530
FXUS63 KABR 030205 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
805 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal high temperatures will continue through the week.
  Wednesday and Thursday will be the warmest, around 20 degrees
  above normal, with highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

- There is a 40% chance of light rain late Thursday night,
  transitioning to a wintry mix of rain, snow, or freezing rain
  Friday into Friday evening. The chance of 1" of snow or more is
  limited to 15% or less. The highest chance of freezing rain will
  be over and east of the Prairie Coteau.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 802 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Very light rain/sprinkles now confined to just the southeast CWA
and have lingering low PoPs in the grids to reflect this
potential. Main issue for the overnight will be monitoring
development of low clouds and fog which models are still
suggesting late tonight towards 12Z Tuesday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 151 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

At 19Z a 1004mb surface low was set up across eastern CO, with our
area in between the low and the dominating high across the
northeastern U.S. The area of low pressure to our southwest will
extend a weak trough across our forecast area through early Tuesday,
before sinking south as the surface low moves across OK/KS and a
ridge builds in from Canada and ND resulting in light winds. Plenty
of low level moisture will be in place tonight, with patchy for
brining the potential for 3-5 mile visibility over portions of
northeastern SD late tonight (mainly after 09Z Tuesday).

Highs Tuesday will end up around 5F higher than what is observed
this afternoon, topping out in the 40s to low 50s. The lowest
temperatures will be across the quickly melting snow over
northeastern SD into west central MN. Forecast solutions are again
bringing overnight relative humidity recovery to near 100% Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning, hinting at the potential for patchy
fog again - mainly east of the James River.

Warm air advection will take hold Wednesday into Thursday along with
the 500mb ridge sliding overhead. Highs both days in the 50s and
60s. The increased cloud cover Thursday will likely be offset by the
limited or lack of snow with respect to holding down temperatures.
850mb temperatures will range from around -5 to -12C by the end of
the day Wednesday through Thursday.

We`ll be monitoring the track and strength of the surface low to our
west moving to western KS by 12Z Friday. Cold Friday air moving in
Friday into Friday evening will result in the rain changing to a
wintry mix of rain, snow, or freezing rain. Confidence is low on the
timing, precipitation type, and specific precipitation amounts at
this time. Stay up to date on the latest forecast for late Thursday
night into Friday evening. Given the very warm day Thursday, expect
any wintry mix to mainly be over grassy surfaces. Rain (30% chance
of precipitation) looks to dominate Thursday night before turning
into a wintry mix and transitioning to snow on the back side of the
surface low as it quickly moves across IA/southern MN by 06Z
Saturday. The precipitation amounts have nearly doubled since our
last forecast update (from an average 0.1" to 0.2" - lowest over
north central SD). Still, the overall chance of precipitation is
around 40%, maxing out Friday afternoon. The 00Z EC ensemble
guidance was snowing nearly equal chances of freezing rain, rain,
and snow for Aberdeen by 21Z Friday, and equal chances of freezing
rain or rain at Sisseton and Watertown. We`ll keep an eye of this
system, but have started to mention it in the HWO and social media.

Our forecast highs Friday and Saturday are still mainly in the 40s
(low 50s west of the MO River Saturday), before rebounding back into
the 50s for Sunday-Monday as a series of surface lows cross
southern Canada and mainly dry weather over our area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 527 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

An area of -RA over KPIR with generally VFR VSBY looks to move out
of the area around 0100-0130Z. This same area may clip KATY later
this evening, so will continue to monitor. No mention of precip in
the KATY TAF at this time. Otherwise, focus turns to MVFR/IFR CIGs
which are forecast to develop/spread over the region towards early
morning Tuesday. Also seeing indications of FG/BR with MVFR/IFR
VSBY across the region and have inserted mention of this into the
TAFs.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
DISCUSSION...06
AVIATION...TMT