872
FXUS63 KABR 051110
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
610 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures with highs in the 70s to low 80s Today
into Tuesday, about 15 to 20 degrees above normal.

- Temperatures about 10 degrees above normal for the rest of the
work week.

- Dry conditions through the work week as well.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 610 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

UPDATE for AVIATION discussion below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Warm advection mid clouds developing on satellite, and forecast in
soundings/NBM sky cover. Only about 50mb thickness at around 700mb,
so will have a limited impact on the forecast aside from less than
full sunshine for some locations in the east today. Local downslope
conditions for a brief period tonight with BUFKIT profiles
indicating about 40kts in the critical layer, and it will take just
before the front coming through, when we briefly achieve a southwest
oriented wind, to really take effect. Otherwise just breezy with
south flow and 1/2km winds at about 25-30kts.

Tuesday will be dominated by weak low level flow and weak cold
advection, with enhanced mixing on a northwest wind component. NBM
highs around 80.

The rest of the week remains mild albeit not quite as above normal
as the pattern is dominated by a northwesterly flow regime.

For the weekend, currently deterministic EC/GFS/Canadian all depict
some form of ridge crosses the north central CONUS followed by a
deepening trough over the western CONUS. Southwest flow regime will
help generate a low over the northern Rockies followed by a frontal
passage. Starting to see some NBM POPs creep into Sat/Sun but its
still pretty far off to come to any final conclusions regarding the
weekend forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 610 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Expect VFR conditions to continue through the period. While low
level wind shear is still possible after 03Z Tuesday at ATY,
confidence is lower on it occurring than 6 hours ago. As a
result any mention of low level wind shear has been removed from
the forecast at this time.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...06
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...06