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Forecast Discussion for Aberdeen, SD
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405 FXUS63 KABR 220817 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 317 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday Afternoon) Issued at 317 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019 Sfc high pressure will build over the region today bringing mostly sunny skies. However, the upper trough over the Dakotas will have ample shortwave activity associated with it. Instability during the afternoon will help to create some diurnal cu. Only the HRRR shows any shower development with these cu, so left out any mention of precip for the moment. Temperatures under the upper trough will only top out near 70. Clear skies and light winds tonight will see temps fall into the 40s. Upper ridging will build in on Monday pushing temps back up into the upper 70s. .LONG TERM...(Monday Evening through Saturday) Issued at 317 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019 Dry weather should continue through the day Tuesday. This will be when a weak cold front pushes west to east across the area, stretching from the parent low over far northern Manitoba/western Hudson Bay. It should be to our east by the evening hours. With most of the moisture to our north, with the enhanced energy from both the surface low and broad 500mb trough, it will be difficult to have more than slight chance pops. The main change for Wednesday will be slightly cooler temperatures, with highs in the 60s. A brief 500mb ridge will slide overhead Thursday morning, before the 500mb low over the southwestern states slides across CO/NM and into the main trough encompassing the western two-thirds of the country Thursday night. The surface pattern will be quickly evolving Thursday night, with a northern low over Manitoba or ND, and another low over eastern CO/western KS. We will be in between the 2, with a cold front likely swinging across the cwa Thursday night into Friday morning. Even much of the thunderstorms activity should remain tethered closer to the southern low (MUCAPE values briefly jump to around 500J/kg around 06Z Friday over our SE counties). High pressure should quickly build in from the northwest Friday afternoon into Saturday. We won`t be able to completely get rid of the chance of showers though, as sizable 500mb trough sets up shop over the western U.S., with southwesterly flow remaining across the Northern and Central Plains through the end of September and into early October. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night) Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019 VFR skies/vsbys are expected through Sunday. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Wise LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...Wise
Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS Aberdeen, SD (ABR) Office Forecast Discussions.
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