695
FXUS63 KABR 122242
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
442 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures by 15 to 25 degrees expected through
  Monday.

- Precipitation chances return Tuesday afternoon (40-60% northern
  SD) with rain initially during the day, then rain/snow mix
  Tuesday night becoming mostly snow on Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 442 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Few changes were needed under a mostly clear sky with light winds
this evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1113 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Dry weather and above average temperatures will continue into early
next week. Ridging aloft and high pressure at the sfc are expected
to dominate through Sunday. High temperatures will remain 15 to 25
degrees above climo norms.

The pattern changes abruptly on Tuesday, though models are still not
in full agreement on exact timing, position or strength of the sfc
low and upper trough that moves into the Plains. For the moment,
South Dakota may remain mostly dry until Tuesday night when a trowal
sets up, but caa is minimal. So, this all may depend on timing as
daytime highs appear to stay above freezing on Wednesday while
overnight lows drop below freezing each night. Some mix of rain/snow
is expected but details remain sketchy this far out.

The only other thing of note in the short term is the potential for
some patchy fog development late tonight into Friday morning from
the James valley east.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 442 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions and light winds will be the theme over the next 24
hours at most locations. Overnight-morning fog will be a concern
at ABR and ATY, with visibility dropping down to around 2SM from
mainly 09-12Z Friday.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...06
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...06