371
FXUS63 KABR 010153 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
753 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Band of snow should continue to weaken and shift southeast into
  the evening hours with little to no additional accumulations.

- Temperatures warming back up to above normal values again next
  week. Warmest Wednesday/Thursday at 15 to 25 degree above normal
  (Highs: mid 50s to mid 60s).

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 749 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Flurries are persistent across much of the eastern CWA and had
earlier inserted "likely flurries" through at least 06Z and will
take another look at possible extensions at that time. Little to
no additional accumulations expected through the night. Increased
sky cover up through 06Z as stratus deck remains in place. Models
suggest a slow breaking up of stratus overnight, but not highly
confident in this, and to what extent. If clouds hang in most of
the night, forecast lows are likely too cold and may have to
adjust readings upwards a few degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1257 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Band of snow has cycled, nearly dissipating before suddenly being
resurrected. Getting some big flakes so another 1/2 inch
potential is not out of the question. Expect this brief blip in
snowfall rates will reverse course and continue on the downwards
trend following most CAM guidance for the afternoon.

1036-38mb high pressure over the ND/MN Canadian border area this
evening will drift east southeast into the Western Lakes region.
This keeps us on the periphery, with a weak gradient. Clearing and
fresh snow will allow for ideal radiational conditions for the far
northeast, though elsewhere its less certain whether the moisture
will go anywhere.

For Sunday night through mid day Monday, with the high well to the
east, look for southerly return flow. Gradient is only about 8-10 mb
across the state. NBM temperatures increase to above the freezing
mark across the CWA at 18Z, so will begin to see modification of the
existing snow cover. Peak gradient is about 12mb by Monday
afternoon, enough where there would be some concern for near ground
blowing/drifting but with temperatures above freezing should not be
impactful. Could be a window in the overnight hours with
temperatures dropping to where a re-freeze could impact travel, but
by then we have increased clouds with a weak system. This is the
northern wave in a split flow regime with a stronger vort moving
into the Central Plains. As such, BUFKIT profiles depict a classic
mid level saturation/weak ascent regime over a warm and dry subcloud
layer, where by the time you saturate the lift has moved on. The end
result is typically just some light rain showers with ground
temperatures close to the freezing mark.

Mid week should be dry with a weak surface pressure pattern. There
will be a plume of mild air that we`ve already addressed for early
Monday. 850mb temperature comparison shows a range of about 3-6C,
but its uncertain how well we`ll do with the recent snow cover. That
mild air does`t really go anywhere during the work week. Warmest
readings are expected ahead of the next system for the latter half
of the work week. Should be noted that there is quite a bit of
spread (in excess of 10F) in NBM 25th - 75th percentile ranges
during the week, so still some low confidence on how warm we`ll get.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 528 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Band of -SN continues to weaken over the region and expect
generally VFR VSBY in -SN (KABR/KATY) as it tapers off through
the start of the TAF period. MVFR CIGs affecting KMBG this evening
also and should remain in place into the evening hours, with
uncertainty on how long they will last. Although, forecast trend
is for VFR by morning. Elsewhere, CIGs forecast to remain VFR,
although cannot rule out some lowering clouds into MVFR overnight
and will continue to monitor. Line of MVFR CIGs just north of KPIR
may sink back towards the terminal this evening and may have to
adjust the TAF as it approaches by 00Z/01Z.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...TMT