412
FXUS63 KABR 241737 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1237 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will gradually warm during the next couple days.
  Daytime highs will increase from the from the 50s to low 60s
  today to the 60s to mid-70s on Wednesday. Temperatures return
  closer to seasonal for the end of the work week.

- Strong northerly winds return Thursday behind a cold front.
  Gusts are expected to peak at 30 to 45 miles per hour. The
  strong winds will also cause elevated fire weather concerns
  Thursday afternoon.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

The aviation discussion has been updated for the 18Z TAFS.

UPDATE Issued at 948 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

The current forecast for the rest of today remains on track with
no updates planned at this time. However, may have to adjust the
sky condition and temperatures later today if we are meeting
expectations. Do anticipate we will see more sunshine developing
this afternoon, but if clouds don`t break early enough, may have
to lower forecasted high temps a bit for today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 156 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Monitoring a front dropping into the forecast area this morning,
which will slowly pass through the area through this afternoon. Not
expecting strong cold air advection behind this front, and 850mb
temperatures will actually increase this afternoon as the upper-
level ridge over the western CONUS progresses eastward. Therefore,
the warming trend continues today, with highs in the 50s to low 60s
expected. The forecast area will continue warming Wednesday with the
continued progression of the ridge and associated height rises.
Highs in the 70s across the board that day will be well above
average, but are still about 5-10 degrees shy of daily record highs.

The upper-level ridge in place will collapse into zonal flow
Wednesday and Thursday, with a strong upper-level jet streak
expected to set up over the area. As a result, there will be chances
for precipitation development along a cold front that passes through
Wednesday night into Thursday. Model soundings indicate rain is the
most likely precipitation type, but with overnight lows near
freezing along the North Dakota/South Dakota border, freezing rain
and even snow can`t be ruled out as a possible precipitation type
just yet. Overall liquid equivalent precip totals still appear
minimal, with the latest ensemble means giving up to a tenth of an
inch at most. The means are fairly high-biased however, and the
probability for seeing a hundredth of an inch or more is set up in a
gradient across the Aberdeen CWA, ranging from 50% in the north to
10% over central South Dakota. This signature is fairly consistent
with previous forecast cycles.

The main forecast concern will be the post-frontal winds and wind
gusts moving into the area Thursday. Northerly winds will provide
multiple rounds of strong cold air advection into the region coming
early Thursday morning and again Thursday afternoon. As a result,
temperatures Thursday are expected to be non-diurnal and will drop
to near-normal for late March. Under northerly cold air advection
regimes, the NBM has a tendency to under-forecast wind speeds, so
hedging a bit further toward the 90th percentile with this latest
forecast. Probability to reach Wind Advisory criteria (gusts of 45
miles per hour) remains at about 10-20 percent across the board, but
again those numbers are likely underdone and a Wind Advisory may be
necessary for this event. At the moment it looks like the area will
fall short of High Wind Warning criteria (58 miles per hour), with
probabilities currently sitting at 0%. Still, with such strong cold
air advection nothing can be quite ruled out at this point, and
trends will continue to be monitored closely moving forward. No
headlines have been issued with this forecast package. These winds
will also trigger some elevated fire weather concerns, mainly over
central South Dakota where the Grassland Fire Danger Index reaches
the Very High category. The saving grace will be that afternoon
humidity remains in the 35 to 45 percent range, keeping the area out
of Red Flag Warning criteria.

Zonal flow aloft will transition to an upper-level ridge once again
residing over the western CONUS. This will allow for a warm, dry
airmass to return to the Northern Plains, bringing above normal
temperatures and minimal chances for precip through the weekend.
Expect highs roughly 10-15 degrees above normal through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will persist at all terminals through this TAF
cycle. Mid to high level cloudiness will continue to shift across
the region the remainder of today and into tonight and Wednesday.
Should finally start to see a thinning of these clouds toward the
end of this forecast period. Winds will become more southeasterly
by the end of today into tonight before turning more southwest to
northwest toward the end of this current TAF valid period.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Vipond
DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...Vipond