986
FXUS63 KABR 201937
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
137 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow expected to exit by this evening. Accumulations of up
to 1 inch will be possible.

- Another round of light accumulating snow moves in on Wednesday
with generally less than an inch expected.

- Gusty northwest winds develop on Wednesday ranging from 35-50 mph
with the strongest winds expected across central South Dakota.
Blowing snow and reduced visibilities are expected, especially in
falling snow. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued.

- Very cold temperatures and dangerous wind chills expected Thursday
through Sunday morning. The coldest period will be Friday with wind
chills Friday morning ranging in the thirties to forties below zero.
Actual high temperatures for Friday are forecast to range from zero
to the teens below zero. An Extreme Cold Watch is in effect for
Thursday evening through Friday afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 136 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

Light snow continues to slide southeast through the region this
afternoon with the shortwave trough. The next round moves in
Wednesday morning, generally following the same track. The big
difference will be the winds. Northwest winds will mix down from the
100kt jet with around 55kt at 700 mb and 40 to 50 kts at 850mb. CAA
is lacking but there is drier air coming in from the west Wed
afternoon with a building sfc high. This air mass should steepen
lapse rates, though behind any snowfall. Regardless, winds gusting
to 45 mph with fresh snow from today and new snow (up to an inch) on
Wednesday will cause blowing snow and reduced visibilities. Issued a
Winter Weather Advisory for areas north of I-90 and a wind advisory
along I-90. The reduced vsby will likely be in pockets and worse in
open areas.

The deep upper trough rotates in on Thursday, digging into the
northern Plains and Great Lakes. There is significant thermal
packing with H85 temps falling into the -30s Celsius as a 1050s mb
high builds in from the northwest. Issued a Cold Weather Watch for
Thursday night into Friday morning when wind chills may fall to -35
to -45 degrees. Friday night looks marginally warmer, potentially
only meriting a cold advisory. Temperatures will rebound further by
Monday when upper ridging begins to transition in from the west. Not
in the official forecast as yet, but also can`t rule out another
light snow event Saturday in between sfc highs.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1126 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Light snow is sliding southeast through South Dakota this morning.
A mix of VFR/MVFR cigs is in place, but vsby will occasionally
fall in snow to IFR. The first round of snow ends by this evening
with another round moving in Wednesday morning with strong, gusty
west to northwest winds.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM CST Wednesday for
     SDZ006>008-011-018>023.

     Extreme Cold Watch from Thursday evening through Friday
     afternoon for SDZ004>011-016>023-036-037.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ to 3 PM CST /2
     PM MST/ Wednesday for SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-033>037-
     051.

     Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 4 PM CST Wednesday for SDZ045-048.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM CST Wednesday for
     MNZ039-046.

     Extreme Cold Watch from Thursday evening through Friday
     afternoon for MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...20