396
FXUS63 KABR 222312 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
612 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rainfall moves out this afternoon into early this evening. On
  average moisture expected ranges between 0.25in and 0.75in
  with locally higher amounts possible.

- Warmer next week, with temperatures persistently above
  average. Highs range in the upper 70s to upper 80s. Monday
  and Tuesday might see the mercury puncture the 90F degree mark
  (10 to 20 degrees above normal).

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 609 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

The forecast remains on track this evening. No major changes are
planned as the low pressure system bringing rain to the region
exits to the north.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 150 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

At 1 PM CDT, skies are cloudy and it continues to rain across the
CWA, mainly along/north of U.S. Highway 212. Temperatures are
holding mainly in the low to mid 50s, on southeast winds 10 to 20
mph with gusts up to 30 mph at times.

So, the upper circulation (over Kirley, SD) of this current rain
system will gradually spin its way up toward the Mobridge area by
early this evening and continue to trek on up into North Dakota
through the early overnight hours, taking the rest of the rain
chances with it. If the current clearing across central South
Dakota can continue to happen across the eastern/southeastern
portion of SoDak this afternoon, there could be some weak
convection developing along the wind shift line/warm front/cold
front triple point region, as it works its way north/eastward.
Low level wind shear and surface vorticity on these boundaries
could support the formation of perhaps a funnel cloud or two on
the updraft stage of any developing CU/TCU this afternoon.
However improbable as it would be for this to happen, should one
occur and reach all the way to the ground, it would be
considered a landspout. Again, there would need to be sufficient
sunshine/heating to destabilize the boundary layer this
afternoon, and that is, currently, looking rather improbable.

Not much change in the rest of the forecast beyond tonight. Other
than some potential accus-type/elevated showers or thunderstorms
straddling the southern CWA border on the low level jet Saturday
night, the forecast turns dry for Saturday through Tuesday, while
upper level ridging builds over the region and temperatures warm up.
A couple of the potentially warmest days of the 7-day forecast show
up Monday and Tuesday, at least that`s what the GFS/Canadian and NAM
and their associated ensembles would have one to believe. The
somewhat cooler ECMWF deterministic output and its ensembles are
cooler than the other models, insomuch as to register as a good 5 or
more degrees cooler in the temperature forecast for next week. And,
with the green up in full swing across the region, am inclined to
lean toward the EC`s cooler guidance. After Tuesday of next week,
the pattern becomes noticeably split flow, across the Pacific
Northwest on up into Canada, with the lower 48 landing itself in a
rather blocky/highly amplified trof/ridge/trof pattern, and the CWA
ends up stuck in the somewhat weak southerly component steering flow
winds aloft. There should be no lack of low level moisture to work
with, though. So, with some instability around in the region to work
with from mid to late next week, could be seeing some heat-of-the-
day popcorn variety showers/storms developing each afternoon/evening
with daytime heating.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 609 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

MVFR/IFR conditions will improve tonight at KMBG and KPIR and
then by noon at KABR and KATY as clouds associated with the
system currently bringing rain to the region exit.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...20
DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...20