422
FXUS63 KABR 291726 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1226 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High temperatures today will be in the upper 90s to low 100s over
central and north central South Dakota. Heat index values up to 102
will be possible. A Heat Advisory is in effect from 12 PM CDT
through 8 PM CDT today for that area.

- Western wildfire smoke may impact visibility at times across the
region through this evening. Smoke may drop air quality to the point
of impacting those sensitive to smoke.

- A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather is in place over
parts north central South Dakota west of the Missouri River this
evening. Wind gusts of 60 miles per hour will be the main severe
threat.

- A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather is in place
Thursday. The main hazard will be wind gusts of 60 mph and hail of
one inch in diameter.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Updated discussion for the 18Z TAFs below.

UPDATE Issued at 1011 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Have added Spink and Faulk Counties to the Heat Advisory that is
in effect until 8pm as heat indices could top out at 103.
Current temperatures range in the lower 80s with dewpoints quite
muggy out there overall in the upper 60s to the mid 70s, highest
James Valley and eastward with the help of peak
evapotranspiration and south to southeast winds. Visibilities
are improving over the James Valley with KABR up to 7SM and KATY
at KATY. Patchy smoke will continue today through Thursday
morning before lifting a bit north. However, smoke aloft does
continue which will create the ongoing hazy sky. Still expecting
showers and thunderstorms to fire up over north central SD late
tonight/overnight with widespread showers and thunderstorms
affecting much of the CWA for Thursday. Forecast remains on
track.

UPDATE Issued at 620 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

UPDATE for AVIATION discussion

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Main forecast focus today is the continuation of abnormal heat
thanks to a broad upper-level ridge allowing a warm airmass into the
region. Over central and north central South Dakota specifically,
heat index values will top out over 100 degrees this afternoon, and
Heat Risk will reach the Major category in some places. With these
factors in mind, a Heat Advisory has been issued for this afternoon
over central and north central South Dakota. Admittedly parts of the
area under the advisory are a bit borderline and/or spotty for
reaching Heat Advisory criteria of 100 degree apparent temperatures.
One potential failure point for temperatures today will be the
addition of smoke across the region originating from wildfires in
the Pacific Northwest. Smoke is mainly expected to remain aloft
(still having an impact on temperatures), although some near-surface
smoke remains possible. Concentrations at the surface may cause some
minor visibility  reductions and push air quality up to Moderate
levels (which corresponds to Air Quality Index values of 50-100).
This level of air quality means that mainly those sensitive to smoke
will be impacted.

Beginning this evening into tonight, a severe weather threat will
emerge over parts of north central South Dakota, mainly west of the
Missouri River. The latest high-resolution guidance keeps most of
the storms to the west until the late evening to early overnight
hours. By the time storms reach the Aberdeen CWA, they will
encounter an environment that will not be particularly supportive of
storms. A lack of strong shear (018-033>037-045-048-051.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MMM
DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...MMM