300
FXUS63 KABR 271919
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
219 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances for rain return Friday, with the best chances coming
Friday evening. A Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe
weather is in place. Hail of one inch in diameter and wind gusts of
60 to 70 miles per hour will be the main severe hazards.

- Another Marginal Risk for severe weather is in place for storms
developing Saturday evening. Hail of one inch in diameter and wind
gusts of 60 miles per hour are the main severe threats.

- Near normal temperatures are expected through the weekend, with
highs in the 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 213 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Mostly clear skies remain in place this afternoon, and these
conditions are expected to persist through tonight. The only other
item of note in the near-term is that wind will continue to shift
through the evening and overnight time frame to become out of the
southeast. Once wind completes the shift, gusts will increase to 20
to 30 miles per hour at their peak, expanding from central and north
central South Dakota today to the entire forecast area by Friday
morning.

A low-level jet develops Friday evening, which when combined with a
shortwave aloft will help develop storms over the area. There is
also some consensus on the presence of a warm front oriented west to
east, extending from a low pressure center that will move into
western South Dakota. There is still some disagreement within the
models as to the north/south placement and progression of this
front, which leads to some additional uncertainty on the location of
storm development. High-resolution models tend to show a stronger
signal for storms to move in from the west, influenced more by the
shortwave energy and low pressure center. A smaller subset of models
also show the potential for development along the warm front and low-
level jet over northeastern South Dakota. With both areas of storms
in the evening, the expectations are that hail and wind will be the
primary severe threats. 1000-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE will be in place,
and shear of 30-40 knots will support the hail potential, along with
mid-level lapse rates between 7 and 8 C/km. Additionally, DCAPE
values over 1000 J/kg are expected over much of the area, leading to
the wind potential, particularly if stronger winds from the low-
level jet are able to mix to the surface. Not anticipating a
widespread tornado threat at this time, but can`t entirely rule it
out either. If a brief spinup were to occur, the most likely
location would be along the warm front.

Another shortwave aloft and associated vorticity maximum is set to
move into the region Saturday evening, thereby creating another
chance for storm development. Once again it appears as though hail
will be the dominant threat due to MUCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg coupled
with 40-50 knots of shear. Mid-level lapse rates are generally
expected to fall in the 6-7 C/km range, which is perhaps a little
less favorable than ideal conditions for development, but still
plenty steep enough to sustain the hail threat. Confidence is a bit
lower in the severe wind threat, mainly due to a low signal for
anything more than isolated pockets of DCAPE > 1000 J/kg. However
with low-level lapse rates near dry adiabatic, stronger gusts and/or
microbursts may occasionally produce a severe gust or two. With this
threat, there is another Marginal Risk for severe weather in place,
mainly covering north central and parts of central South Dakota.

Starting Sunday and into next week, the broad upper-level ridge that
has been in place will shift eastward. As a result, an upper-level
low will pass to the north, bringing multiple jet streaks over the
region through early next week. This setup will be conducive to
additional rain chances, with the best chances generally located
along the North Dakota/South Dakota border. Still a bit early to
talk about severe weather potential, and medium-range machine
learning models do not give a strong signal for severe potential
after Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions expected today, as mainly clear skies will be present
today. There may be occasional development of diurnal cumulus, but
the areal extent of those clouds is not expected to be large, and
are not expected to drop ceilings to MVFR levels. Winds continue to
turn to be out of the southeast through the day today and into the
overnight period, gusting as high as 20 to 25 knots overnight
tonight over central and north central South Dakota, expanding to
the entire forecast area by Friday morning. While conditions are
expected to be dry through the TAF period, chances for rain return
Friday afternoon and evening, with the potential for severe
thunderstorms Friday evening into the early overnight period Friday
night.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...BC