695
FXUS63 KABR 190754
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
154 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lingering light snow will be possible over far northeastern SD and
western MN today. Less than an inch of additional accumulation is
expected. Minor reductions in visibility due to the snow and wind
combination will be possible.

- Strong winds continue today, coming out of the northwest at 20-25
miles per hour, gusting up to 35. Winds are expected to diminish
down to 10-15 mph sustained overnight and into Friday

- Temperatures in the upper teens to 20s (roughly 10 degrees below
normal) will continue through this weekend. A warming trend is
expected at the start of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 141 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

The main forecast concern this morning is a lingering band of snow
over far northeastern South Dakota and western Minnesota. Current
observations show fairly light snowfall rates, but combined with
winds around 15 mph gusting to 25-30 mph, there have still been some
intermittent minor visibility reductions to around 2 miles. There is
some signal in high-res model guidance for this wrap-around snow
band to stick around over that same area through the rest of the day
today, continuing to produce some light snow. There are varying
degrees of longevity for this band shown in the models, but some
carry it as late as this evening. While confidence is low on timing,
the light snowfall rates will most likely limit any additional
accumulations to less than an inch. Elsewhere, some flurries may be
possible out of the low-level clouds over the region today but no
accumulation is expected. Gusty northwesterly winds will remain in
place today as well, sustained between 20-25 mph gusting up to 35
mph over central and north central South Dakota this afternoon.
Winds are expected to diminish overnight and into Friday.

Below normal temperatures will stick around for the next couple of
days, with highs ranging in the upper teens to the mid 20s across
the forecast area through the weekend. The upper-level pattern will
begin to change this weekend, as an upper-level ridge builds in and
allows for a warmer airmass to take hold. By next week highs look to
be roughly 10-20 degrees above normal for late February (highs in
the 40s and 50s through mid-week). Precipitation chances are limited
through the weekend, a trend that appears to continue with the upper-
level ridge dominating the pattern through the start of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1139 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

An increase in MVFR CIGs are forecast overnight into Thursday
morning. Already seeing MVFR CIGs in KATY and KMBG areas at the
start of the TAF period. There`s potential to see these CIGs dip
into IFR also, but mainly at KATY. Breezy northwest surface winds
will continue through the overnight and into the day Thursday.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...10