153
FXUS63 KABR 061756 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1156 AM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Colder today behind two passing cold fronts, although still near
  to above normal temperatures in the 20s and 30s/low 40s.

- Return to mild air this weekend through Monday with many areas
  in the 40s and 50s. 60s possible across central South Dakota on
  Sunday.

- Chances for moisture (20-40%) for the middle of next week, but
  confidence in model guidance is low. Current trends are for a
  weak system or two to move through the area.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1140 AM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

The aviation discussion has been updated for the 18Z TAFS.

UPDATE Issued at 1026 AM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

For the mid morning update, made some slight adjustments to
account for the current stratus deck that will remain entrenched
across most of the CWA today. Expecting a longer period, through
the remainder of today, of overcast skies to persist. This, along
with extending the mention of sprinkles/flurries across parts of
central and northeast SD will continue to see periodic bouts of
this light precip through the afternoon. The only other thing to
keep an eye on through the rest of today will be the colder air
intrusion into our eastern zones during the course of the
afternoon hours. Those areas are still expecting to see falling
temperatures into the upper teens to low 20s by late afternoon and
early evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 341 AM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

Two separate cold front dropping south across the area this morning.
First front already moved south of the area with breezy/gusty
northwest winds from 25 to 40 mph over the past few hours.
Reinforcing cold front drops south/southwest through the eastern CWA
later this morning, dropping 925mb temps as cold as -12C over far
eastern areas. Temperatures today look to be steady or more likely
slowly falling across the eastern CWA. Also watching a stratus deck
moving southward across the CWA with the arrival of colder air. Made
some adjustments to sky cover to speed up the onset of cloudy
conditions from north to south. There may be some breaks across
eastern portions of the CWA today based on various low-level cloud
cover products and sounding profiles. Cannot rule out a few
flurries/sprinkles within the lower-level moisture, so will leave
mention of this in the grids/forecast through the early morning
hours.

Surface high pressure glances the region tonight, more so moving
towards the Great Lakes into the day Saturday. This will allow for a
quick return to southerly low-level flow tonight through Saturday.
Will see an uptick in southerly winds on Saturday with gusts
generally from 25 to 35 mph. Low-level warm air advection gets going
again too on Saturday, with 925mb temps rising back above zero C
across the CWA. Warmest of air will reside across central SD
Saturday afternoon as 925mb temps rise closer to +10C. Forecast
highs on Saturday rebound back into the 30s and 40s for many areas,
with areas along and west of the Missouri River likely getting into
the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 341 AM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

An upper-level ridge will continue to stay over SD through Monday,
with a warm front pushing the warm temperatures back in again
Saturday night. Temperatures will warm back up to be 15-25 degrees
warmer than normal for this time of the year, with the warmest
temperatures occurring in south central SD. A high surface pressure
moves into SD behind the warm front Sunday into Monday, which will
help to keep precipitation out of central and northeastern SD during
that time.

The models forecast a surface low pressure moving from MT into WY
during the day Monday and then SD Monday afternoon/evening. On the
northern side of the low, precipitation develops and moves over
central and northeastern SD through Tuesday. The models vary the
location and timing of both the low and precipitation, which lowers
the confidence on the chance for precipitation occurring. The
models also vary on another round of precipitation potentially
moving in over mainly southern SD along the edge of a high to the
north and the low pressure that moves out to the south Tuesday
night into Wednesday and Thursday.

Cold air starts moving in with the surface low pressure Monday
night, which will help cause different precipitation types and
changes to occur through Thursday. The ECMWF p-type charts show rain
and a rain/snow mix starting before transition to snow then maybe
back to a mix. There are some members of the ECMWF that also show
freezing drizzle/rain or sleet occurring. The cold air moving in
will also cause temperatures to cool at the surface, though the max
temperatures will still be 10-15 degrees warmer than normal and
above freezing. This also adds some complication to the confidence
of precipitation types in the forecast. With the lower confidence
from model variability, the precipitation type and timing will need
to have an eye kept on it in upcoming model runs to see if models
come to more of an agreement.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1140 AM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

MVFR cigs will persist at all terminals this afternoon, with the
exception of KATY where low end VFR cigs are expected. VFR
conditions will return as early as late this afternoon or early
evening for KPIR/KMBG and remain there the rest of this TAF cycle.
KABR won`t see VFR conditions returning until the early morning
hours on Saturday. KATY may flirt with high end sub-VFR cigs
overnight before returning to VFR status by mid morning Saturday.
North to northeast winds will switch to the southeast by mid to
late evening at KPIR/KMBG and early Saturday morning at KABR/KATY.
By late in this forecast period, gusty winds of 15-25 knots will
be possible.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Vipond
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...Vipond