782
FXUS63 KABR 252346
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
646 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is 40-70% chance of light rain over northern SD overnight
tonight into Thursday morning, primarily north of SD Highway 20.
Light rain accumulations of less than 0.10" are forecast.

- As temperatures cool towards freezing Thursday morning, the rain
will mix with and then change over to snow. Little to no snow
accumulation is expected on Thursday.

- Winds out of the north will gust 30 to 40 mph Thursday morning
into the early afternoon hours behind a cold front, before slowly
diminishing. Another round of gusty winds may be possible Thursday
night into Friday morning, although confidence is low at this time.

- Highs in the 40s will be near to around 5 degrees below normal
Thursday and Friday. High temperatures, in the 60s and 70s, will
return to above normal readings this weekend through Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 646 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Update for the 00Z Aviation Discussion below and the following
update:


Minor changes to the going forecast for tonight into Thursday,
primarily with the PoPs/QPF/P-Type. Latest deterministic/ensemble
models continue to point towards precipitation developing in
southern MT later this evening (starting to see hints of it
southwest of Billings) and then spreading to the east-northeast
overnight. This precip is tied to an area of FGen around 700mb on
the leading edge of the colder air aloft. While there remains
uncertainty on the exact position of the precip, it seems like
models are settling in on it being around the ND/SD border, give
or take 50-75 miles north or south. Fortunately much of this
precipitation (which could produce a localized area of 0.1-0.25"
liquid accum) will fall as rain initially. As colder air moves in
towards Thursday morning, would expect a transition to a mix of
rain/snow and eventually all snow towards mid morning as the band
starts to weaken and move south. Did introduce a little bit of
FZRA accumulation over the far northeast part of SD
(Marshall/Roberts/Day counties), where wetbulb temperatures fall
low enough to lead to a potential for freezing rain (also seeing
this indication in EC-EPS members, but even farther west towards
Aberdeen). One limited factor will likely be the current warm
temperatures and largely unfrozen ground, which may be enough for
the rain to not freeze on roadways. Will be monitoring the MRMS
Prob of Subfreezing road temps through the night and tomorrow
morning. Second item of note is the potential for an earlier
transition to snow with the band (aided by evaporative cooling
from the dry air initially), which could lead to snow
accumulations on grassy surfaces at a minimum. Hi-Res models have
fluctuating greatly on this potential, and does appear to be a low
probability potential (only around a 10 percent chance of over an
inch of snow), but wanted to at least mention it. Did increase
the snow probabilities a little in the forecast to get some
measurable (0.1") into the forecast over the north and will let
the next shift get one final look.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Taking a look at the latest surface weather map, high pressure was
set up over central Canada through much of the eastern U.S., with a
low moving onshore over southern British Columbia. In between, there
are several smaller troughs of low pressure set up off the Rocky
Mountains.

Mild weather remains overhead. Normal high temperatures for this
time of year are in the 40s, with low 50s over our southwestern
counties. Highs today mainly in the 70s are well above (nearly 30F
above) normal. 850mb temperatures are in the 11 to 18C range, with
much cooler air across ND.

The initial push of cold air south into SD/west central MN will
occur overnight, with 850mb temperatures falling to 1 to 6F by 12Z
Thursday. A low level jet of 30-45kts develops overnight into
Thursday morning (with the trend on the latest runs leaning to the
lighter side for winds). At this point, the strongest winds at the
surface look to be south of highway 12, and mainly focused along our
southern border 11-15Z. Gusts of 30-40 mph are forecast. The cold
front will also bring a 30-50% chance of precipitation, highest over
far northern SD/west central MN. There is a 30-50% chance of
accumulations over 0.10" north of U.S. Highway 12.

850mb temperatures will continue to fall through Friday morning,
bottoming out around -13 to -5C (lowest over west central MN) around
18Z Friday. So, highs Thursday and Friday will be near to around 5F
below normal.

Expect a secondary push of strong winds over north central SD 03-06Z
Friday. The NAM and HRRR are a couple of the strongest solutions,
indicating the potential for gusts of over 40 mph. One concern is if
we`ll be able to mix that high, with many other solutions not
indicating that strong of winds. We have time between now and then
to take additional looks at the latest guidance. Again, the
strongest winds would be during the nighttime hours, and confidence
is low on specifics with a secondary push of cold air/strong winds.

The colder air will result in highs in the 40s Thursday and Friday.
Fire weather concerns continue to slowly increase lack of
significant precipitation over the last several days, and more
drying in store for pre-greenup grasses and shrubs. We get a brief
reprieve Thursday due to the colder air and higher relative humidity.
On Friday, dewpoints will be in the 10-15F range, resulting in
minimum relative humidity values of 20-35%, but winds will be light
during the day. High to Very High Grassland Fire Danger Index values
return Saturday and continue through at least Tuesday. We`ll be
monitoring the wind forecast trends for this period. At this time,
the strongest winds initially on Sunday will be prior to peak
heating, which will limit fire concerns a bit.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 646 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

All sites will be under VFR conditions through the first third of
the forecast, then a cold front moving through will shift the
winds to the north (gusting to 20-30kts) and bring MVFR ceilings
and increased potential for precipitation. Feel the most confident
in precipitation at KABR/KMBG based on the west-east orientation
of the band that will slowly sink south and dissipate through the
day Thursday. Expect primarily rain through around 12Z, then will
see it mixing with and turning over to snow by mid morning
Thursday. While current forecast has precipitation chances around
50%, opted to add it to the prevailing during Thursday morning as
that`s when confidence is the greatest.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SRF
DISCUSSION...06
AVIATION...SRF