996
FXUS63 KABR 101149
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
649 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow over central SD this afternoon will expand across
  northeastern SD and west central MN by mid afternoon, and linger
  into tonight. A dusting to around an inch or two of snow is
  forecast.

- Low pressure from the northwest will bring strong winds,
  although confidence is low on specifics, gusts of 30 to
  potentially 40 mph over central SD.

- There is a 40% chance of light rain Thursday into Thursday
  evening. A wintry mix of rain or snow is possible near the ND/SD
  border.

- Another area of low pressure will bring a 40 to 60% chance of
  mainly snow this weekend. High and low temperatures Sunday into
  Monday will be about 15 to 20 degrees below normal.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 649 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Our break from light snow is short lived, as light snow is
currently being indicated on the radar from central SD through
the MO River of Dewey County. The chance of precipitation has been
increased slightly across central SD to account for this.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 217 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Band of snow mostly along and north of the SD/ND state line and
continues to weaken. Mid and high clouds expected to remain in place
prior to the arrival of a more transient area of snow as a low
develops to the south today. Overall not much has changed with this
feature with an NBM mean of 1/2 to 1.5 inches, while the 75th
percentiles runs up closer to 2-3 inches. No headlines as such.

Wednesday, several higher resolution models indicate that while
we`re under weak surface high pressure between two systems, with
weak subsidence, cold mid temperatures result in steep lapse rates
and instability thanks to mid March sunshine. NAM squeezes 1-200
j/kg CAPE through about about 6 to 12kft, though the GFS profiles
are more stable overall. Will keep NBM below mention POPs but may
need to adjust sky cover for scattered cumulus in the future if it is
in fact as unstable as these profiles suggest.

Focus then shifts to a clipper for Thursday. Confidence is not good,
with all deterministic models showing variation in track/intensity,
from the GFS 990mb low over Fargo to the NAM pushing a weaker low
through the northeast of South Dakota, to the EC which has an even
weaker low moving northwest to southeast across the state before
deepening, to the Canadian which drops the low down through Omaha.
This creates a huge range in NBM winds, with a 25th-75th percentile
spread of 15 to 25 mph. Will stick with what NBM has populated as
its difficult to pick winners and losers from the data provided. The
high end/greatest impact to winds would be from the GFS with a
BUFKIT mixed wind depiction of deep mixing and unidirectional flow,
supporting 60kts to the surface. Again, that`s one extreme, while
the other deterministic models would support much much less intense
winds.  As for moisture with this feature, again its a low
confidence forecast with placement and timing. Will continue with
NBM which is just a few hundredths. Another potential consideration
is the NAM indicating steep mid level lapse rates continue to push
for potential convection near the low with northeast CWA BUFKIT
profiles indicating some CAPE, strong winds and freezing levels down
to around 1kft. Will need to continue to evaluate for snow squall
potential but confidence given model spread is too low at this time
to start advertising.

We will be under another weak high until the next system for
Saturday. This one is taking on more of a Colorado low type look but
with a more shallow and transient trajectory as the shortwave comes
down from the northwest. Probability of exceeding 6 inches with the
weekend system currently stands at 30-40% along the northern tier of
the state into western Minnesota. Thats a slight downwards tick from
the previous runs of the NBM with a shift northwards in the focus
area for higher snowfall amounts.

That is also during a timeperiod in which we will see well below
normal temperatures, with GEFS 850mb temperatures a standard
deviation below climo. It should be noted GEFS mean is around
-8 to -16C, while deterministic EC/GFS are well aligned mid day
Monday at -12 to -20C. Given we`re still talking a week away, will
stick with NBM which currently has highs/lows Sunday/Monday running
about 15 to 20 degrees below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 649 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions at PIR/MBG initially this morning will deteriorate
to MVFR by late morning as light snow moves in and expands east.
MVFR conditions will return to ABR by 21Z and continue until 06Z
Wednesday, and by around 16Z at ATY and remain through the rest of
the TAF period. Winds through the period will remain around 10kts
or less.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...06
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...06