317
FXUS63 KABR 051728
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1228 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 30% chance of mainly light snow late tonight through
the day Monday over portions of central to south central SD.

- Below normal temperatures will continue through Tuesday. Monday
will be the coldest day, with highs mainly in the 30s.

- There is a 30-50% chance of light rain Wednesday morning, mainly
north of highway 12. The highest chance of measurable rain will be,
where there is a 35% chance of 0.10" or higher.

- Winds gusting 30 to 40 mph are expect during the day Tuesday (out
of a southerly direction) and during the day Wednesday (out of a
west to northwesterly direction). The strongest winds with gusts
nearing 45 mph are expected Wednesday across north central SD, west
of the MO River.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Snow continue to quickly erode today, much like Saturday afternoon
and evening. We have a 988mb low over Quebec, with a trough
extending west-southwest through southern Ontario, northern MN,
along with the eastern Dakotas. A punch of cold air on increasing
winds out of the north will continue to be the trend this afternoon,
with 850mb temperatures dropping from 0 to +4C this morning to -4 to
+4C. The coldest air will remain over far northeastern SD and west
central MN. A 1042mb high was set up over northwestern Canada.

While light precipitation will still remain possible over mainly
west central MN into this evening, little to no accumulation is
expected. The surface ridge extending from the large Canadian high
will move in behind the cold front this afternoon through Monday
night. Persistent low pressure will be organizing across the
Rockies. Another round of light precipitation will be possible after
06Z over our southwestern counties into early Monday afternoon along
the temperature gradient - between the nearing high and organizing
low. The dry subcloud layer should limit precipitation chances
initially. Precipitation may end up over the same location for 5-
8hrs, which is something to watch. Light snow or flurries will be
the primary precipitation type, with accumulations expected to be 1"
or less (less than a 10% chance of greater than 1" of snow).
However, if intensity increases and the snow sets up over the same
location, higher amounts will be possible.

The surface high will reside over MN and northeastern SD by 06Z
Tuesday and exit across the Upper Great Lakes during the day
Tuesday. A tightening pressure gradient will develop over the
Northern Plains between the exiting high and Rocky Mountain trough.
Both Tuesday and Wednesday look to be windy days, with gusts of 35-
45mph. The strongest winds will be mainly west of the MO River. The
EFI awareness table indicates the potential for wind headlines may
be needed for our northwestern counties (mainly Corson County)
Wednesday. We`ll keep monitoring the latest trends for Tuesday-
Wednesday. By 00Z Wednesday the trough to our west will be able to
move into southern Saskatchewan through the western Dakotas, with a
40-50kt low level jet set up Tuesday night. There are some
differences in timing on when the dual-low trough will move across
the states, but the consensus is to have the southern (SD) low east
of the MO River and near the James River by 12Z Wednesday, and near
the SD/MN border near 18Z Wednesday. There is a 30-50% chance of
light rain Wednesday morning. The highest chance of measurable
precipitation is over far northern SD, with a 35% chance of 0.10" or
higher north of U.S. Highway 12.

Daytime cold air advection behind the exiting southern low with
mixing near 700mb will result in strong winds through the day
Wednesday. The southern low looks to consolidate with the Canadian
low across northern ND, or Manitoba, or northern MN Wednesday
afternoon with high pressure moving overhead Thursday. At 500mb, the
trough will remain overhead through at least Friday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Winds will gust out of the northwest 20-25kts this afternoon,
before diminishing this evening. Mainly VFR conditions are
expected to continue over the next 24 hours. The main concerns
will be light snow across PIR from 13-18Z Monday which could bring
MVFR ceilings and visibility. At ATY MVFR ceilings are expected
08-14Z Monday.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...06
AVIATION...06