692
FXUS63 KABR 240529 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1229 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Southerly winds gusting between 30-40 mph are in place today, with
the strongest winds located over northeastern South Dakota. Strong
winds will continue over that area through this evening and into
tonight.

- A cold front will move through the region tonight through early
Saturday morning. Winds behind will turn northwesterly and increase,
with gusts up to 50 miles per hour possible over parts of central
and north central South Dakota. A Wind Advisory is in effect for
that area from late tonight through Saturday morning.

- Widespread rain is expected to move into the region beginning
Sunday and continuing into Tuesday. Chances to see a quarter of an
inch of rain through that period range from 30% along the ND/SD
border to 80% over south central SD.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Updated forecast for the 06Z TAFs below.

UPDATE Issued at 853 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Mid-level lift noted on satellite (accas cloud development)
across south central SD into NE. Starting to see a few sprinkles
or light showers developing on KUNR radar moving northeast. HRRR
runs the past several hours have been showing development of
scattered showers into the overnight hours over the southwest
CWA stretching up towards KABR. Made some adjustments to PoPs to
expand areal coverage of slight chance (20%) across that area.
Otherwise, still seeing gusty southerly winds across the eastern
CWA from 30 to 40 mph. Further west, awaiting arrival of a cold
front which will move into the western CWA later tonight with
strong northwest winds developing. No changes to the Wind
Advisory out west at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Widespread southerly wind gusts of 30 to 40 miles per hour are in
place this afternoon, with the strongest located over parts of
northeastern South Dakota and western Minnesota. These winds are
expected to persist through the afternoon before slowly diminishing
this evening. The strong winds combine with abnormally warm
temperatures (highs in the 70s to 80, approaching daily records) to
create widespread elevated fire weather concerns this afternoon.
High Grassland Fire Danger is in place across the entire forecast
area, with some pockets of Very High Grassland Fire Danger over the
parts of northeastern South Dakota where winds are expected to be
the strongest.

A low pressure center to the north will drag a cold front across the
forecast area early Saturday. Along this front, the next round of
showers to weak thunderstorms will develop. Central South Dakota may
see these showers during the early morning hours before the rain
chances transition to northeastern South Dakota and western
Minnesota after sunrise. Rain rates are generally expected to be
light, and only a couple hundredths of accumulation at most are
expected.

Post-frontal winds turn from southerly to northwesterly and increase
overnight tonight and into early Saturday morning. Under the strong
cold air advection regime, gusts upwards of 45 miles per hour (Wind
Advisory criteria) will be possible over parts of central and north
central South Dakota. There is somewhat of a sharp difference in
terms of guidance on this issue. The HREF and REFS seem to be less
than impressed by the setup, and show only a patchy 10-30% chance
for wind gusts to reach 45 miles per hour or better. The NBM on the
other hand, shows a fairly widespread 30-60% chance over that same
area. Have decided to err on the side of caution given the strength
of the cold air advection behind the front, and a Wind Advisory is
in effect late tonight into Saturday morning. Winds are expected to
decrease through the day, which is why the Advisory will expire at
15Z Saturday morning. During that same time frame, there is some
potential for strong downslope winds along the eastern edge of the
Prairie Coteau out ahead of the front. Localized gusts may top out
upwards of 40 miles per hour, but confidence is a bit lower in that
area, and therefore no advisory has been issued for that area at
this time.

Temperatures behind the cold front are set to cool back down closer
to normal. 850mb temperatures drop about 15 degrees Celsius behind
the front, settling in the +2-5 degree range. These values are just
below the median for this time of the year. As a result, expect near-
normal highs in the upper 40s to 50s for the foreseeable future.

An upper-level low will move up into the region, bringing the next
chances for precipitation beginning on Sunday. Latest NBM
probabilities indicate that the chances of seeing a quarter of an
inch through Tuesday morning ranges from 30-80%, increasing from
north to south. There is also some indication that overnight lows
(as well as temperatures through the whole profile) being sub-
freezing may support some flurries over parts of north central
and/or northeastern South Dakota. However, no snowfall accumulation
would be expected out of any snow that does manage to reach the
surface. The presence of cloud cover may also limit radiational
cooling through the night, keeping temperatures on the warmer side,
which would be enough to shut down the prospective flurries.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR cigs are still forecast through the TAF period. Currently
low level wind shear continues to affect KABR/KATY with the
threat diminishing the closer we get to 12Z as this LLWS shifts
more eastward into MN. Otherwise the cold front is currently
draped along and just east of the Missouri River with winds at
all TAF sites in southerly flow, with more southwesterly flow
right ahead of the front at KMBG. As this front track eastward
this morning, winds will shift out of the west then northwest
behind it. The fropa is expected to be along the SD/MN border by
12Z. Post frontal winds will be gustiest across KPIR/KMBG,
which are forecast to range from 25 to 35kts with gusts
potentially up to 40kts at times across central SD. Winds will
diminish west to east across the region later on this afternoon
and evening. Will also be watching -SHRA potential through
Saturday morning, with best chances over KATY region where
PROB30 was inserted. There is some potential these showers to
develop as far west as KPIR/KABR, but low confidence as of now
so no mention of
-SHRA at these sites. Will amend if needed.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Advisory until 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning for
     SDZ003-015-033-045.
     Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 10 AM CDT this morning for SDZ004-
     005-009-010-016-034-035-048.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MMM
DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...MMM