641
FXUS63 KABR 080103
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
803 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Tonight, there is an Enhanced Risk, level 3/5, for scattered to
numerous severe storms over the western half of Corson County. There
is a Slight Risk, level 2/5, for scattered severe storms along and
west of a line from Eureka to Murdo. Main threats include large
hail, one to two inches in diameter, and wind gusts of 70+ mph. A
tornado or two cannot be ruled out within the Enhanced Risk.

- Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night, there is an Enhanced Risk
(3 of 5) for severe storms north of Hwy 12 from McLaughlin to
Frederick. There is a Slight Risk (2 of 5) everywhere else. All
hazards are possible.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 803 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

The Wind Advisory has been allowed to expire due. Strong storms
moving in from western South Dakota could bring another round
of strong winds to north central SD this evening into the early
overnight hours.

UPDATE Issued at 702 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

UPDATE for the 00Z TAF discussion.

Showers remain over far northeastern SD and west central MN this
evening. A few lightning strikes, and pea sized hail will be the
main concern with the strongest storms. We are also monitoring
strong to severe thunderstorms over far northwestern SD that
will be nearing Mobridge after 05Z, with predominate TS between
06-08Z. Strong winds will be the main concern with these storms
as they near Mobridge. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in
effect for Corson County until 10 PM MT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 105 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

A wind advisory remains in effect for portions of north central SD
this afternoon. With only a 12 mb pressure gradient over the state
and no cold air advection, the advisory is marginal at best with the
usual channeled or elevated spots seeing occasional gusts over 45
mph.

A weak sfc low/cold front will move east across SD late tonight
through Monday morning. The best shortwave energy/jet streak has
slowed its eastward progress through SD on the latest model runs,
robbing the sfc front of some of its potential energy. Although the
outlooks from SPC haven`t changed markedly in the latest updates,
the highest potential for storms appears to hardly move out of
northwest SD into central SD until between 3z and 6z. And, much of
that activity may stay centered over south central ND. Anything that
trails into north central SD overnight, though, could still produce
wind gusts to 70 mph and/or some large hail around an inch.

The sfc low weakens and dissipates Monday morning over eastern SD.
This timing will leave areas east of the Coteau in southerly flow
most of Monday. The higher dewpoints and temperatures on the
southerly flow could lead to some thunderstorm development in the
afternoon. There is a marginal risk for the area, accordingly,
though spatial extent for storms differs depending on the model and
where they weaken that front. Lowered high temps for Monday west of
the front by blending in 50% ConsShort with the NBM. The hi-res are
more progressive with the cooler temps than the NBM.

Tuesday warms back up with a return of southeast flow and more
humidity. Areas south of Hwy 14 could approach "feels-like" temps of
around 100 degrees. The upper trough that teases the region tonight
will move a touch farther east Tuesday. Shortwave energy will eject
into SD on the eastern edge of the trough by 21z and the jet will
increase. Sfc low pressure moves through ND Tuesday evening from
west to east with a trailing cold front. There is an Enhanced Risk
(3 out of 5) for Tuesday across portions of north central SD where
all hazards will be in play.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 702 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Showers have developed southeast of ATY, with any thunderstorms
expected to remain east of the airport. We are also monitoring
strong to severe thunderstorms over far northwestern SD that
will be nearing MBG after 05Z, with predominate TS between
06-08Z. Strong winds will be the main concern with these storms
as they near the airport. As a result, the TAF for MBG may need
to be amended as storms near. Otherwise, MVFR ceilings will move
over ABR as early as 09Z through early afternoon, and at ATY
with borderline IFR ceilings through Monday morning.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...06
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...06