031
FXUS63 KABR 182105
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
305 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow of 1" or less will remain possible through the
  evening hours across far northeastern SD and west central MN.

- Winds gusting 35 to 45 mph out of the northwest, along with
  locally higher gusts, will continue to slowly diminish through
  the evening hours. Winds will increase out of the north-
  northwest on Thursday, with gusts of 25-35 mph.

- The combination falling and blowing snow, along strong winds
  will continue to lead to reductions in visibility at times
  through this evening, especially in open areas across far
  northeastern SD and west central MN.

- Very High Grassland Fire Danger Index values remain this
  afternoon over portions of south central SD, where limited rain
  fell yesterday.

- Near to below normal temperatures will continue through this
  weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 305 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Winter Weather Advisory continues for far northeastern SD into
west central MN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 218 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

The surface low to our northeast has moved from our far northeastern
3 counties at 10Z to near Sauk Center and Todd County, MN at 20Z.
Winds behind the low are only slowly diminishing. Winds out of
the wnw are gusting 30-45mph over much of central SD and closer to
the low over west central MN. Elsewhere winds were still gusting
40- 55mph. The axis of moderate to heavy snow that had been set up
from around and east of Eureka through Aberdeen has shifted to
east of Britton through Ortonville. Light snow remains east of
this stronger band, with the main visibility restriction being
from light falling snow and the snow that has already fallen being
blown around. Blowing snow will continue to be a concern for the
rest of the daytime hours today, transitioning to more low level
drifting snow with less lofting/impact to visibilities this
evening through the day Thursday. Fire weather concerns remain
over south central SD, where little to no precipitation has fallen
over the past few weeks.

The 500mb low over MN will shift east and north to over Ontario and
northern MN Thursday night into Friday morning. This will help keep
the mention of light snow over eastern SD/west central MN into our
far northeastern counties through Thursday night.

At the surface the low over northeastern CO will move across KS
overnight through Thursday morning before heading north Friday
across Lower Michigan. Most if not all of the precipitation should
stay south of our area, clipping mainly Jones/Lyman Counties. Over
northeastern SD/west central MN, the chance of light snow will
linger into Thursday night, assisted by a series of 500mb waves.
Little to no accumulation is expected

A surface high over southern Alberta/Saskatchewan will continue to
extend a weak ridge across mainly north central SD, and eventually
our eastern counties later Friday into the upcoming weekend. Mainly
dry weather is expected Friday through at least Tuesday of next
week, with only a 15% chance of light snow Tuesday night. Given the
origin region of our high, cold air will remain in place. Confidence
is higher than normal for temperatures through the weekend, with the
25-75th NBM percentiles mainly within 5 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1128 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Mainly VFR under dry weather should continue at PIR/MBG, with
winds gusting 33-40kts diminishing to less than 30kts by 00Z
Thursday. The exception to the VFR conditions will be 09-17Z
Thursday, when VFR to MVFR ceilings are expected.

At ABR and ATY, winds gusting around 40kts will diminish to around
35kts by 00Z Thursday but remain in the 20-30kt range through the
morning Thursday. The ongoing snow is shifting east, but snow on
the ground and strong winds is still creating blowing and drifting
with reductions in visibility that will linger through the daytime
hours. Mainly MVFR ceilings will continue through the next 24
hours.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for SDZ008.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MNZ039-
     046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...06
DISCUSSION...06
AVIATION...06