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Forecast Discussion for Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 250850
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
350 AM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021

An expansive area of mid level cloudiness should remain over the
region through the mid morning hours, and perhaps longer. Went
pessimistic with sky cover for today, keeping an overcast, to at
least a partly cloudy sky all day. An approaching low pressure
system from the west will bring increasing southeasterly winds to
much of the CWA today. Sustained winds of 20 to 25 mph will be
possible for areas west of the James River Valley. Buffer soundings
suggest peak gusts of 35 to 40 knots for the Mo valley this
afternoon through this evening. A wind advisory may be need for
Corson and Dewey county where NBM 90 percent shows guts of +35
knots. The winds will become southerly tonight, with 40 knot winds
at half km off the RAP model. The gusty winds will keep overnight
lows fairly mild with temperatures mainly in the 40s. A surface
trough moving into the the western Dakotas on Tuesday will push
the strong winds eastward, impacting the James River valley and
points east. Buffer soundings suggest slightly better mixing
winds, especially for the higher terrain areas of the Prairie
Coteau. Both the NAM and GFS show 50 to 55 knot at 850 mb Tuesday
afternoon, and while mixing winds will not be that high, peak
gusts of 40 to 45 knots will be possible. Showers will move into
north central areas during the afternoon hours on Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021

When the period opens, there is a rather large, elongated upper
level longwave trof entering the nation`s mid-section, including
some notable PVA/forcing over this CWA Tuesday night through
Wednesday. P-type, at this time, is all rain with this event. Plenty
of warm-enough low to mid-level air in the column Tuesday night and
Wednesday.

Thursday and Friday still look like dry and mild days. But,
consensus seems to be settling down now on a strong cold frontal
passage by the end of the day on Saturday, signaling the start of a
several day period of below normal cold weather conditions heading
into the beginning of November.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected at ABR and ATY through tonight and
Monday. IFR/MVFR conditions at PIR and MBG will become VFR on Monday
morning and remain through the rest of the day. Also, with a
tightening surface pressure gradient and deeper mixing, all airports
will have an increase in southeast winds on Monday to 15 to 25
knots. MBG and PIR will be the strongest in the afternoon with
gusts up to 30 knots at times.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...Dorn
AVIATION...SD

Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS Aberdeen, SD (ABR) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

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