534
FXUS63 KABR 111151 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
651 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal high temperatures in the 80s today. A sharp
  cooldown is expected Saturday through early next week with
  highs in the 60s to low 70s. These temperatures are about 5 to
  10 degrees below normal.

- A Red Flag Warning is in effect for parts of south central
  South Dakota. A combination of dry fuels, wind gusts up to 40
  miles per hour, and afternoon humidity around 20 percent will
  create critical fire weather conditions. Grassland Fire
  Danger will reach High for all counties west of Brown and
  Spink Counties and Very High west of the Missouri River.

- There is a Slight (Level 2 of 5) to Marginal (Level 1 of 5)
  risk for severe storms late this afternoon into this evening
  over northeastern South Dakota and western Minnesota. Main
  severe threats include hail up to 2 inches in diameter and
  wind gusts of 60 to 75 miles per hour. A tornado cannot be
  ruled out either.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 649 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 12Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 211 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

A cold front is set to pass through the region this afternoon,
turning winds to the northwest. Under the cold air advection regime,
wind gusts may reach as high as 40 miles per hour, with perhaps a
stray gust up to 45 miles per hour. Confidence on gusts reaching 45
miles per hour (Wind Advisory criteria) is somewhat low at this
point. HREF and REFS both do not give much credence to the
possibility (