853
FXUS63 KABR 130049 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
749 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm, dry, and windy into the early evening with record/near
  record highs and critical fire weather conditions for portions
  of central/south central SD. Critical/near critical fire
  weather conditions again across south central SD on Monday.

- Strong storms possible Monday afternoon. Slight Risk (level 2
  of 5) for severe weather along and east of the Interstate 29
  corridor. Large hail up to 1 or 2 inches in diameter is the
  main threat.

- Strong cold front will bring colder temperatures back to the
  region Friday into the upcoming weekend, with highs back to
  below normal values.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 747 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

The backdoor cold front set to impact the CWA with cooler air
and low clouds/fog, turning winds around to the northeast, is
just about to cross the Dakotas border and enter South Dakota.
Allowed the Red Flag Warning to expire back at the top of the
hour. No changes planned to the rest of the tonight period
forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 636 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Much of the area seeing 30-35 mph wind gusts this afternoon, with a
few areas even closer to 40 mph. RH values not quite as low as
expected across the southwest CWA, but they are dropping through the
mid/upper 20s percent with several more hours of heating/drying to
go, so still some time for values to get down to around 20 percent
in regards to verifying the Red Flag Warning in place. No changes to
the headline for today, but did add another warning for the far
southwest counties tomorrow as wind/RH look to meet or be very close
to criteria once again.

For tonight, a cold front drops south through northern SD and
switches winds to a northeast direction. Models also indicating more
stratus clouds developing over northern SD within the cooler and
more moist atmosphere post-frontal. Also, there are hints of fog
over northern areas, more so in the Coteau region where upslope
winds may aid in formation.

On Monday, the frontal boundary will become stationary across
southern SD. A wave of low pressure moves along the front, while
shortwave energy approaches the Northern Plains by late afternoon.
Models still indicating thunderstorm activity as far west as the far
eastern CWA, but with more areal coverage across MN. This shows up
nicely in HREF Paintball output, giving low confidence in overall
areal coverage and thunderstorm threat for the far east. By late
afternoon, surface boundary looks to be set from from near KHON to
KBKX, with ML CAPE values generally around 1000-1200 J/KG over the
southeast CWA. Better dewpoints closer to 60 degrees set up further
east into MN, but over the southeast CWA they should be able to
reach the low/mid 50s. If any storms were to get going just north of
the boundary over the far eastern/southeast CWA, it appears there is
potential for them to become severe, with large hail up to 1-2" in
diameter. The big question is overall areal coverage and whether or
not the threat actually shifts east into MN after 00Z.

Strong cold front still on track to move through the region towards
the end of the week, likely Thursday/Thursday night. After highs in
the 70s to near 80 on Thursday, still anticipating highs on Friday
to drop back down considerably, most likely in the 40s to low 50s.
With that change in air masses comes a chance for rain/snow,
although QPF looks rather limited as Grand Ensemble probs for
greater than 0.25in is around 10 percent or less across the CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 636 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will prevail into this evening, with westerly
surface winds diminishing. Late tonight into early Monday
morning, MVFR/IFR CIGs are forecast to move back into northern
SD, following the passage of a back-door cold front. KABR/KMBG
and perhaps KATY are expected to be impacted. Surface winds will
also switch from westerly to the northeast/east behind this
frontal passage.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ to 8 PM CDT /7 PM
     MDT/ Monday for SDZ033-045-048.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...TMT
AVIATION...10