577
FXUS63 KABR 051727 AAD
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1127 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal high temperatures are expected today, Sunday and
Monday, with readings closer to or just a few degrees below normal
Friday into Saturday and again Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.

- There is a 40-75% chance of precipitation occurring from late
tonight through Friday night, with much of the precipitation falling
as rain tonight into Friday. A moving corridor of wintry mix
precipitation (freezing rain, sleet and snow) is expected to chase
the rain eastward into Minnesota Friday afternoon into Friday
evening.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1125 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Updated discussion for the 18Z TAFs below.

UPDATE Issued at 853 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Opted to extend Dense Fog Advisory to Noon CST per the latest
rendition of visibility guidance and satellite data showing alot
of counties socked in right now. There are a few counties showing
some improvement, and they may be able to be removed from the
advisory prior to Noon. But, for now, (dense) fog is still a
concern over much of the CWA this morning.

Otherwise, no changes to temperatures planned yet. Will see this
stationary boundary over the CWA re-orientate to nearly a north-
south position across the Missouri River valley region of the CWA
today. Plenty of strong low level WAA to be had, if/when these low
clouds and fog lift. Thinking current forecast high temperatures
are still within hailing distance, but will keep an eye on that in
case high temperatures need to be lowered. Updates are out.

UPDATE Issued at 521 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Updated aviation discussion below.

UPDATE Issued at 128 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

With southerly wind gusts of 25 to 30 mph, temperatures
approaching 70 degrees relative humidity values of 30 to 40
percent, and dry fuels, grassland fire danger will reach the very
high category across south central SD this afternoon. Any fires
that start will spread quickly and be hard to contain. Conditions
are expected to improve tonight when the rain moves into the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 113 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

As of 1 AM CST, there is a dense fog advisory in effect for portions
of northern SD. Conditions are expected to improve through the
morning hours. Currently, temperatures are in the 20s to low 30s
with winds out of the south between 5 and 15 mph. Highs today will
be 20-25 degrees above average, in the mid 50s and 60s, potentially
reaching 70 degrees in south central SD.

The cold front from the incoming low will stall over southern
ND/northern SD today before moving northeast to southwest across the
area this evening into Friday morning. The low will then move
northeast across northern NE/eastern SD/western MN during the day
Friday.

Rain showers will begin this evening and last through most
of the overnight/early morning hours. This is when most of the QPF
will fall. Precip type changes over to a line of freezing rain
between the Missouri and James valleys a couple hours before
sunrise. This line will then move east during the day, filling in as
snow behind as the boundary moves east. This line does move fairly
quickly, which will help keep ice accumulation to a couple
hundredths of an inch across the eastern half of the CWA. The chance
of more than a hundredth of an inch of flat ice accumulation is
generally 10-30% with a bullseye of 40-50% over and around the
Prairie Coteau. The chance of more than a tenth of an inch is around
10% in this same area. QPF forecasts have reduced, and with a bit
more ice forecast than previous forecasts, the snowfall forecast has
come down. The chance for more than 2 inches is still between 20 and
40% but this is from Friday morning on with highest chances over
south central SD instead of northeastern SD. The uncertainty in this
forecast is with how quickly the layer above the surface cools. If
it cools faster than forecast, the transition from freezing rain to
snow would be faster, leading to higher snow accumulations and lower
ice accumulations.

Models are still showing sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph and gusts
of 30 to 40 mph. With how close temperatures will be to freezing,
expected wind, current snow pack (not all that much), and snowfall
forecast, blowing and drifting snow may cause brief reductions in
visibility. With potential icy roads, this could create hazardous
driving conditions. A winter headline may be necessary if the
storm continues on a similar track.

Temperatures are expected to recover quickly after this low moves
through. Sunday is expected to be the warmest, with highs 15 to 25
degrees above average. Tuesday and Wednesday of next week will
return us to more normal temperatures and also bring back
precipitation chances.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1125 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Widespread MVFR/IFR conditions slowly improving early in the TAF
period for all terminals except KPIR (remains VFR). Low cigs and fog
still gradually lifting through the early afternoon hours with a
period of VFR conditions expected this afternoon into early this
evening. A storm system approaching the area from the southwest will
bring southerly winds with gusts exceeding 15 to 25 knots tonight
becoming northwest winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots.
IFR conditions return later tonight and into the morning hours on
Friday with drizzle/freezing drizzle possible before the
rain/freezing rain and snow develops.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ today for
     SDZ003>011-021.

MN...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MMM
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...MMM