914
FXUS63 KABR 080146 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
846 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and breezy conditions are expected Friday. Afternoon
  humidity will drop between 20 to 30 percent and combine with
  wind gusts of 25 to 35 miles per hour. This may create
  elevated fire weather concerns.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 843 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

Quiet overnight period in store across the region with just some
increasing mid/high clouds through the night. Winds will be
light with lows dropping into the 30s for many areas. No big
changes to the forecast through 12Z Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

Mostly clear skies this afternoon, with light and variable winds
from this morning transitioning to become northwesterly through the
rest of this afternoon and evening. Still expecting sustained speeds
around 10 to 15 miles per hour, with an occasional gust to around 20
miles per hour. Dew points have dropped a bit more than expected
this afternoon over north central South Dakota, leading to some
pockets of humidity below 20 percent this afternoon. While fire
weather conditions are not a major consideration this afternoon, dry
conditions combined with the winds may pose a minor concern.

A slight warmup in temperatures Friday (highs into the low to mid
70s) will help keep conditions dry Friday afternoon, with afternoon
humidity bottoming out between 20 and 25 percent. A tightening
pressure gradient will bring the return of northwesterly winds
Friday afternoon, gusting between 25 and 35 miles per hour. The
combination of dry and and windy conditions may be enough to create
elevated fire weather concerns, and reaching Red Flag conditions is
not out of the question. Latest HREF joint probabilities give a
broad 10 to 20 percent chance of reaching that criteria over
northeastern South Dakota and western Minnesota, although forecaster
confidence is perhaps slightly higher. Either way, Grassland Fire
Danger will also depend on the status of fuels, and confidence is
currently low on that point. Therefore, when taking that into
account with the marginal setup, no fire weather headlines will be
issued at this time.

There is an increasing signal for some light rain to clip the
Aberdeen forecast area over northeastern South Dakota and western
Minnesota Friday night into early Saturday morning. Vorticity
maximum aloft will be the main driver of these showers, and the
current expectations are for fairly light showers overall. Only a
couple of hundredths at the most are currently expected, with the
best chances (roughly 20-40%) occurring after midnight.

A quick note on the potential for rain over central South Dakota on
Saturday: The latest ensemble guidance continues the trend of
keeping precipitation to the south and west of the Aberdeen CWA. As
the event grows nearer, confidence is growing on central South
Dakota (namely Stanley/Jones/Lyman counties where the best chances
would be located) seeing no rain on Saturday.

By early next week, an embedded shortwave will move over the
northern plains, bringing a jet streak along with it at the base of
the wave. The divergence aloft will support chances for rain showers
and thunderstorms Monday evening. Confidence is not high in severe
storms developing, but can`t rule anything out at this point. While
a plume of MUCAPE extends into the region, the best chances for
precipitation generated by the jet streak don`t quite line up with
the MUCAPE, the latter located to the southwest of the former. The
best chance for a severe storm to develop would likely be if there
is enough of an intersection between the location of the instability
and the jet streak, which would likely only occur for a short time
period. There also seems to be a lot of uncertainty between models
on where the position of the jet streak going to be, namely the Euro
ensemble pushing things much further south (out of the Aberdeen CWA)
than the latest GEFS run. The NBM forecast appears to agree with the
GEFS for the moment, but there is still plenty of time for this to
change with future forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 619 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period.
Light/variable surface winds tonight will become northwest and
breezy/gusty by early Friday afternoon.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...TMT