513
FXUS63 KABR 011948
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
148 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures warming back up to above normal values again next
week. Warmest Wednesday/Thursday around 20 degrees above normal with
highs mainly in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

- There is a 30% chance of a wintry mix of precipitation Thursday
night into Friday. The chance of 1" of snow or more is limited to
15% across most of west central MN and the southeastern half of SD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 147 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Snow cover remains over much of northeastern and west central
Minnesota, with dry conditions continuing over portions of central
to south central South Dakota. The current surface weather map shows
a 1037mb high over western Lake Superior/Upper Michigan and an
elongated trough of low pressure stretching from Saskatchewan through
western MT and WY.

For tonight, winds just above the surface will increase to around 35-
40kts over our downslope areas near the Prairie Coteau. However,
given the less favorable wind direction, mainly out of the south,
the impacts should be limited and localized. Still, winds and gusts
were increased around 5kts to align with the potential for stronger
gusts.

While there is precipitation in the forecast for the southern half
of South Dakota Monday afternoon into Monday evening as a weak
surface trough shifts across the area, extending from the WY eastern
low and is assisted by a 500mb wave. There is only 20 percent chance
of light rain, with little to no precipitation expected. The recent
model trends have been to limit the northern movement across the
forecast area. Given the dry grounds over mainly south central SD,
we will continue to note any weather of interest with regards to
fire concerns. Relative humidity values bottom out in the 35 to 45
percent range over central South Dakota Monday, with winds will be
out of a southerly direction gusting 20 to 25 mph. Lighter winds
will dominate north central South Dakota on Monday.

High temperatures will be on the increase through Thursday as the
500mb ridge builds overhead. The warmest and driest conditions
Wednesday and Thursday will be over south central South Dakota where
highs will be in the 50s and 60s and relative humidity values will
near 25 to 35 percent. Even through temperatures will be well around
20 degrees above normal Wednesday and Thursday, they will still be
10-15 degrees below record highs for this time of year.

Precipitation chances return Thursday night though Friday. This will
be associated with the 500mb trough moving into the western U.S.
Wednesday and diving into the 4-corners region to CO by 00Z Friday.
The surface low over eastern CO Thursday afternoon will push a
trough through central SD. The low will move across KS Thursday
night with the trough pushing over far eastern SD/western MN, with
cold air rushing in behind the low. Expect a wintry mix of rain,
snow, and potentially freezing rain. At this point, the chance of
freezing rain is less than 10% Thursday night through the day
Friday. If the current trend holds, mainly dry weather will remain
over north central SD (farther from the surface low over KS Friday
that will push northeast across between eastern SD and IA by 00Z
Saturday, and exit over MN/WI Friday night). There is more
variability in the forecast for the weekend which now only shows up
in the around 10F degree 25-75th percentiles, and variability in the
sky and wind forecast. There is a consistent pattern however, with
the a broad trough sinking south with a higher chance of lower
temperatures for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1124 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will continue through the next 24 hours. MVFR
ceilings this morning at ABR and temporarily at ATY have lifted.
Winds out of the southeast to south will continue at most
locations, with gusts up to 25kts today and again Monday morning.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...06
AVIATION...06