066
FXUS63 KABR 190035
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
735 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High temperatures will be 15 to 30 degrees above normal through
  Saturday.

- Expect increased fire weather concerns over central SD through
  Saturday, with winds in the afternoon gusting 20-30 mph.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 726 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

The temperature forecast has been increased through Saturday. This
trend looks on track, given that temperatures were above our
forecast, especially east of the Prairie Coteau.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

In the near term, with snow rapidly melting, shooting dewpoints into
the mid 30s to low 40s by lunchtime, overnight fog seems like it
would be a slam dunk. We will still have westerly low level flow
which is not a favorable direction for fog usually, however such
high dewpoints already in place and still more moisture (snow) on
the ground evident via satellite, hard to reason against it. CAMS
are also almost universally in support of fog development tonight.

The rest of the forecast concerns center on the warmer temperatures
and fire danger over the next few days. The upper level pattern is
dominated by the upper high/heat ridge out west, with northwest flow
aloft, until around Saturday/Sunday timeframe at which point
deterministic models suggest the ridge is suppressed enough to allow
for a more zonal, westerly flow regime to set up briefly. Embedded
within this flow is a low amplitude shortwave. Once this feature
passes, models diverge on whether the ridge out west re-develops or
is merely transitory with another wave coming into the west coast
for mid-week.

As for temperatures, 850mb temperatures should stay within the
bounds of +4 to +6C across western Minnesota to low teens along the
Missouri valley through Thursday night. There is a brief jump in
temperatures aloft associated with a low that moves across Minnesota
into the Western Lakes region.  Thus a subtle shift from southwest
to northwest low level flow and very weak cold advection, which will
knock 850mb temperatures down about 3C from a peak of about +12C to
+18C from northeast to southwest across the CWA. Thats followed by
another surge in temperatures aloft for Friday night, up to +15 to
+18C (2 standard deviations above climo) by Saturday morning, with a
late day backdoor cold front which will shift the warm air aloft
southwards.

So, in summary, its a steady warmup starting today, with
temperatures 10 degrees above average in the east/western Minnesota,
to up around 30 degrees above normal out west Thursday. Then more
broadly 20 to 30 above normal Friday and Saturday before we cool it
back to normal for Sunday.  After that it appears the pattern is
more supportive of early springlike temperatures as opposed to this
jump straight into summer. It should be important to note there is
an NBM bias with highs running closer to the 10 to 25th percentiles
in general.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 726 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will continue at MBG and PIR. Patchy to areas of
fog will develop at ABR and ATY overnight and continue until 16Z
at ABR and through much of the morning at ATY, with IFR to LIFR
ceilings/vis forecast.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...06
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...06