762
FXUS63 KABR 160539 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1139 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wind Advisory, High Wind Warning, and Winter Weather Advisory
  headlines are in place for tonight through the daytime Friday.

- Winds out of the northwest will increase and remain strong
  through the day Friday. Gusts 45 to 65 mph are expected across
  central to northeastern South Dakota, strongest over central
  South Dakota from mid morning Friday through the rest of the
  daytime hours.

- Storm total snow of a dusting to 1-3 inches is expected tonight
  through Friday. The strong winds and snow will result in
  intermittent white-out conditions.

- Strong winds return Sunday, when gusts behind a cold front may
  reach up to 45 mph west of the James River Valley.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1132 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Aviation discussion updated below for the 06Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 848 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Watching areas of moderate snow showers moving southeast across
the region, with periodic visibility reductions noted in KATY
around 3/4SM. There was even some lightning flashes and strikes
northwest of Ashely, ND earlier this evening. Moved up the start
time of the Winter Weather Advisory for some counties/segments
based on activity already entering the region. Otherwise, wind
speeds lining pretty well with current Wind Advisory placement
over central SD. Had a brief period of 55-65+ mph gusts in the
KPIR area and in other portions of central SD, but those have
since subsided. For now, no changes planned to wind headline
timing, with the upgrade to High Wind Warning set to begin at 06Z
across central SD. Also made some adjustments to PoPs based on
radar trends and went with coverage wording and changed precip
type to shower instead of stratiform. Although, activity upstream
across ND looks a bit more widespread light snow with embedded
moderate snow showers. Will continue to monitor trends through the
evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 318 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

High to very high grassland fire danger index values remain mainly
west of the Prairie Coteau for the rest of this afternoon. Clouds
are now moving overhead with winds out of the northwest gusting 25-
40mph, strongest over central SD. A few localized higher
winds gusting to near 45mph have been noted over central SD.

Temperatures are mainly in the 40s, with a few 50 degree readings
over south central. The surface trough has now shifted east of our
counties, into MN. The primary cold front currently set up west to
east over southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba will continue to sink
south as the 990mb low over northeastern MT moves across western
Lake Superior Friday morning. Our main push of stronger winds and
more steady snow will be with and behind the cold front. 850mb
temperatures of around 0 to +2C at 21Z will fall to an average -5C
by 03Z, with the more significant cold air advection coming in by
09Z with -7 to -12C. Surface temperatures will fall into the 20s
overnight. Any light rain this evening may quickly freeze, resulting
in slippery roads. The thin northwest to southeastern convective
bands nature to the snow behind the cold front and through the
daytime hours Friday will lead to intermittent white-out or near
blizzard conditions that quickly end as the snow ends. Areas that
stay in a persistent bands will not only experience prolonged
reductions in visibility, but snow to liquid ratios of 15-18:1 will
result in quick snowfall accumulations (that will be blowing around
in the strong winds). Exact snowfall accumulations will be difficult
to measure. Storm total snow amounts through Friday will range from
a dusting to 1 to 3 inches, with the highest amounts over the
Prairie Coteau of northeastern South Dakota. A Winter Weather
Advisory has been issued to incorporate not only the snow, but the
strong winds near or at Wind Advisory levels over eastern SD. Strong
winds out of the northwest gusting 35 to 50 mph will increase
overnight and shift a little more out of the north-northwest, with
the strongest winds gusting up to 65 mph over central South Dakota
during the day Friday. Wind gusts are expected to stay below 45mph
across west central Minnesota through this event.

Temperatures will continue to fall into the single digits to teens
by the end of the day Friday, and into the single digits below zero
by Saturday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 318 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

The long term starts Saturday morning with an upper level trough
over the Dakotas and the center of the low off to our east. The NAM
has the center much farther east - over the Great Lakes region,
while the EC, GFS, and Canadian models have the center of the low
over IA. This low continues to move east through the day but we will
remain in northwesterly to northerly winds as another trough moves
across the area from a low moving across southern Canada for Sunday.
The upper level pattern is relatively quiet for a few days after
this before the EC shows a shortwave move across the region
Wednesday.

With the trough Sunday, we have another chance for some snow, PoPs
around 20 to 30% mainly over the Prairie Coteau/Sisseton Hills area.
This looks to be some light snow with the chance of more than an
inch around or less than 15%. Blowing snow may become an issue where
snow is falling or has recently fallen as wind gusts look to
increase to 35-40 mph. Snow squalls may also be possible again,
bringing a chance for some heavier snow and greater reduced
visibility at times. The shortwave on Wednesday doesn`t look to
bring any precipitation with it at this time.

Temperatures during the period are looking to be much closer to
normal than the last couple weeks with highs mainly in the 20s to
30s with a few colder days (highs in the single digits to teens
above zero or 10-15 degrees below average). Sunday looks to be the
last windy day of the period. Wind chills Saturday morning are
expected to be the coldest of the period in the -20 to -30 degree
range. This will cover most, if not the entire forecast area. Monday
morning also looks to be fairly chilly with wind chills in the teens
to about 20 degrees below zero.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1132 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Areas of -SN/SN will move southeast across the region through the
TAF period, with MVFR/IFR VSBY. CIGs are forecast to generally
remain MVFR tonight through Friday. Strong northwest surface winds
will continue to gust between 35 and 55 knots through much of the
TAF period, with the strongest gusts expected across central SD
affecting KPIR/KMBG.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Friday for SDZ007-008-011-
     019>023.

     Wind Advisory until midnight CST /11 PM MST/ tonight for
     SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-033>037-045-048-051.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ Friday for
     SDZ003>006-009-010-015>018-033>037-045-048-051.

     High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ Friday for
     SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-033>037-045-048-051.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Friday for MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...TMT