360
FXUS63 KABR 291722 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1222 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The Northern Plains will see an active pattern, and chances
  for showers and thunderstorms are in place through the
  weekend and into at least the start of next week.

- Through early Sunday morning, chances of a quarter of an inch
  of rain range from 10-20% over northeastern South Dakota and
  western Minnesota, increasing to 70-80% over central South
  Dakota.

- There is a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe weather
  Saturday evening and Saturday night across central and parts
  of north central South Dakota. Jones County, as well as parts
  of Lyman and Stanley Counties reach a Slight Risk (Level 2 of
  5). Damaging wind and hail of one inch in diameter are the
  main threats.

- There is a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe weather
  Sunday, mainly along and west of the James River Valley.
  Damaging wind and hail of one inch in diameter are the main
  threats.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Updated discussion for the 18Z TAFs below.

UPDATE Issued at 1018 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026

As of 10am, temperatures range in the upper 60s to the mid 80s
with the warmest temps over far northeastern SD into west
central MN as these locations are more under the ridge and less
cloud cover. Satellite indicates broken to overcast skies west
of here as radar indicates light rain showers and/or sprinkles
mainly between the Mo and James River as winds at 850mb to
surface are from the southeast with ongoing moisture surging
north/northwestward from the Gulf with dewpoints in the upper
50s to the lower 60s. Forecast remains on track for the rest of
the day as we will continue with this moisture surge into the
CWA. Along with daytime heating, scattered on again off again
light rain and isolated weak thunderstorms are possible across
the CWA. With lack of CAPE, shear, and weak lapse rates, no
severe weather is anticipated.

UPDATE Issued at 636 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 12Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Broad upper-level ridge that has previously allowed such warm
temperatures to take hold will finally begin to progress to the
east. An upper-level trough to the west will begin to exert
influence over the region for the next few days, and the
corresponding height falls will drop highs to be in the low to mid
80s (still about 5-10 degrees above normal for this time of year).
Near-surface to low-level pressure gradient is also expected to
increase today, leading to a southerly low-level jet over the
region. During the afternoon, gusts from the jet will mix to the
surface, topping out around 30-40 miles per hour. Strongest winds
are expected along and west of the Missouri River, particularly over
north central South Dakota. As the low-level jet progresses eastward
on Saturday, expect more widespread windy conditions during the
afternoon, with gusts once again reaching 30-40 miles per hour.

Showers arrive this morning along the low-level jet, moving up into
the region from the south. Coverage is generally expected to be
spotty through the day today, with precipitation rates remaining
fairly light. Most of the forecast area (with the exception of far
northeastern South Dakota into western Minnesota) has a roughly 20-
40% chance to see a tenth of an inch of rain through tonight. Rain
showers are expected to continue through the overnight period and
into Saturday as well. Some heavier rainfall in the form of
thunderstorms will move over central South Dakota Saturday, with the
potential for a quarter to half an inch to fall through Saturday
night in that area.

In terms of the severe weather potential Saturday evening, the setup
does not appear to be very impressive at the moment, but can`t rule
anything out at this time. The best chances for the severe threat
are located in south central South Dakota, where a Marginal to
Slight Risk is in place. A plume of CAPE extends up into the region,
and while the main axis and highest values remain to the south and
west, around 1000-2000 J/kg will clip the western part of the
forecast area. Shear does not appear to be very favorable, just 20-
25 knots in the area, but hail may still be a possible hazard with
700-500mb lapse rates around 6.5-7 C/km. Wind is also a possible
hazard, as DCAPE values will reach over 1000 J/kg at times. With the
weak shear likely producing short-lived storm that collapse quickly
a microburst or two may be possible, but low-level lapse rates
appear unfavorable at the moment, just 6-7 C/km. Can`t rule out
tornado potential either at the moment, as there is some indication
of the potential for an area of low-level shear of 20+ knots, LCLs
below 1000m, and 0-3km Helicity over 200 m^2/s^2 to overlap. Given
the time frame, not many high-resolution guidance is currently
available, so this assessment may shift over the next couple of
forecast cycles as the time frame comes into the time range of more
models.

An active pattern is expected to continue into next week with the
upper-level trough sitting over the western CONUS and placing the
Northern Plains in the left exit region. Therefore, support for
showers and storms will continue into next week. Nothing stands out
at this point in terms of severe weather potential, so will save the
analysis on potential threats next week for future forecasts and
discussions.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR cigs are forecast to continue at KABR/KATY before dropping
to MVFR cigs by the late morning/midday hours on Saturday.
KPIR/KMBG will consist of VFR/MVFR cigs with PIR dropping to IFR
by ~09Z or so Saturday. With ongoing south/southeasterly winds
at the surface to 850mb, this has allowed for low level moisture
to increase with this uptick in moisture continuing through the
TAF period. This results in scattered showers that will continue
to move in from the south and southeast through the rest of the
TAF period with the possibility of a thunderstorm or two late
this afternoon/evening and again Saturday afternoon. Surface
winds will increase late tonight/overnight with gusts of
25-30kts

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MMM
DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...MMM