875
FXUS63 KABR 242350
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
550 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures will continue through Saturday. High
  temperatures will be in the mid 30s and 40s (and 50s to low 60s
  over south central South Dakota).

- Fog and drizzle/freezing drizzle remain possible (20%) mainly
  across the Prairie Coteau of far northeast South Dakota into
  west central MN late tonight through Christmas day evening. A
  glaze of ice may accumulate over this region.

- Strong northwest winds and bitterly cold temperatures will
  happen Saturday evening through Sunday. Sustained winds in
  excess of 30 mph and gusts in excess of 45 mph are a concern.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 518 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

Looking at the current conditions, there is just a small area of
lower ceilings moving across northeast South Dakota, with some
sub cloud visibility reductions in the 6 to 9 mile range. This is
moisture trapped under a strong inversion, and mixing is
additionally limited by northeasterlies. That said, there is
little cloud cover currently upstream in ND and northern Minnesota
so while models are pretty consistent in both lowering visibility
and developing low stratus, and the area of clouds overhead is
expanding, most of this will have to develop in situ. Given that
guidance says we should have it soon, but we still have 5 to 10
degree dewpoint depressions in central SD, not sure it won`t be a
couple of hours before things get widespread outside of the
northeast.

In regards to freezing drizzle, models are pretty consistent in
BUFKIT of a 2 to 2.5 kft thick stratus layer. Thats a little shy
of the minimum we would normally consider to generate
actual drizzle and lightyears away from the thicker values where
we could say this could happen with any degree of confidence let
alone generate enough to warrant a travel hazard. As such,
severely tempered any mention of freezing drizzle outside of the
upslope areas of the Coteau and western Minnesota where the
profile is 2.5kft at its thickest.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 237 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

At 2 PM CST, skies were mostly sunny and only a small remnant of
this morning`s (patchy dense?) fog remains between the Missouri and
James River valleys. There is another area of fog/stratus across
east central and southeast South Dakota to keep an eye on.
Temperatures are in the 30s and 40s, for the most part on north-
northeast winds around 5 to 15 mph.

Guidance in this post-frontal environment is highly supportive of
fog/freezing fog developing tonight up onto the Prairie Coteau
and west of the James River valley. Although various model
families fed through BUFKIT show a stratus layer developing
tonight and persisting into Christmas day, none of them show a
stratus layer 1km deep or deeper that would support
drizzle/freezing drizzle. Right now, the things that are showing
up in favor for drizzle/freezing drizzle are a dry layer right
above the stratus and moderate uvv`s within the (less than 1km
deep) stratus layer. Seems like the greatest likelihood for any
sort of very light precipitation would be during the day on
Christmas day, mainly across and east of the Prairie Coteau, when
low level WAA kicks back in and low level winds become south-
southeast. Left going 10-25% chance of drizzle/freezing drizzle
going in the forecast for now, per collaboration with neighboring
offices.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 237 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

Beyond that, the low level WAA pattern persists until Saturday
evening when the next upper level trof sweeps east-southeast across
southern Canada and the northern tier counties of the contiguous
U.S. over the weekend. According to the various models and their
ensembles, there will be over 20 degrees Celsius of cooling
happening at 925hpa between 00Z Sunday and 18Z Sunday. Pretty strong
low level CAA. There is also a another pretty strong pressure rise
bubble headed this way Saturday night. Suspect this will probably be
the next potential round of strong northwest winds (Saturday evening
through Sunday) in excess of 30 mph sustained and gusts in excess of
45 mph. The rest of the 7-day forecast is a return to a positive PNA
upper flow pattern, with low level WAA and CAA patterns taking turns
over this CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 518 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

CIGS/VSBY will gradually drop to a mix of MVFR/IFR with low
stratus and fog expected to develop for all terminals.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...07