680
FXUS63 KABR 102324 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
524 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There`s a chance (20-40%) for light rain over northern SD and west
central MN this evening, with rainfall amounts mainly less than 0.1
inch.

- Colder temperatures arriving Thursday through Saturday, with highs
only in the 30s and 40s. Above normal temperatures likely returning
by early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 520 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Despite decent returns on radar, high ceilings and 20 degree
dewpoint spreads are keeping any precip to virga or sprinkles
across SD and west central MN so far this evening. No major
changes planned to the current forecast tonight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 213 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Wave of interest for this evening shows up nicely on water vapor
satellite imagery over eastern MT. This wave will continue moving
eastward into the nighttime hours while a surface low also tracks
southeast across the area. Latest models continue to show light rain
potential across the northern third of SD into west central MN
through the late afternoon and evening hours. PoPs have been
increased slightly across the northern CWA, generally from 20 to 40
percent. It still appears any rainfall amounts will be below
0.25in, and likely even less than 0.10in.

Mid/upper flow then becomes northerly Wed-Fri, while a surface ridge
axis sets up shop and looks to stay in place for some time. By
Saturday morning, the ridge axis has only moved into MN, while still
largely having an influence on our weather. Colder air aloft still
set to spill southward across the region, more so the eastern CWA
where 850mb temps drop below zero C. High temps Thursday (and now
Friday) are only in the upper 30s for the eastern CWA. What has been
noticed in the models is that the colder air lingers around longer
over the area before the next warm up begins. We really don`t see
widespread 50s returning to the area now until Monday and Tuesday,
whereas 24 to 48 hours ago it appeared we would start warming up by
Sunday already.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 520 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected through Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...20
DISCUSSION...TMT
AVIATION...20