997
FXUS63 KABR 160634
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
134 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very cold air, for March, will be over the region today, with
temperatures some 15 to 30 degrees below normal. Wind chill values
this morning are expected to be in the teens below to 20s below zero.

- There`s a 70-90% chance of a wintry mix of precipitation on
Tuesday, over central and northeastern South Dakota and west central
Minnesota. At this time, light snow accumulation mainly over
northeast South Dakota and west central Minnesota and light ice
accumulation mainly west of the James River are forecast.

- Depending on how long it takes to melt the snow, temperatures over
a large portion of the forecast area could be in the 60s and 70s
Thursday and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 134 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Winds over northeastern SD will continue to decrease into the
morning, with gusts of 30 mph or more exiting the state by mid
morning. The colder air will be sticking around today and will keep
temperatures today 15-30 degrees below normal, with the coldest
temperatures and wind chills happening this morning, with wind
chills in the negative teens to negative 20s. High surface pressure
over central SD will expand into northeastern SD during the day, and
will help to keep stronger winds out of the area and sunny to mostly
sunny skies around. Temperatures and wind chills will be a bit
warmer Monday night into Tuesday morning, though there could still
be wind chills in the negative teens over northeastern SD.

An upper-level shortwave will move over SD Tuesday and will help to
push a warm front through central and northeastern SD. Precipitation
is forecast to develop along the front and move through that area
during the morning and afternoon. Warm air advection aloft will
interact with this precipitation and will cause a mix of snow,
sleet, freezing rain, and rain to occur as the precipitation moves
through the area. Models still vary how fast the air aloft gets
above freezing and how that will affect the type of precipitation
falling. Model soundings from the NAM shows snow quickly turning to
freezing rain for a few hours during the morning for central SD
while the GFS keeps the air cold enough for mainly only snow before
the precipitation chances decrease. Model soundings for northeastern
SD show snow for a bit longer in the morning and into afternoon
before changing to sleet and freezing rain for a hour or two.

Due to differences in the models there is still a bit lower
confidence in how quickly the precipitation type changes, how long
there will be freezing precipitation, how much ice might accumulate,
and if temperatures will be able to warm above freezing in the
afternoon long enough to melt the ice that could accumulate. High-
res model ensembles have a 30-70% chance for greater than 0.01 inch
of ice to occur west of the Missouri river and less than a 10%
chance to the east, as well as 15-30% chance for 0.03 inches of ice
or more to accumulate west of the Missouri River. Other model
ensembles have only a 30-50% chance for greater than 0.01 inches of
ice to accumulate over central SD but it has a 10-20% chance over
areas between the James River and the Prairie Coteau. Snow amount
are forecast to be low, and will depend on how long areas receive
snow before it switches to freezing rain. Areas in central SD could
receive a dusting to a half inch of snow and northeastern SD,
especially far northeastern SD and west central MN, could get a half
inch to a little more than an inch of snow. In addition to the
threat of ice and snow, winds Tuesday afternoon could gust up around
30 mph over northeastern SD. If snow is still falling when these
winds are occurring, it could cause some localized areas of blowing
and drifting snow.

An upper-level ridge over the West Coast is slowly moving towards SD
and should move over the state during the end of work week into the
weekend. This will help to warm temperatures 10-25 degrees above
normal. Additionally, precipitation chances are forecast to stay out
of central and northeastern SD into the weekend. Though, some models
do show a line of precipitation moving through MN, with a couple
having the edge clip far northeastern SD and west central MN. If the
tracks of this precipitation shifts slightly, those areas could see
an increase chance for precipitation.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period, although there
are a few pockets of clouds around 3000ft across central SD that
may briefly move over KPIR/KMBG into the wee hours of Monday
morning.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...TMT