423
FXUS63 KABR 110545
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1245 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storms could still develop across central and eastern South
  Dakota through the early morning hours, with the potential for
  large hail and high winds. By 5 or 6 am most of the activity
  will have shifted south and east however.

- There is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for isolated to
  scattered storms for the Missouri valley in the late afternoon
  and evening, and then for the northeast during the overnight
  hours. Main threats include 1 to 2 inch diameter hail and
  wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Storms haven`t really panned out very well considering the consensus
among CAMS for the last 24 hours. Warn on forecast still indicates
some development along and southeast of highway 14 over the next
hour or two so we could still be dealing with warnable storms
through the early morning hours. Again, large hail and high winds as
outlined in the previous discussions/updates are the chief concern.

And we`ll try to do it all again later today. Flow remains
northwesterly aloft, with a subtle trough going across the Dakotas
03-09Z. Not much different, with strong unidirectional shear
overall, but weak mid level warm advection and light low level flow
at/off the surface. 1/2km winds are only about 15-20kts out of the
southeast. CAMS are much less organized and more inconsistent in
placement of individual convection. Thus, much lower confidence in
regards to POPs (ie timing & coverage).

Still looks to be a nice shift into cooler temperatures for the
latter half of the work week though overall the upper level flow
regime remains northwesterly. A ridge builds in from the west Friday
as an upper high shifts from 4-corners centric to southeast CONUS,
which may then retrograde back to the west next week. Overall, flow
remains active and its hard to support the elimination of NBM
spammed POPs for any one specific period.

In regards to smoke, not much overall change. Flow aloft will
continue to support high smoke streaming across the region and
helping to suppress temperatures slightly. Low level flow around the
cooler high pressure system mid-week may present a risk but smoke
would have to take a circuitous route as boreal/northern Canada
doesn`t appear to be a source region anymore.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions currently and VFR is forecast over the next 24
hours. Guidance for convection is unrealistic/unhelpful at the
moment. Synoptic-setup supports organized convection this morning,
but no organized convection has happened. For now, will clear the
slate of convection until some semblance of confidence to mention it
in a TAF can be had.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...10