814
FXUS63 KABR 090532
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1232 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Severe Thunderstorm watch is in effect for central/north
  central and northeast South Dakota into western Minnesota.
  Hail to 2" and 70 mph wind gusts are the main concerns with
  storms. We`re also seeing heavy rainfall. As the morning
  progresses, the coverage of the watch will adjust as storms
  move southeast.

- A Slight Risk for severe weather (level 2 out of 5) for
  Monday.  Timing of storms is mainly late evening and
  overnight. Main threats are large (1 to 2" diameter) and winds
  in excess of 60 mph.

- Wildfire smoke aloft is expected to persist the next several
  days,  however there is little potential for the smoke at the
  surface.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

30-40kt low level jet with a weak wave aloft continues to progress
across eastern South Dakota, responsible for storms in north central
South Dakota at midnight. NAM BUFKIT profiles indicate about 3.5k
j/kg CAPE in strong unidirectional flow of 30 to 50kts from about
2km through 8km depth. Thus, expect splitting supercell storms with
a large hail threat.

For today then, surface high pressure to the north will result in a
north breezy with drier air and slightly cooler temperatures. Mixed
winds in BUFKIT are on average about 15 to 20kts with an east to
northeast trajectory.

As the high continues east, low level flow around this feature
becomes enhanced tonight, with 1/2km winds increasing to 25-30kts
across mostly western/central South Dakota. Warm advection at 700mb
as well for the same area. NAM shows a weak wave early in the day,
with a northwest flow shortwave also clipping the northeast early
Monday. There is a little bit of a disconnect between each of these
elements providing for some uncertainty into the coverage and
severity of storms. While not a universal outcome between CAMS, many
are are showing evening storms out west river weakening before low
level jet re-invigoration over central South Dakota, as well as some
storms dropping into the northeast later in the morning.

Looks like this pattern, with nocturnal storms, continues into
Monday night/Tuesday morning as well.

In regards to smoke, nothing new or earth shattering, just continued
elevated smoke with again a unfavorable fetch for mixing down or
trapping smoke at the surface.

As for temperatures for the latter half of the work week, while we
are still under a northwest flow regime, there is strengthening of
an eastern CONUS upper trough, allowing for more direct flow from
Canada and thus cooler temperatures, though it should be noted that
the latest NBM has shifted to a less drastic cool down (raised
forecast temperatures about 2-3 degrees) Thursday/Friday/Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast for all terminals outside of any areas
of convection this morning. Already have strong/severe thunderstorms
ongoing about 15 to 20 miles north-northeast of KMBG, drifting
southeastward. MVFR/IFR visbies in heavy rain, large hail (>1 inch)
and strong winds (>40 kts) are all possible with early morning
convection. There is also a front pushing south across the region,
turning southerly winds more northeasterly through about mid-day
before they settle in to more of an east-southeasterly situation by
early this evening.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...10