265
FXUS63 KABR 062242
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
542 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A slight warmup is expected beginning Thursday, with near-normal
temperatures (highs in the upper 60s to low 70s) expected through
the weekend.

- Dry and windy conditions are expected Friday. Humidity of 20-25%
and wind gusts of 25-35 miles per hour may combine to create
elevated fire weather concerns over part of northern South Dakota.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 542 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

The daytime cumulus clouds remain in place late this
afternoon/early this evening, but will diminish in coverage as
we lose daytime heating. No significant changes are expected to
the ongoing forecast.

A Record Event Report was issued for Mobridge, as they set a
record low of 20 degrees this morning. This broke the previous
record of 22 degrees from 1929.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Upper-level trough remains the dominant influence over the region
today, continuing to bring below normal temperatures to the Aberdeen
forecast area. A high pressure center to the southwest will bring
northwesterly winds of 10 to 15 miles per hour gusting to 25 through
the remainder of this afternoon to early evening. Diurnal cumulus is
also expected to persist through that same period, with mid-level
moisture supporting some additional cloud cover sticking around
overnight. As the high pressure progresses off to the south and the
pressure gradient weakens, winds will become light and variable,
although generally will carry a southerly component.

While the broad pattern will hold consistent for the next couple of
days, slight height rises (~5-10 dam at 500mb Thursday into Friday)
will facilitate a bit of a warming trend, bringing highs up to near-
normal by Friday. Warm temperatures will push afternoon humidity
down below 25 percent both Thursday afternoon (lowest in the James
River Valley) and Friday afternoon (mainly west of the James River).
Grassland Fire Danger is generally expected to remain low to
moderate despite the dry conditions, with the exception of part of
the James River Valley where the lowest humidity and strongest winds
(gusting to 25 to 35 miles per hour out of the northwest) combine.
While nothing has been issued on this shift, can`t rule out the
possibility of reaching Red Flag Warning criteria over a portion of
northern South Dakota. However, there is still plenty of uncertainty
with both fuel status as well as temperatures/humidity (due to the
current forecast having minimum humidity sitting at to just above
the 20 percent threshold). Will continue to monitor conditions for
future forecasts.

Pattern will hold through the weekend, and little of note is
expected other than some slight chances for some light rain showers
to clip part of central South Dakota Saturday afternoon. With any
showers that do develop, little to no accumulation is anticipated.
Upper-level trough to the east will deepen early next week, allowing
for a weak ridge to exert influence into the region and bring some
warmer temperatures to start next week. 500mb heights of roughly 570
dam Monday into Tuesday sit at roughly the 75th percentile for mid-
May. This corresponds to surface temperatures expected to be in the
70s to low 80s, roughly 5-15 degrees above normal. Nothing
substantial in terms of precipitation in the extended, but both a
jet streak set to move overhead and a cold front may potentially
produce some light showers through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 542 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will continue, with winds generally 10kts or less
through the forecast period.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...06
DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...06