089
FXUS63 KABR 251719 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1219 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The next round of rain arrives this afternoon into Saturday
  morning. There is a 50-60% chance to see a quarter of an inch
  or more through Saturday morning east of the James River.

- Active pattern continues with additional chances for rain
  arriving Monday and continuing through Tuesday. There is a
  50-70% chance to see a half inch of rain or more across the
  forecast area through that time frame.

- Expect temperatures near normal for the next few days, with
  highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Signs point towards a
  cooldown by mid-week next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Aviation discussion below has been updated in accordance with
the 18Z TAF issuance.

UPDATE Issued at 923 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Visibilities have begun to improve this morning, but a few areas
remain at a quarter of a mile or lower, particularly over
central South Dakota. Conditions over Brown and Spink Counties
have improved, so the Dense Fog Advisory has been canceled early
in those locations. Expecting the fog to linger for the next
couple of hours elsewhere, so the Dense Fog Advisory will remain
in place for all counties west of Brown and Spink through 11 AM
CDT / 10 AM MDT this morning.

UPDATE Issued at 620 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Fog continues to spread west this morning. Added Lyman and
Buffalo to the Dense Fog Advisory. Will continue to monitor fog
as it moves west river, but at the moment lights are still
visible on most webcams indicating the presence of some fog but
not dense fog.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 104 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

As of 1 AM CDT, temperatures around the area are in the 50s to low
60s with winds out of the east to southeast at 10 mph or less. The
main question for today`s forecast will be when and where drizzle
turns into rain. Low stratus/fog will continue through today and
much of Saturday.

A shortwave will make its way into the region today moving generally
west to east and this will bring the forcing that transitions us
from drizzle to rain. Looking at model soundings, the NAM brings
things in around noon for areas west of the James River. This is
faster than the RAP and HRRR, and more moist than the GFS. These
other models bring the rain in this evening. Precipitation will move
into south central SD, moving west and north into north central SD
before moving back east to cover eastern SD. Either scenario has
precipitation lasting through Saturday morning, moving east and out
of the area during the afternoon. Chance of more than a quarter of
an inch is 50-60% east of the James River, between 30 and 50% west
of the James River to a line between Eureka and Chamberlain, and
less than 20% across central SD. Our next chance of rain will be
late Sunday night/early Monday morning through at least Tuesday
evening as a low level low moves across the ND/SD border.
Precipitation amounts with this event are quite a bit higher. Chance
of more than half an inch in 24 hours between Monday and Tuesday
mornings is 50-70% between the Missouri and Prairie Coteau/Sisseton
Hills.

Temperatures through the weekend will be right around to slightly
above average before falling back to slightly below average for next
work week. Winds this afternoon across north central SD will gust up
to around 30 mph.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

MVFR to IFR stratus deck is in place this afternoon. These
conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period. Rain
showers will move into the forecast area late this afternoon into
this evening. Showers will begin just east of the Missouri River,
and confidence is not high enough to include any mention of the
showers at KPIR or KMBG at this time. Showers will spread eastward
through the evening, continuing over northeastern South Dakota and
western Minnesota through at least Saturday morning. A stray flash
of lightning or two may be possible, but generally just expecting
rain showers. Visibility reductions down to MVFR levels will be
possible under the heaviest showers along with the persistence of
the MVFR to IFR ceilings.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BC
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...BC