331
FXUS63 KABR 230524 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1224 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Southerly winds increase Friday, with widespread 30-40 mph
  gusts expected during the afternoon. There is a roughly 10-30%
  chance for gusts to reach 45 mph or more over eastern South
  Dakota and western Minnesota.

- Warm conditions, strong winds, and dry vegetation will lead
  to elevated fire weather concerns across the entire forecast
  area Friday.

- On Friday, highs will reach the upper 70s to low 80s. These
  temperatures are 20-25 degrees above normal, and will approach
  record highs.

- Rain chances return Friday with a 20-40% chance of light
  scattered showers over northeastern SD and western MN.
  Additional chances for showers come Saturday along a cold
  front, where there is a 20-50% chance to see measurable rain
  over northeastern SD and western MN.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Updated discussion for the 06Z TAFs below.

UPDATE Issued at 1000 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

South-southeast breezes and mild temperatures will be the story
for the overnight hours, with well above normal low temperatures
expected. In fact, records for warmest low temperatures for
Friday morning are in jeopardy for much of the area. Expecting
lows in the 50s to near 60 degrees by sunrise Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 204 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

With an upper-level ridge overhead allowing a warm airmass to sit
overhead, abnormally warm temperatures will continue today and into
Friday. 850mb temperatures will range from the mid to upper teens
Celsius, above the 90th percentile for this time of year. This
translates to highs in the upper 70s to low 80s, which will approach
daily high records.

Southerly winds are increasing today due to a tightening pressure
gradient, and gusts will reach up to 20-30 miles per hour over much
of the forecast area this afternoon. The strongest gusts are
expected over parts of central and north central South Dakota, where
gusts up to 35 miles per hour will be possible. These winds will
help to create some elevated fire weather concerns over parts of
central and north central South Dakota this afternoon, with
Grassland Fire Danger reaching the High category.

Winds will increase further on Friday due to a low-level jet moving
up into the region, located over eastern South Dakota and western
Minnesota by the afternoon. The low-level jet is expected to reach
about 40-50 knots at 850mb, but the warm air advected into the
region at that level will help sustain a warm nose aloft. Therefore,
those strongest gusts will likely have trouble mixing to the
surface. Still, probabilities to hit 45 mile per hour reach between
10-30% over much of northeastern South Dakota (with an isolated area
up to 40%). With this in mind, confidence is not high enough for a
headline at this time, but a close eye will be kept on observations
through the event. As the low-level jet moves in, some scattered
rain showers will be possible over northeastern South Dakota and
western Minnesota. Little accumulation is expected out of these
showers. The strong winds will also push Grassland Fire Danger
Friday afternoon up to the High category across the forecast area,
and even a few areas of Very High possible. The southerly winds will
advect moisture into the region over the next couple of days,
bringing dew points up into the mid-50s. It is this moisture that
will keep minimum afternoon humidity between 35-50 percent and out
of Red Flag Warning Status.

A cold front is set to move through the region Saturday. Out ahead
of the front, showers will develop, mainly over northeastern South
Dakota and western Minnesota. Guidance has shown somewhat of a
easterly shift in the extent of the precipitation in the latest
forecast cycle. Therefore, probabilities have taken a bit of a dip,
and chances of a tenth of an inch are down to 10-30% in that area.
Even chances for measurable precipitation have fallen below 50% for
most of the forecast area. Directly behind the front, winds turn
northwesterly and increase. Gusts over central and north central
South Dakota have a 30-50% chance to reach or exceed Wind Advisory
criteria of 45 miles per hour. With the timing of the cold front
currently set to occur during the morning time frame, this means
that peak winds will also occur during the morning, decreasing as
the day continues and the front exits further east.

After the departure of the cold front, the region is set to cool
down closer to normal. 850mb temperatures will take a drastic drop
from the upper teens Celsius to the positive 2-5 Celsius range, just
below the median value for this time of year. Naturally, high
temperatures just below late October normals can be expected Sunday
and into next week (highs in the upper 40s to low 50s). An upper-
level low will move up into the region at the start of next week,
providing additional chances for precipitation. From Sunday through
Tuesday morning, latest probabilities for half an inch of
accumulation sit at around 20-50%, increasing as you move from north
to south. Heaviest precipitation is currently expected late Sunday
into early Monday. During that time frame, there is some signal for
portions of north central South Dakota to see sub-freezing
temperatures. Model profiles also show potential for saturation in
the DGZ and sub-freezing temperatures through the profile, creating
some chances for the first flurries of the season over north central
South Dakota Monday morning. The main caveat to this scenario is
that with cloud cover expected to be present, temperatures are most
likely a bit too low. The upper percentiles that temperatures may
trend towards are above freezing, so perhaps the flurries will hold
off for the time being. Either way, there is still a fair degree of
spread and uncertainty still with this system, and there is plenty
of time for timing, precip amounts, and precip type to come further
into focus.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR cigs are forecast through the TAF period. The main concern
is low-level wind shear (LLWS) expected to affect portions of
northeastern SD, affecting KABR/KATY through about ~13Z this
morning. The threat for LLWS returns for KABR/KATY this evening
into early Saturday morning. Otherwise light rain showers are
possible east of the James River mid morning through the
afternoon. Added in a Prob30 mention to KATY and left out the
rain mention for KABR for now due to low confidence. This may
need to be adjusted closer to time. No drop in cigs is forecast
with any rain shower. Southerly surface wind gusts from 25 to
35 kts are expected to develop across the region by mid/late
morning Friday and persist through late afternoon.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MMM
DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...MMM