975
FXUS63 KABR 151612 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1112 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snowfall will continue through the morning hours, with generally
  less than 6 inches additional accumulation expected.

- Sustained winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts 40 to 50 mph through
  the morning will lead to blowing/drifting snow and white
  out/blizzard conditions over much of the region into the
  afternoon.

- Very cold air follows with temperatures today into Monday some
  15 to 30 degrees below normal. Wind chill values heading into
  Monday morning are expected to be in the teens below to 20s
  below zero.

- There`s a 50-70% chance of a wintry mix of precipitation on
  Tuesday, primarily east of the Missouri River. At this time,
  precipitation accumulation is expected to be light.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1107 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Have modified the winter headlines to start stair-stepping down
this morning and afternoon, culminating in a winter weather
advisory for blowing snow running the length of the I-29 corridor
in this CWA east into Minnesota, as low level CAA and moderately
strong pressure gradient winds are expected to persist there into
the overnight hours. Visibility has started improving markedly
with March sunshine peeking through this morning where snowfall
has ended. Strong sustained northerly winds and gusts won`t be
ending, though, today. Much of central/northeast South Dakota into
west central Minnesota should expect to see sustained winds 20 to
35 mph with gusts 40 to 50 mph persisting into this afternoon,
before a gradual step-down happens, except that previously
mentioned I-29 eastward corridor into tonight. Updates are out.

UPDATE Issued at 634 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Aviation discussion updated below for the 12Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

As of 07z, the stronger band of snow is located over southern SD
with smaller pockets of snow continuing to move over central and
northeastern SD. The stronger band has move faster to the south then
previous models have forecast due to the surface low traveling a bit
further south across KS into MO/IA. Due to this, additional snowfall
amounts into this afternoon have lessen. There is still a 60-90%
chance for an additional 5 plus inches of snow to fall from midnight
to Sunday evening in a line from Spink to Roberts county and to the
south. The highest chances for this additional snowfall to
accumulate is over the Prairie Coteau and east central SD, from
upslope flow along the eastern edge of the Coteau helping to create
some more snow for that area. Snow chances decrease through the
morning and the snow should be mostly out of northeastern SD by the
afternoon.

High surface pressure to the northwest is creating a tight pressure
gradient with the low pressure to the south, causing stronger winds
to strengthen aloft. Moderately strong cold air advection will
continue to move into central and northeastern SD today, and will
help to get the stronger winds aloft to the surface. These winds are
forecast to increase early this morning into the early afternoon
with gusts getting up around 35 to 50 mph. As the winds increase,
the amount of blowing snow will also increase causing reduced
visibilities and continuing blizzard conditions into the afternoon.
Though, with the stronger, more widespread, band of snowfall having
moved to the south, there will be less widespread and long duration
blizzard conditions over northern SD after mid morning. There will
still be blowing snow and reduced visibilities into the afternoon,
but it will not be as bad as this morning. The high surface pressure
is forecast to move into western and central SD during the late
afternoon/evening and spread east into the overnight hours. The
higher pressure moving in will cause winds to decrease in central SD
late this afternoon and in northeastern SD during the evening and
overnight. Once snow chances decrease during the mid morning,
blowing snow and its impacts will decrease slightly and then
continue to decrease as winds decrease.

The high pressure moving in will help to keep precipitation out of
central and northeastern SD Monday. With the cold air moving into
central and northeastern SD, temperatures today and Monday will be
15-30 degrees colder than normal. High temperatures today will be in
the teens to low 20s. The coldest temperatures will be tonight into
Monday morning, which will be around 0 into the negative single
digits and will have wind chills in the negative teens to -20s.

An upper-level ridge over the West Coast is starting to work its way
east through the beginning of the work week. A shortwave riding
along the top of the ridge is forecast to move over SD Tuesday, and
this shortwave will cause precipitation to move through the area.
The models are still struggling with the timing and location of the
precipitation, as some have it moving in Tuesday morning, others in
the afternoon, and a few models keep it to the north out of central
and northeastern SD all together. Additionally, with warm air moving
into the area Tuesday, the precipitation type is forecast to change
from snow to a wintry mix then rain through the day, though timing
of this change is also different in the models. With all the
differences, there is still lower confidence in this precipitation
and an eye will have to be kept on it in upcoming model runs.
Accumulations for this event look to be light at the moment. The
ridge is then forecast to move over SD through the remainder of the
work week and temperatures are forecast to warm above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 634 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Will continue to see -SN/SN and BLSN through the morning hours,
with IFR/LIFR VSBY. -SN will gradually come to an end from
northwest to southeast across the region later this morning into
early afternoon. MVFR CIGs are affecting the area as well, perhaps
sneaking into IFR at times. Improvements to VFR CIGs are forecast
later in the TAF period as the storm departs later today.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Blizzard Warning until 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon for
     SDZ005>008-010-011-017-033-035-036-045-048-051.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for SDZ007-008-011.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon
     for SDZ003-004-009-015-016-034.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM CDT /3 PM MDT/ this afternoon
     for SDZ005-006-010-017-033-035-036-045-048-051.

     Blizzard Warning until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for SDZ018>023-
     037.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT
     this evening for SDZ018-019-037.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM CDT
     Monday for SDZ020>023.

MN...Blizzard Warning until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for MNZ039-046.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...TMT