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Forecast Discussion for Aberdeen, SD
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000 FXUS63 KABR 271125 AAA AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 525 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2023 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday Afternoon) Issued at 326 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2023 Snow showers/flurries will exit to the south and east early this morning. Currently, they are confined to the James Valley and east. Breezy to windy northwest winds and cold air advection are kicking in behind the showers. Advisory criteria and some brief incursions into high wind warning criteria persist along the leading edge of the caa. Temperatures are falling below freezing again. Was considering canning the winter weather advisory across the east, but portions of the I-29 corridor never climbed too high into the 30s on the warm air push. While blowing snow is no longer really a concern, icing on the roads post-precip is certainly still possible. Winds will diminish fairly quickly through the day as the front progresses east. Another sfc low will move into the Plains tonight. The H7 low will skirt along the SD/NE border. Coupled with some shortwave energy, this will be the focus area for some moderate to heavy banded snow. Latest model runs have shifted snow and snow accumulations farther north. Issued a winter weather advisory for Jones and Lyman counties to start. This may need some adjustments if northern trends persist (or if they retreat). As it is, Lyman is on the edge of needing a warning. While there may be some blowing snow, the main concern is accumulations of 3 to 6 inches of snow. Arctic high pressure will build in from the northwest on Saturday, pushing the precip south with the front edge of the arctic front. Highs on Saturday will be 20 to 30 degrees below average, topping out in the negative single digits to low teens. .LONG TERM...(Saturday Evening through Thursday) Issued at 326 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2023 Will start under an Arctic airmass with the center of a 1040mb high over northern Montana and a ridge extending east into the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota. Low level northerly flow undercuts some mild/low level moisture associated with a weak shortwave embedded at the base of a broader northeast to southwest oriented longwave trough (this is one in a series of weak waves that round the base of the trough). Maybe a little light snow for the extreme southwest CWA but otherwise the Arctic airmass will be the main driver of weather conditions across the CWA. 850mb temperatures are already a standard deviation below climo, and thus don`t anticipate much upward movement in temperatures through Monday...when the core of the coldest airmass begins to migrate east. Late Monday, another wave ejects into the Dakotas, and this stronger wave will bring a little milder air eastwards. This is kind of a new trend as the longwave trough reorients and now it appears that the next few airmasses will be much less intensely cold than what was in previous forecasts. Thats not to say there won`t be a glancing shot of arctic air for late Wednesday, but its minor in comparison and the deterministic GFS is much more aggressive compared to the EC/Canadian and the GEFS mean...meaning entrenched arctic air will probably be less of an issue outside of the start of the work week with a trend towards climo for late in the week, along with a mostly dry forecast. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning) Issued at 523 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2023 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG Gusty northwest winds will slowly diminish through the morning. MVFR cigs will improve briefly this afternoon before filling in again this evening. The clouds will move back in as a system brings snow to central SD including KPIR. KPIR is also expected to have reduced vsby in falling snow. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for SDZ007-008-011- 019>023. Wind Advisory until 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ this morning for SDZ003>006-009-010-015>018-033>037-045-048-051. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Saturday for SDZ045-048. MN...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for MNZ039-046. && $$ SHORT TERM...Wise LONG TERM...Connelly AVIATION...Wise |
Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS Aberdeen, SD (ABR) Office Forecast Discussions.
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