872
FXUS63 KABR 211125 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
625 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mainly dry conditions will continue through next week with
  temperatures around average for this time of year. However,
  there is a 30-60% chance for showers and thunderstorms during
  the day Sunday over central SD, and increasing to 50-70%
  Sunday night across much of central and northeastern SD.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 624 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Updated for 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 103 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

As of 1 AM CDT, temperatures across the region are in the 60s with
winds out of the north to northwest at generally less than 10 mph.
Expecting relatively quiet weather today with highs in the 80s and
some very light showers across northeastern SD this afternoon. We
remain on the downwind side of an upper level ridge today with a
potential shortwave moving across the area Saturday which may
produce some showers but CAMs aren`t super excited about it.

Our next chance for some storms will be Sunday as a low develops off
the Rockies. This has the potential to produce some thunderstorms
throughout the day starting in central SD and spreading east during
the late afternoon into the evening. In this area, models are
showing 1000-1200 J/kg MLCAPE with lapse rates around 7 C/km during
the afternoon hours. PWATs are in the 99th NAEFS percentile at 1.25
to 1.5 inches which will help storms and could lead to some heavier
rainfall from storms. SPC may add in a marginal risk for severe
storms. This low looks to move east Monday, spreading the potential
for storms into eastern SD and west central MN. Afternoon
precipitation chances return almost daily through the middle of next
work week. Temperatures through the period will be right around
normal with highs in the 80s. The HRRR smoke model is bringing some
elevated smoke to the region today with some higher concentrations
over northeast SD. This does look to remain elevated and result in
some hazy skies.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 624 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will prevail at all sites, but there are a few
items of note. First, the little bit of ground fog at KATY has
departed, but webcams continued to show very isolated fog, so
could see it briefly move into KATY over the next hour.
Second, expect 7-12kft clouds this afternoon/evening at
KATY/KABR and potentially a shower brushing the sits between
21Z-03Z today. At this time, confidence is too low to mention
(only 15% chance and would expect conditions to remain VFR).
Finally, smoke upstream in Canada will push through the area
today, leading to a potential smoke layer between 9-15kft.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SRF
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...SRF