012
FXUS63 KABR 221814
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
114 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Southerly winds gusting up to 35 to 45 mph today and relative
humidity values below 20 to 25 percent will combine to create Red
Flag conditions across central and northeastern SD and west central
MN. If a fire were to ignite, it could become difficult to control
or suppress.

- Showers and thunderstorms develop across central SD this evening
and move east overnight. There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for
severe storms west of the Prairie Coteau with the potential for wind
gusts of 60 to 70 mph.

- Strong sustained west winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts 40 to 50 mph
are expected Thursday mainly over central SD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 113 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Southerly winds are increasing south of a warm front stretching from
Fort Pierre to Watertown and creeping north this afternoon. Red Flag
Warning remains in effect for the winds that will combine with near
record highs and a very dry air mass to create very high to extreme
grassland fire danger.

Shortwave energy ejecting out of an upper trough over the Rockies
along with 45 to 50 kt llj will help generate convection this
evening starting in central SD around 0z. This will mostly be ahead
of and with a trailing cold front associated with the sfc low in
MT/ND. The marginal risk (1 out of 5) for severe storms has expanded
eastward to include all areas west of the Coteau. The main threat
with the steep lapse rates and enhanced DCAPE will be strong winds
with gusts of 60 to 70 mph (strongest in any short-lived
downbursts). The drier airmass will keep hail to a minimum, but
can`t rule out an isolated cell or two capable of producing 1 inch
hail. No wetting rains are expected with this system through
Thursday, so will need to look closely at the fire weather threat
Thursday, as well. Behind the convection/cold front more dry air
moves in with westerly winds gusting as high as 50 mph across
central SD by afternoon as the upper trough sweeps through with
reinforcing caa. Will likely need a wind advisory for Thursday, but
will push that off to the mid shift given the current headlines in
place for today and potential for fire considerations for tomorrow.

The sfc low shunts north Thursday night. Another trough sets up
early Friday, but models are not in good agreement about precip with
the trough off the Black Hills or with the Colorado low moving into
the plains late Friday. Global models seem to keep precip farther
south even though hi-res puts the initial activity early Friday
morning into central SD. With upper troughing digging into the
northern Plains Thursday into next week, high temperatures will be
below normal, topping out in the 50s through the middle of next week.



&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 113 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected through Thursday morning. Gusty
southerly winds today will shift to the west on Thursday.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for
     SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051.

MN...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...20