294
FXUS63 KABR 212135
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
335 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong northwest winds and periodic visibility reductions in snow
  bands/showers diminish this evening/overnight.

- Bitterly/dangerously cold air moves in Thursday night and
  persists through the weekend. At its coldest, wind chill values
  bottom out from 30 below to 45 below zero Thursday night into
  Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 335 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Winds are slowly diminishing across the region, but still gusting
between 45 and 55 mph across portions of the area. Although, this is
much less than some of the 60 to nearly 80 mph gusts from earlier
this morning. Also continue to see bands of snow showers working
southeast across the Dakotas. When these short-lived snow bands move
through a particular location, visibility drops significantly.
Winter Weather Advisory and Wind Advisory remain in effect through
00Z this evening across the CWA to account for the strong winds and
periodic quick/sudden reductions in visibility in falling/blowing
snow.

Focus then shifts to the arctic cold and bitterly/dangerously cold
wind chills settling in Thursday night into the weekend. 925mb temps
drop to around -30C Thursday night as the arctic high begins moving
southeast across the Dakotas. Low temps Thursday night still in the
teens below and 20s below zero, with wind chill values from 30 below
to as cold as 45 below across the CWA. Coldest readings occur early
Friday morning and will generally be across northern/northeast SD
into west central MN. Will leave cold headlines in place for the
time being and later shifts can fine tune where the split will be
for cold advisory vs extreme cold warning.

The bitterly cold temps stick around through the weekend, with highs
on Friday likely not even getting above zero. Single digits
above/below zero for highs Saturday and Sunday, with lows generally
in the teens below zero. Looking at apparent T grids throughout the
weekend, it would appear we`re close to potential advisory headlines
for cold at times, but that can be sorted out later once we get
through the initial (and most impactful) surge of cold Thursday
night and Friday.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 138 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Areas of BLSN through the afternoon, along with a few -SHSN
possible. MVFR/IFR VSBY possible in BLSN/-SHSN, although the least
chance of these conditions seem to be across KPIR. Pockets of MVFR
CIGs across the region as well through the TAF period. Strong
northwest surface wind gusts from 35-45 knots still expected
through the afternoon before dying down this evening/overnight.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening
     for SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-051.

     Extreme Cold Watch from Thursday evening through Friday
     afternoon for SDZ003>011-015>023-034-036-037.

     Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ Thursday to 3 PM
     CST /2 PM MST/ Friday for SDZ033-035-045-048-051.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for SDZ045-048.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MNZ039-
     046.

     Extreme Cold Watch from Thursday evening through Friday
     afternoon for MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TMT
AVIATION...TMT