050
FXUS63 KABR 021936
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
236 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storm system Friday into Saturday brings 6 to 12 inches of snow
  across northern SD, with amounts tapering off to around an inch
  closer to I-90.

- Ice accumulations ranging from a few hundredths (region-wide)
  to as much as one-quarter inch (between Hwy 14 and 212).
  Confidence on overall icing accumulations and impacts is
  somewhat low.

- Northwest wind gusts increase to between 25 and 35 mph Friday
  night through Saturday. Visibility reductions at times in
  falling snow, but significant impacts from low visibility and
  blowing snow are not expected due to the heavy/wet nature of
  snow.

- Below normal temperatures remaining in place until perhaps
  Wednesday of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Still some lingering light snow/mixed precip across the far eastern
CWA as the first of two storm systems exits the area. Cancelled a
few counties in the eastern segment of the Winter Weather Advisory,
with just a sliver of counties in the far east remaining. Although,
impacts are rather limited as roadways are mainly just wet or even
drying off in some cases.

For tonight, surface low gets going over northeast CO, then moves
east along the NE/KS border by 12Z Friday. Models still indicating
rain/freezing rain/snow all moving northward into central/south
central SD between 06Z and 12Z tonight. In fact, leading edge of
precip (which looks to be in the form of freezing rain/sleet) may be
as far north as Hwy 212 or Hwy 12 by 12Z Friday, with snow on the
back edge along and west of the Missouri River. Soundings support
freezing rain (perhaps moderate to heavy) initially as the precip
moves into central SD just prior to sunrise, then continuing the
freezing rain threat over into east central SD closer to 18Z before
soundings take on more of a sleet/snow look. Snow will be filling in
over central SD Friday morning while also expanding eastward through
the day, especially over the northern half of SD. Snow continues
through Friday night and eventually ends from west to east across
the region on Saturday. Still a tricky system given the time of
year, and wonder how daytime snow/ice accums may be affected by
strengthening early April sun angle and surface temps approaching
freezing. The more significant impacts from any snow/ice covered
roadways may hold off until Friday night after sunset. All that
said, current forecast still calls for accumulations from 6 to 12
inches for many areas along and north of Hwy 212, with lesser
amounts tapering off to around an inch along I-90. As for ice
accumulations, they may range anywhere from a few hundredths or a
tenth, to perhaps as high as one-quarter inch or greater. Confidence
on overall ice accumulations and impacts is somewhat low, given the
time of year and surface/road temperatures.

Headline-wise, upgraded the watch to a Winter Storm Warning for the
northern CWA, but also did extend the warning a bit further south to
cover the Pierre region given some of the heftier ice totals
forecast, along with around 3 to 6 inches of snow. Along I-90 and
over portions of the eastern CWA, went with a Winter Weather
Advisory due to lower snow totals, although icing still could be
somewhat substantial/impactful and will have to keep a close eye on
this for possible headline changes.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Light/fine precipitation or mist continues at ABR, with visibility
down to around 4SM initially. Expect drier air to move into all
sites, but ceilings lingering mainly in the IFR category. The
trickiest location ceiling forecast wise has been MBG, which has
mainly stayed in the VFR to high end MVFR range so far today even
during light snow. The main concern over the next 24 hours will be
freezing rain moving into MBG/PIR 03-09Z Friday, and ABR/ATY
between 10-12Z Friday. Precipitation is most likely to change over
to snow by 13Z at MBG and between 16-17Z at ABR/PIR as colder air
moves in.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for SDZ008-
     021-023.

     Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM Friday to 7 PM CDT Saturday for
     SDZ006>008-011-018.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Friday to 7 PM CDT Saturday
     for SDZ019>023.

     Winter Storm Warning from 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Friday to 1 PM
     CDT /noon MDT/ Saturday for SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-
     033>037.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM Friday to 1 PM CDT Saturday
     for SDZ045-048-051.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ039-
     046.

     Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM Friday to 7 PM CDT Saturday for
     MNZ039.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Friday to 7 PM CDT Saturday
     for MNZ046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TMT
AVIATION...06