertain, there is growing confidence in a low pushing across south
central Canada Friday night through Saturday night, dragging a cold
front across the Dakotas during the day Saturday. Confidence is
higher in the temperature cool down for the end of the weekend, with
highs mainly in the teens and 20s Sunday. Even with that though, the
spread in the surface temperatures at Aberdeen range from 10/25th
percentile to 27/75th percentile, which is a significant spread. The
daytime push of cold air advection will likely mean winds higher
than originally forecast for Saturday. The 75th percentile NBM winds
Saturday afternoon are 35-45 mph, with the 90th percentile in the
45-55 mph range. The surface high looks to stay across the Dakotas
and western MN through Monday of next week.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1039 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will continue over the next 24 hours, with winds
around 10kts or less.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...06
AVIATION...06