405
FXUS63 KABR 231338 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
838 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 40-50% chance for showers and thunderstorms during
  the day today across south central SD, expanding over north
  central SD to northeastern SD/west central MN this evening
  into the overnight.

- There is a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) across central SD
  and a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) over much of
  northeastern SD this evening. The main concerns will be golf
  ball size hail, wind gusts exceeding 60 mph, lightning, and
  brief heavy rainfall.

- There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) of severe weather
  Monday night. Threat include one inch hail and 60 mph.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 835 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Updated the forecast this morning by reducing pops into the
early afternoon hours. Showers and storms over south central SD
continues to push southeast, with limited development further
north. Shortwave activity in eastern Montana is our next focal
point for convection over ND late this afternoon. If these
storms develop, the could track southeast into the CWA mainly
after 0Z. Will update the forecast further once 12Z data comes
in.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 119 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

As of 1 AM CDT, temperatures around the area are in the 50s with
winds out of the northeast to east at less than 10 mph. Winds are
expected to move around to be out of the south to southeast after
sunrise. There is a 35-50% chance of some showers in central SD
early this morning which will move east across the forecast area
throughout the day.

Our next chance for precipitation will be today with showers
starting in south central SD this morning. The NAM Nest is the most
excited about this event as it keeps showers and storms in south
central SD until mid afternoon while most other CAMs have a bit of a
dry spell during the late morning into the afternoon. The next round
moves into north central SD later in the evening, generally after 7
PM CDT. These will move in a generally east to southeast direction,
spreading into northeast SD through the late evening and into the
overnight hours, potentially even into the early morning hours for
east central SD (around Watertown). There is a Slight risk (level 2
out of 5) across central SD and a Marginal risk (level 1 out of 5)
across most of northeast SD with main hazards of 1.5 inch hail, wind
gusts of 60-70 mph, and brief heavy rainfall. MLCAPE Sunday evening
is around 1000-1200 J/kg, increasing to about 1500 J/kg Monday,
where there is also a Marginal Risk with hazards of 1 inch hail and
60 mph wind gusts. Storms Monday look to last into the early morning
hours of Tuesday. An area of high pressure moves in for the middle
of the week and storm chances return for the end of the week into
next weekend.

Temperatures still remain around average for this time of year with
highs in the upper 70s to 80s. Not really anything in the way of
smoke is expected for the next couple days. Winds across south
central SD could be a little stronger today, gusting up to 30 mph at
times.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 620 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will prevail today except in or near heavier
showers or thunderstorms. Morning activity will occur around
Pierre. This evening through tonight, showers and thunderstorms
are expected to move into north central SD and progress
southeast or east-southeast from there. There is low confidence
in timing as most hi-res cams have slowed the approach, pushing
it off to after 0z.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...17
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...20