451
FXUS63 KABR 061918
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
118 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog, possibly dense, is forecast to develop tonight, mainly
  east of the Missouri River valley, over into west central
  Minnesota, and maintain into Saturday morning before
  eventually dissipating.

- Temperatures Saturday through next Wednesday are forecast to
  warm up some 10 to 20 degrees above normal for early
  November, with highs in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 117 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

At 1 PM CST, skies are becoming a mix of sun and clouds. Fog has
burned off/lifted over much of the forecast area, with just a few
pockets of light fog continuing across the Missouri River valley
region. Temperatures have been trying to warm through the 30s into
the low 40s on southerly winds 5 to 15 mph.

Current satellite trends suggest all of the low clouds and fog will
be gone by sundown, allowing for a reset of the boundary layer for
later tonight. Mainly will be just dealing with some sct-bkn
mid/high clouds for the first few hours of the tonight period
forecast. Short term guidance brings the fog back again tonight,
mainly east river, including the development of fog over into west
central Minnesota prior to sunrise Saturday morning. Southwesterly
low level winds (0.5km) tonight do support a bit of a downslope wind
scenario in the lee of the Prairie Coteau, so expecting to see a
hole in the fog/low clouds (from subsidence) there in the lee of the
Coteau, surrounded by fog/low clouds. REFS probabilities for visby
down to or less than 0.5mi is in that 50-70 percent range over a
good chunk of eastern South Dakota and western Minnesota by sunrise
on Saturday.

No other notable changes showing up in the 7-day forecast. Still
looks dry through next Thursday. Still looks like a warm up this
weekend into Wednesday of next week. The next strong cold frontal
passage may be lining up for Wednesday or Wednesday night of next
week. Fire Weather-wise, breezy west-northwest winds across the
northern tier counties on Saturday, coupled with afternoon humidity
values dropping to around 40-45 percent is expected to bump
Grassland Fire Danger indexes up to moderate to high, particularly
over north central South Dakota.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1138 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Conditions are improving throughout the region. Fog is burning
off, and low clouds are being eroded away by daytime
mixing/heating. Conditions at all four terminals is still
MVFR/IFR in fog and low clouds, but within the next 1-3 hours,
expect VFR conditions to return to all four terminals.

Guidance says sub-VFR visby in fog and/or low clouds will return
later tonight, with KMBG holding lowest probability of this
occurring, while KPIR, KABR and KATY maintain much higher
probabilities for MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys in low clouds and fog. By
the end of the TAF valid period on Saturday, conditions should
be once again improving toward VFR. Going ahead and placing
lower visibility in fog and low stratus in as prevailing
conditions overnight/Saturday morning given the amount of
confidence in this happening.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...10