094
FXUS63 KABR 100523 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1223 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Frost development expected Sunday morning and Monday morning
  with localized freezing temperatures possible. A Frost
  Advisory has been issued for Sunday morning across portions of
  north central to northeastern SD into west central MN.

- High temperatures Monday through Saturday will be in the 70s
  and 80s, highest Thursday through Saturday when temperatures
  will be around 20 degrees above normal.

- Fire weather concerns return for much of the work week due to
  dry and warmer weather and periods of stronger winds,
  particularly Monday, Tuesday, and Thursday.

- Wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph, with a few locations gusting to around
  50 mph are forecast Tuesday and Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 858 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

No changes to the Frost Advisory for the overnight hours, and
little changes to lows in general. Looking for lows in the
low/mid 30s for the advisory area, but would not be surprised if
some areas sneak closer to 30 or even the upper 20s. All depends
on cloud cover. There are indications of increasing mid/high
level clouds late tonight, so this will be key in just how low
temperatures get. Due to this, confidence is somewhat
low as to whether or not a more widespread freeze (and
potential headline upgrade) will occur, so will leave things
alone at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 119 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

A large area of high pressure over much of central Canada continues
to push an in increasing ridge south across the Dakotas and MN.

The starting of the spring growing season and a cold night under
high pressure will combine to create frost to freeze conditions over
much of the area. The Frost Advisory for overnight tonight into
Sunday morning has been expanded to include Dewey and Stanley
Counties of central SD. Temperatures may briefly fall below
freezing across portions of northern SD from the MO River to
Sisseton.

Temperatures will be similar Sunday, but with lighter winds and
fewer clouds as the ridge of high pressure continues to dominate the
area. By 00Z Monday the 1024mb surface high will reside from
southern Manitoba and Ontario through northeastern ND and northern
ND. The surface high will reside across the Upper Great Lakes
Monday morning, with increasing south-southeasterly winds
through the day over our area as a trough of low pressure nears
from the west. Winds will gust 25-35mph, and not relax much
Monday night.

Fire weather concerns return Monday and Tuesday as dry weather
continues and winds increase. The main concern will be Tuesday east
of the Missouri River. On the Ensemble Situation Awareness table,
ECMWF extreme forecast index values are over 0.6 for our
northeastern counties, and over 0.7 for our 4 farthest northeastern
counties. Wind Advisories may be needed for portions of northeastern
SD Tuesday. The current forecast calls for wind gusts around 10kts
higher than what we experience Monday, so 35-45 mph (strongest east
of the MO River).

We`ll be monitoring the passing cold front Monday evening into the
early overnight hours for not only a wind shift that could be a
concern for any ongoing fires, but for the potential for a few
showers and thunderstorms mainly over northeastern SD/west central
MN. Limited precipitation is expected over the next week.

After lighter winds Wednesday (gusts 15-30 mph strongest west of the
MO River), stronger winds will return again Thursday. Winds
will be out of the south with gusts of 35-45 mph. Grassland Fire
Danger Index values will rise into the high to very high for
much of the area Tuesday and again Thursday. Given the strong
winds, blowing dust may also be a concern. From Monday through
the rest of the work week, relative humidity values are forecast
to fall into the teens to low 20% range west of the James
River, and into the 25-35% range east of the James River.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected through Sunday.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning for
     SDZ003>011-015>023-034>037.
MN...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
DISCUSSION...06
AVIATION...20