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Forecast Discussion for Aberdeen, SD
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000 FXUS63 KABR 252310 AAA AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 610 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Winds will remain breezy out of the southeast with gusts of 35 to near 45 mph, and slowly diminish from west to east into Friday morning. - Marginal risk for severe storms with strong winds over 60 mph and small hail over portions of north central SD into this evening. - Weak thunderstorms will remain possible through Friday night. Periodic soaking rains will continue into Saturday morning. Another round of rain showers will move in Sunday, with a focus over our southern and eastern counties. && .SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 401 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Elevated winds remain a concern over the next 1-3 hours, before slowly diminishing. Several SD DOT and other locations have peaked with wind gusts of 40-48 mph with a couple of locations briefly around 50 mph. Winds will continue to be highlighted in our HWO and other products through the evening hours. Given the strong winds, the storms currently over Meade/Perkins/Ziebach Counties (where winds are currently gusting around 30 mph) will not take much to bring down near severe wind gusts. We`ll continue to monitor the storms as they move into a less favorable area. MLCAPE values near 1400J/kg will shift to central SD by 00Z Thursday and diminish. While most storms will have a mainly easterly component, any right moving supercells that could develop would be shifting to the southeast. Bowing segments or outflows still show up on the latest HRRR runs, and we will continue to monitor for that potential with gusty winds pushing out away from storms. The main wave of precipitation, with embedded weak thunderstorms, will shift overhead overnight. There is significant enough differences in the CAMs and other models to reduce confidence in overall rainfall totals. Friday may end up with significant dry periods between the Missouri River and James River, especially during the afternoon hours as rain bands rotate through. There end up being a couple of maximums with this initial wave into Saturday, over central SD and far eastern SD/west central MN. Overall, the surface low will shift northeast from Colorado to Kansas and Minnesota Saturday morning, pushing a wetting rain across the region. The initial surge of rain showers will overspread the area during the evening and overnight hours. While there will be breaks in the showers they will continue through at least Friday night. The rain showers may be accompanied by thunderstorms/mainly just rumbles of thunder (after our initial storms this evening over north central SD) through Friday evening. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 401 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 This period kicks off at 12Z Saturday with one low pressure system departing while the next one organizes right on the heels of the first one to our southwest. Lingering rain shower activity will be possible Saturday morning, especially across our eastern zones as the upper low circulation and its sfc reflection lift northeast across MN into the western Great Lakes. Any additional rainfall will be minimal with up to around a tenth of an inch of accumulation possible during the morning. Otherwise, our forecast area could sneek in a period of dry conditions at least by midday and afternoon before the next surge of moisture moves into the region. Daytime high temperatures will be on the cool side as we`re expecting extensive cloud cover and 950mb temps between about +5C and +10C. During the course of the day on Saturday, the 2nd in the series of 500mb low pressure systems will be organizing across the Four Corners region of the CONUS. Deterministic and ensemble guidance has a fairly good handle on this system. They prog it to track northeastward out into the Central Plains by Saturday night. It will continue to take a northeastward track into NE during the day Sunday and end up somewhere around the eastern SD/western MN border region by Sunday night before lifting across northern MN and Ontario on Monday. The sfc low is expected to be somewhat more displaced farther southeast from the upper features compared to the first system that moves through tomorrow and Saturday. Guidance takes this system`s sfc low through the Omaha, NE area and central IA by midday Sunday and Sunday afternoon and then on up toward the Twin Cities and western Great Lakes on Monday. The first surge of moisture with this system is forecast to make it northward into our forecast area by late Saturday night/early Sunday morning. This activity should become more prevalent and widespread during the daytime as the upper wave circulation moves closer into our region. It appears at this time our far southern and eastern zones will have the greatest potential to see the steadier rain shower activity and higher rainfall potential by the time this system winds down early Monday. NBM QPF probabilities for seeing a quarter of an inch or more in a 24-hour period ending at 12Z Monday range from 30-70 percent with this highest values(>50%) from the James Valley and east into west central MN. Bumping up the probs to at least a half inch or more within that same time frame prog our eastern zones(James Valley and points east) between a 40-50 percent range. Farther west, probabilities drop off considerably to between 10-30 percent. By 12Z Monday, most of the PoPs associated with this system will be exiting our far eastern zones. A dry period can be expected thereafter until late Monday into early Tuesday with another mid-lvl wave traverses the region from west to east. Only light rain shower activity and minimal rainfall is expected at this time. Drier conditions will return for the end of the period by the middle of next week. Temperatures will remain rather cool on Sunday with highs struggling to reach 50 degrees. It will be brief however as a warming trend is expected during the course of the first half of next week. Temperatures at or above normal will be possible with daytime temperatures in the 60s and 70s and overnight lows in the 30s and 40s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 606 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG As showers and thunderstorms gradually develop east and north tonight, we can also expect lower cigs to form over the region, likely becoming IFR after midnight. Showers may also bring occasional MVFR vsbys. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KF LONG TERM...Vipond AVIATION...TDK |
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