633
FXUS63 KABR 150519 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1219 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A dangerous and prolonged heat wave will continue through this
  week with temperatures and heat index values warming into the
  mid/upper 90s or even triple digits each afternoon.

- A Heat Advisory remains in effect for north central, central,
  and portions of northeastern SD and west central MN through
  Thursday.

- Elevated fire weather concerns are possible Wednesday
  afternoon and evening mainly along and west of the Missouri
  River due to the combination of low relative humidity, gusty
  winds of 20 to 30 mph, and drying fuels.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Updated forecast for the 06Z TAFs below.

UPDATE Issued at 907 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

No changes needed to the forecast for the overnight hours. Light
southerly breezes will be maintained under clear skies as
temperatures drop into the upper 60s to low 70s for most
locations by sunrise.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

While heights aloft barely budge until Sunday, the sfc pattern
becomes more transient as a series of weak troughs/fronts move
through starting on Thursday. Until then, the region is in a holding
pattern as sfc low pressure sits over the Rockies and southerly
winds continue to draw up heat. Temperatures and heat indices in the
90s to low 100s are still expected through Saturday. Blended in a
little BCConsAll and ConsShort for Ts and Tds to offset the NBM
high/low bias, accordingly. Caa creeps in across the northeast
Friday night with a brief compression of the ridge. A stronger upper
trough collapses the ridge Sunday night, though long range NBM holds
the 90s intact until Tuesday when highs fall into the 80s.

ConsShort is less impressed with wind potential on Wednesday than
the NBM. Lowering the temps a couple of degrees also keeps RH above
20 percent. However, elevated fire concerns with southeast winds
gusting to 25 mph are still probable west river. Not adding any
headlines at this time. The forecast remains mostly dry even in the
long range with chances for showers below 20 percent and no QPF.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. Winds will
remain out of the south and southeast with gusts up to 20 to 25
kts this afternoon over KMBG/KPIR, diminishing this evening.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ Thursday for
     SDZ003>011-015>018-021-033>037-045-048-051.
MN...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT Thursday for MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MMM
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...MMM