136
FXUS63 KABR 011720
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1220 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 20% chance of light showers Saturday afternoon and
  evening over northeastern SD and west central MN. Little to no
  accumulation is expected

- Winds out of the northwest will gust 30-40mph Monday
  afternoon. There is a 20% chance of winds gusting over 45 mph
  west of the James River Monday afternoon.

- High temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday of next week will be
  around 10 degrees below normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Other than a few short periods with the chance of precipitation
below 30%, we have a mainly dry forecast over the next 7 days. The
17Z surface map shows high pressure centered across the James River
Valley up through eastern ND. This area of high pressure will sink
to NE and southeastern SD by 06Z, with winds shifting out of the
south but remaining light around 10kts or less. Winds will increase
out of the west to southwest during the day Saturday behind the
exiting high and ahead of low pressure currently set up along the
Alberta/Saskatchewan border.

The surface low will sink southeast across ND and northwestern SD
Saturday. Highs Saturday will be in the mid 60s to mid 70s, lowest
over the Prairie Coteau of northeastern SD. There is a 20% chance of
light showers Saturday afternoon and evening over northeastern SD
and west central MN. Little to no accumulation is expected. The low
will exit to our southeast shortly after 06Z Sunday, putting an end
to any lingering light precipitation. High pressure will
briefly build in Sunday - mainly to our south.

The main concern will be with the next low over southern Canada
(southern Manitoba) Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening. The low
will tract east across Ontario Monday while dropping a cold front
across SD Monday. We have around a 20% chance of rain showers Monday
morning. Winds out of the west will shift out of the northwest in
the morning and gust 30 to near 40 mph. There is a 20% chance of
winds gusting over 45 mph west of the James River Monday afternoon.
The strongest cold air advection will be over far northern SD and
west central MN. We`ll continue to monitor the latest trends, as
blowing dust may be possible across areas north of Pierre
- where less precipitation has fallen over the last week.

Cooler air will move back in Monday, and especially Monday night
through Thursday - with mainly northwesterly flow at 500mb. Lows
will again be near freezing.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will be continuing through the day and tonight. Some
mid level clouds will be possible over central and northeastern
South Dakota into the afternoon as scattered cumulus develop. These
clouds will be dissipating during the evening. Winds will stay below
15 mph over most terminals through the afternoon, though KATY could
see gusts below 20 mph at times during the afternoon. Winds will
calm through the evening and into tonight as they become southerly
before picking up again during the morning.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...06
AVIATION...12