751
FXUS63 KABR 190221 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
821 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow of 1" or less will remain possible through the
  evening hours across far northeastern SD and west central MN.

- Winds gusting 35 to 45 mph out of the northwest, along with
  locally higher gusts, will continue to slowly diminish through
  the evening hours. Winds will increase out of the north-
  northwest on Thursday, with gusts of 25-35 mph.

- The combination falling and blowing snow, along strong winds
  will continue to lead to reductions in visibility at times
  through this evening, especially in open areas across far
  northeastern SD and west central MN.

- Near to below normal temperatures will continue through this
  weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 818 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Still seeing a band of light snow across the far eastern CWA, but
with winds continuing to slowly decrease, visibility at ETH/VVV
generally staying above 2SM. Had earlier let the Winter Weather
Advisory expire as impacts from blowing snow have diminished.
Latest model trends suggest the light snow band over the far east
could persist all the way into Thursday morning, but with only
minor accumulations expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 218 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

The surface low to our northeast has moved from our far northeastern
3 counties at 10Z to near Sauk Center and Todd County, MN at 20Z.
Winds behind the low are only slowly diminishing. Winds out of
the wnw are gusting 30-45mph over much of central SD and closer to
the low over west central MN. Elsewhere winds were still gusting
40- 55mph. The axis of moderate to heavy snow that had been set up
from around and east of Eureka through Aberdeen has shifted to
east of Britton through Ortonville. Light snow remains east of
this stronger band, with the main visibility restriction being
from light falling snow and the snow that has already fallen being
blown around. Blowing snow will continue to be a concern for the
rest of the daytime hours today, transitioning to more low level
drifting snow with less lofting/impact to visibilities this
evening through the day Thursday. Fire weather concerns remain
over south central SD, where little to no precipitation has fallen
over the past few weeks.

The 500mb low over MN will shift east and north to over Ontario and
northern MN Thursday night into Friday morning. This will help keep
the mention of light snow over eastern SD/west central MN into our
far northeastern counties through Thursday night.

At the surface the low over northeastern CO will move across KS
overnight through Thursday morning before heading north Friday
across Lower Michigan. Most if not all of the precipitation should
stay south of our area, clipping mainly Jones/Lyman Counties. Over
northeastern SD/west central MN, the chance of light snow will
linger into Thursday night, assisted by a series of 500mb waves.
Little to no accumulation is expected

A surface high over southern Alberta/Saskatchewan will continue to
extend a weak ridge across mainly north central SD, and eventually
our eastern counties later Friday into the upcoming weekend. Mainly
dry weather is expected Friday through at least Tuesday of next
week, with only a 15% chance of light snow Tuesday night. Given the
origin region of our high, cold air will remain in place. Confidence
is higher than normal for temperatures through the weekend, with the
25-75th NBM percentiles mainly within 5 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 531 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

CIGs are noted to have improved to VFR across KABR/KATY, but
forecast is for MVFR CIGs to return tonight into Thursday, as well
as KPIR/KMBG.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
DISCUSSION...06
AVIATION...TMT