818
FXUS63 KABR 110630
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1230 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-There is a 15-20% chance for precipitation Wednesday night over far
south central SD. Light rain with no accumulation expected, though
there is lower confidence in precipitation type.

- Above normal temperatures, 15-20 degrees warmer than normal, will
continue into the weekend before getting up to 20-25 degrees warmer
than normal this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1230 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Surface high pressure will be moving out of SD today, which helps to
keep precipitation out of central and northeastern SD. As this high
pressure is moving out, a low surface pressure is developing and
moving over WY tonight into Wednesday. Models have consistently
shifted this low`s path to the south over the past couple of days,
with it moving into far southwestern SD then to the southeast
through NE Wednesday night into Thursday. This shift also causes the
precipitation to shift south as well, majorly reducing the chances
of precipitation Wednesday night into Thursday for central and
northeastern SD. Currently, there is a 15-20% chance for
precipitation Wednesday night in south central SD before the low
moves to far to the south to affect the area. Models show above
freezing air aloft and at the surface when precipitation chances
occur, which is leading to light rain being forecast. However, there
is some lower confidence in precipitation type as other models have
some slightly cooler temperatures at the surface. QPF amounts have
decreased as well, with ensembles having only a 5-10% chance for
0.01 inch or more QPF in south central and east central SD, which
the models continue to shift to the south.

The low does help to move some warmer air into central and
northeastern SD, causing temperatures to be 15-20 degrees warmer
than normal into the weekend. High surface pressure moves in over SD
Thursday evening into Friday as well as dry air aloft. These two
combine to help keep precipitation from developing or moving over
central and northeastern SD as well as keeping clear and sunny skies
around.

Saturday, the models show an upper-level trough to the south of SD
move east, which helps to push a surface trough over the state. With
dry air aloft, the models do not forecast precipitation developing.
The trough looks to mainly cause a shift in the wind Saturday, from
south to from the west, back to from the south but early Sunday
morning. Some warm air also moves in behind the trough Saturday
evening into Sunday, which causes surface temperatures to rise.
Currently, models are showing temperatures 20-25 degrees warmer than
normal over all of central and northeastern SD through the weekend
before warming even more into Monday, 20-30 degrees warmer than
normal. An eye will need to be kept on the models for this trough
over the next couple days to watch its potential for precipitation
and how warm temperatures will actually get.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1130 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will prevail through the end of the TAF period. High
pressure that is currently overhead will slowly drift off towards
the southeast through Wednesday. Winds will remain light out of the
south/southwest, before switching southeasterly by Wednesday
evening. Light rain showers are possible Wednesday evening over
southeastern SD, and should stay south of KATY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...TMT/MMM