818
FXUS63 KABR 091810 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1210 PM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A band of light snow migrates west to east across central and
northeast South Dakota today. Little if any accumulations
anticipated.

- Additional chances for snow come Saturday morning west of the
Missouri River. Only minor accumulations are expected, with up to an
inch possible at the most.

- A couple of chances for precipitation may be materializing next
week on Tuesday (20-40 percent chance) and then again on Thursday
(25-50 percent chance). Moreso a rain eventually becoming snow
scenario on Tuesday versus a mainly snow scenario on Thursday. And,
with both potential events, strong northwest winds, including gusts
in excess of 40 mph, are a concern.

- Except for high temperatures generally in the teens and 20s on
Saturday, above normal temperatures are forecast during most of the
7-day forecast, with at least 30s and 40s expected for highs.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1146 AM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

The aviation discussion has been updated for the 18Z TAFS.

UPDATE Issued at 1028 AM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

The forecast for the rest of today remains on track with no
changes expected at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 302 AM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

Currently (~09Z) monitoring some light radar returns move into
central and north central South Dakota this morning. At the moment
seeing little in the way of precipitation reaching the surface from
observations and webcams. The expectation through most of the rest
of the day is that this setup of some minor development aloft will
fail to reach the surface, although some ares may see a few
flurries. Later this evening some redevelopment is expected over
northeastern South Dakota, but still just a few flurries to a couple
hundredths of liquid equivalent are expected.

Saturday, the upper-level pattern will progress eastward, and a
ridge will push into the western CONUS/Canada. On the front side of
that ridge, a jet streak will move over the Northern Plains and
support chances for some light snow over parts of the Aberdeen
forecast area Saturday morning. The biggest obstacle that any
developing snowfall may face will be a layer of drier air near the
surface. However, most model guidance indicates that the dry air
will eventually saturate with enough precipitation falling into and
evaporating in the layer, helped by the additional cold air
advecting in. Current guidance suggests that the highest chances for
any snowfall will be west of the Missouri River, particularly over
Stanley, Jones, and Lyman counties. Snowfall accumulation is
generally expected to be minimal, with the NBM giving up to a 20%
chance for an inch of snow and little else beyond that. The HREF is
a bit more aggressive with the QPF, translating to around 2 inches
of snow in a "worst case" scenario when adjusting for the expected
snow ratio of between 15-20:1. Forecaster confidence would lean more
in the direction of the NBM`s solution given the time needed for the
profile to saturate before snow can begin to accumulate. Model
guidance continues to show the jet streak progressing eastward
through the day Saturday into northeastern South Dakota, but drier
air will prevent anything more than flurries from developing.

The aforementioned cold air advection will drop high temperatures
Saturday afternoon to closer to normal for this time of year than
has been the trend for the past few days. Highs in the upper 20s
over central and north central South Dakota are near normal, while
teens to low 20s over northeastern South Dakota are around 5 degrees
below normal. Northwesterly gusts up to 25 miles per hour (or
perhaps higher on the downslope of the Prairie Coteau) will bring
apparent temperatures down even further, hanging around 0 degrees
for most of the afternoon over northeastern South Dakota.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 302 AM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

The whole period contains two distinct features; west coast upper
level ridge and Hudson Bay upper level trof/low, some derivation
thereof. Over this CWA, steering flow ranges from northwesterly to
nearly meridional (from the north). Multiple mid-level
shortwaves/clippers are progged in all of the GSM`s and their
ensembles to dive south or southeast down the back of the western
CONUS upper ridge and stir up the low level thermal advection
pattern all the while. Sunday and Monday look particularly warm (per
deterministic GSM`s low level WAA thermal progs and ENS`s EFI-shift
of tails ensemble output).

A couple of these clipper systems showing up as strong enough to
"register on the qpf scale" out there at days 4 and 6 are worth
noting here. And, this is leading to slightly higher than moderate
forecaster confidence that these potential scenarios are legit. Both
systems appear to carve out a fairly decent divot at 500hpa as they
dive southeastward through southern Canada, tracking on down across
the Dakotas, Minnesota and the western Great Lakes region during
said time periods. The Tuesday system may, in fact, be two separate
upper waves working through Monday night and Tuesday (PoPs generally
20-40 percent) on their way to creating a fairly deep/strong large
upper level longwave trof over the eastern CONUS Tuesday night
through Thursday. Low levels appear to be warm enough to support
rain p-type early Tuesday morning through the day Tuesday. But,
Tuesday night, it appears as though low level CAA kicks in and any
remaining/lingering precipitation chances would be transitioning
rather quickly to snow p-type. And, of course, it wouldn`t be a
clipper scenario without a little bit of wind potential,
particularly once the cold air starts flooding in Tuesday evening.

Right now, it appears as though the cold air that moves in mid-week,
will be sufficient to make p-type for the system way out at the end
of the period snow (PoPs for this system currently set at ~25-50
percent). This will be monitored closely for any changes/trends in
the coming days. Likewise, this system could pack a pretty good
punch, wind-wise.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1146 AM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions can be expected to prevail at all terminals through
this TAF cycle. Winds are expected to average out of the west to
northwest between 5-15 knots through the period with some higher
gusts around 20 knots possible later this afternoon and again
toward the end of this 24 hour forecast period. If there are any
sub VFR conditions possible, it would be across central SD and far
northeast SD and west central MN Saturday morning, although these
lower cigs may not materialize until after this current TAF valid
period. Light snow will be possible for parts of central SD
Saturday morning. There`s some uncertainty how far east of the
Missouri River this sets up. For now, left out mention of low
cigs and precipitation at KPIR/KMBG terminals.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Vipond
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...Vipond