801
FXUS63 KABR 162139
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
339 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High Wind Warning ends early this evening, and Winter Weather
Advisory headlines remain in effect through this evening.

- Bands of light snow with intermittent white out conditions to
diminish in coverage and intensity this evening and overnight a
strong winds out of the northwest slowly weaken, with gusts of 30 to
35 mph by daybreak Saturday.

- Wind chills of -20 to near -30 degrees expected Saturday morning,
lowest over the Leola Hills.

- Winds out of the northwest will gust of 45 to 55 mph late Sunday
morning through Sunday afternoon. These winds will be accompanied by
light snow of around an inch or less across portions of northeastern
South Dakota and west central Minnesota.

- Wind chills of -15 to near -30 degrees are expected Monday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

The cold area of high pressure at the surface across Saskatchewan
will sink over the western Dakotas by 18Z Saturday and reside from
eastern KS through eastern NE with a ridge extending up through the
eastern half of SD through southwestern MN. The ridge will exit
through the evening as another Canadian low nears.

Winds remain elevated, with gusts of 35mph over west central MN to
around 40 to 55mph across central SD. These winds will slowly relax
this evening, with winds still gusting above 45 mph through around
04Z Saturday over portions of central SD. Given the still elevated
winds and continued snow, the Winter Weather Advisory has been
extended until 06Z. Winds will slowly diminish with gusts of 30-
35mph by 12Z Saturday as temperatures fall either side of 0.
Combined with the winds, wind chills will be in the -20 to -30
degree range Saturday morning.

Fire weather concerns have diminished slightly, given that all
locations received at least a dusting of snow. The ongoing cold air
will keep this moisture on the fuels until temperatures warm over
central SD Sunday and potentially Tuesday over portions of
northeastern SD. Another round of light snow Sunday will also act to
limit some of the more robust fire weather concerns. We`ll still
need to be monitoring areas west of the MO River through, where the
warmest/driest air will remain and little snow fell.

Unfortunately winds will increase again Sunday. Snow on the ground
from this event will add to the available blowable snow (mainly over
the Prairie Coteau or where any significant bands of snow were able
to set up). The surface low over southern Manitoba at 06Z Sunday
will extend a warm front across western SD. This boundary will
continue to eastern SD by 12Z Sunday as the parent low sinks along
the ND/MN border and the cold front extends west across central ND.
The low will push across Mn and Lake Superior by Sunday afternoon
with the cold front rapidly sinking south. There is a 30-50% of 1"
of snow or more northeast of a line from around Andover to
Watertown. Most of the snow looks to fall 12-18Z Sunday, with the
strongest winds not perfectly aligned with the highest snowfall.
Winds out of the northwest are forecast to gust 45 to 55 mph late
Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon.

Otherwise, there is around a 20% chance of light snow Tuesday night
and again Friday. Temperatures will jump back to near normal values
Sunday afternoon then reside near to slightly below normal for the
rest of the work week. While there are some peak gusts of 30 to
near 40mph briefly Monday, winds for the rest of the forecast
remain much lighter than what we`re experiencing now and going to
experience Sunday afternoon.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1154 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Mainly MVFR conditions continue, with temporary reductions in
visibility to 1-2 miles and lower at times as winds gust 35-50kts
and off and on light snow continues into this evening. Winds will
only slowly diminish this evening and overnight, with gusts of
25-30kts still by 15Z Saturday.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST /11 PM MST/ tonight
     for SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051.

     High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening for
     SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-033>037-045-048-051.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for MNZ039-
     046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...06
AVIATION...06