384
FXUS63 KABR 161956
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
256 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm, dry and windy conditions will persist through the late
  afternoon into the early evening. A Red Flag Warning remains in
  effect until early evening for most of the area as Very High
  Grassland Fire Danger conditions persist.

- A cold front will sweep through tonight. Winds will become
  northerly and turn gusty driving in a much cooler air mass by
  daybreak Friday.

- Light rain or a rain/snow mix will be possible this evening into
  the overnight with very little in the way of accumulations
  expected for most areas. Portions of north central SD still have
  a 50/50 chance for seeing a quarter of an inch of
  precipitation.

- The cooler than normal pattern will spill over into the
  beginning of the weekend before temperatures gradually warm
  back above normal through the first half of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Most of the forecast area is seeing south to southwest winds gusts
between 25-35 mph this afternoon, with a few spots even closer to 40
mph at times. RH values have ranged as low as 15-25 percent for most
locales so far this afternoon. We still have the remainder of the
afternoon for peak heating and drying on the way. Wind speeds will
remain gusty but as a low pressure system continues to work into the
area, winds will slacken some by late afternoon and early evening.
Will be keeping the Red Flag Warning in place though through the
early evening.

For tonight, a cold front associated with that area of low pressure
will move through the area. South to southwest winds will turn west
to northwest this evening before eventually northerly by late
tonight and early Friday. BUFKIT profiles still show a stout
inverted-V structure with a pooling of elevated moisture and
instability aloft. Can`t rule out a few elevated storms across parts
of central SD through the first half of the evening. Most of the
energy and precip associated with this next upper wave set to enter
the region tonight and Friday will be post frontal light rain
initially. As a colder air mass begins to infiltrate the area
overnight, a rain/snow mix or perhaps a little sleet will be
possible. Any accumulations will be quite minor and mainly occur on
grassy areas during the overnight hours across the northern tier of
counties in SD. Moisture remains rather limited for most of the CWA,
with the exception of north central SD. Grand Ensemble probs for
greater than a quarter of an inch still range between 40-70 percent
north and west of the Mobridge area. Guidance still remains locked
in on an area of low stratus to overtake most of the area late
tonight and persist into the morning hours. Improvements are
expected by midday and afternoon but cloud cover looks to remain
prevalent through the day.

Cold air advection setting in tonight in early Friday will lead to a
much colder day on Friday. Daytime temperatures are expected to
struggle, especially if cloud cover remains thick. Readings will be
a good 40-50 degrees colder on Friday compared to the 70s and 80s
the area has seen today. This cooler than normal temperature pattern
will persist into at least the first half of the weekend with
daytime highs Saturday in the 40s to low 50s and a healthy northwest
breeze. However, some sunshine is expected so this should help
mitigate the chilly conditions.

Northwest flow aloft will continue through the latter half of the
weekend into early next week. Another upper trough is progged to
crash onto the west coast by the middle of next week leading to
upper ridging locally. This will help to maintain dry conditions and
mild temperatures. We anticipate temperature readings through the
latter portion of the 7 day forecast will go back above normal.
However, where will readings actually end up is the big question.
NBM`s 25th-75th percentile range for high temperatures continue to
maintain a difference of about 8-15 degrees Tuesday through Thursday
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will continue to persist at all terminals the rest
of today into tonight. MVFR CIGs associated with light rain or
light snow will be possible at KPIR/KMBG as early as mid to late
evening tonight but will become more probable after midnight.
KABR/KATY will see MVFR CIGs closer to 12Z Friday. IFR CIGs may be
possible at times during the duration of the morning hours,
depending on the nature of the shower coverage. MVFR VSBYs could
also be possible depending on shower intensity. VFR conditions
will be possible once again, but not until late in this TAF cycle
and only at KABR/KPIR/KMBG with KATY hanging on to MVFR CIGs
through this forecast period.

Gusty southwest winds between 25-35 knots will be possible through
this afternoon. A switch in wind direction to the west and
northwest is expected at KPIR/KMBG by early this evening and will
remain gusty through the end of the period. KABR/KATY will see
that switch to the north to northwest after midnight into the
early morning hours on Friday. KATY will also have the possibility
of low level wind shear by mid evening tonight as a strong low
level jet punches into east central SD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for
     SDZ005>008-010-011-016>023-033>037-045-048-051.

MN...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Vipond
AVIATION...Vipond