959
FXUS63 KABR 111524
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1024 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Continued dry conditions today, with relative humidity
  falling to 15 to 30% and southerly winds gusting 30-40 mph
  will bring high Grassland Fire Danger Index values to portions
  of central to northeastern SD. A Red Flag Warning remains in
  effect for portions of mainly central SD this afternoon.

- High to very high Grassland Fire Danger is forecast Tuesday
  and Thursday as winds gust 35 to 45 mph, with a few locations
  gusting to near 50 mph. Relative humidity over much of the
  area will fall into the 15 to 30% range.

- High temperatures through Saturday will be in the 70s and
  80s, highest Thursday through Saturday when temperatures will
  be around 20 degrees above normal.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1025 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Frost Advisory has been cancelled. Temperatures have risen into
the mid to upper 40s over northeastern SD and west central MN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 120 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

As of 1 AM CDT, temperatures around the area are in the upper 30s
with light winds out of the northeast. Temperatures tonight are
expected to reach the low 30s and support frost development again. A
Frost Advisory is in effect from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT across northeast
SD. This looks to be the last night with frost potential for the
next week at least.

The main concern for the forecast remains elevated fire danger with
strong southerly winds today gusting 30 to 40 mph starting later
this morning and continued dry conditions. A Red Flag warning
remains for south central SD from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT. If RH values
drop below forecast, additional counties to the north may be added.
A cold front will move through this evening into the overnight to
bring northwesterly winds Tuesday that, aided by CAA, are expected
to gust 35 to 45 mph, locally higher gusts of 50 mph possible.
Another cold front moves through Thursday bringing another round of
35 to 45 mph winds after a calmer Wednesday. 10-20 degrees above
average temperatures this week will also contribute to elevated fire
danger. The next chance for some widespread precipitation looks to
be Saturday afternoon through Sunday as a low makes its way across
ND. The chance of more than a tenth of an inch in the 24 hours
ending Sunday morning is about 30% across the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 618 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected through tonight.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 9
    PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for SDZ033-035-045-048.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...06
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...20