289
FXUS63 KABR 182347 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
647 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low clouds and fog/drizzle will remain over the region into
  Saturday morning. Visibility may be reduced to below 1 mile at
  times tonight, especially in the Prairie Coteau/Glacial Lakes
  region.

- The next chance for rain will move in over central SD Saturday
  evening and then spread east over central and portions of
  northeastern SD Sunday into early Monday morning.

- Temperatures will remain below seasonal normals the next
  several days before returning to near normal readings the
  latter half of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 634 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Aviation discussion updated below for the 00Z TAFs. Had
previously updated wx grids to show drizzle for the precip type
instead of rain, while also extending mention of precipitation
potential (drizzle) later into the nighttime hours. Soundings
show favorable conditions for drizzle across the eastern CWA all
the way into Saturday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 131 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

As a low pressure system moves out of southeastern SD/northeastern
NE this afternoon and evening, it will be taking the rain showers
with it. As of 1pm, these rain showers have mostly moved out of
northeastern SD, with some lingering showers for another hour or so
in the area. While there have been some stronger winds occasionally
at the surface with this low pressure, with gusts of 25 to 30 mph,
the winds aloft and at the surface have not been strong enough to
push the low cloud deck out of central and northeastern SD as the
rain has moved out. This stratus deck has been causing some misty
conditions through this morning and will continue into the afternoon
over central and northeastern SD and west central MN. The radar has
been able to pick up on these misty conditions closer to the radar
as the lower clouds have been able to be detected on the radar beam.
However, even though there are misty conditions over central SD, the
radar is not able to pick up on them because the clouds are lower
than the radar beam. There will be lower visibilities because of the
low clouds and mist, though visibilities should stay above 1 mile.

These misty conditions and low clouds should dissipate and move out
Saturday morning over central SD. Despite central SD clearing out,
northeastern SD could see these conditions worsen as fog develops
overnight into Saturday morning along the eastern edge and over the
Prairie Coteau. Visibilities in this area could get below a mile at
times. Some cooler air will be sticking around through the weekend
and into the beginning of next week, with temperatures at the
surface being around normal to about 5-10 degrees cooler than
normal. Highs will be in the 60s, with lows getting in the mid 40s
to low 50s after tonight.

An upper-level low and shortwave over the Pacific northwest will be
moving east Saturday and over SD Sunday into Monday. This shortwave
will help to push a lee of the Rockies surface trough from WY to
over western SD Saturday evening into Sunday. With ample moisture
sticking around the state through the weekend, the lifting from this
surface trough will be able to develop some rain showers. These rain
showers will stay out of central SD through most of the day Saturday
as they sit in western SD until Saturday evening when some scattered
showers start to move over areas west of the Missouri River. These
showers will slowly spread east over the rest of central SD
overnight into Sunday morning and then over portions of northeastern
SD Sunday afternoon. These rain showers then look to move out of
central and northeastern SD late Sunday night/early Monday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 634 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Low clouds, fog, and drizzle will remain in place across the
region through much of the TAF period. CIGs are a mix of
MVFR/IFR at 00Z this evening, but are forecast to become
predominately IFR during the overnight into Saturday morning.
Areas of FG/BR and -DZ/DZ will also be across the region, with
VSBY dropping to MVFR/IFR at times. KATY stands the best chance
to see IFR/LIFR VSBY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...TMT