518
FXUS63 KABR 301121 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
621 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will be
  possible this afternoon and evening. Less than a tenth of an
  inch of rain is expected, with localized areas under the
  heaviest showers potentially seeing above a tenth of an inch.
  No severe weather is expected.

- High temperatures will be around 10 degrees below normal today
  and Friday, with highs in the 50s. Slight increase to near-
  normal over the weekend, with highs in the 60s to low 70s both
  Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 620 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 12Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Some light rain showers over eastern South Dakota are exiting early
this morning. Over the past 24 hours, MRMS estimates indicate that
most area received less than a tenth of an inch, with localized
areas seeing around a quarter of an inch. Similar expectations are
in place for additional rain showers today, (discussed further in
the paragraph below) as most areas are expected to see less than a
tenth of an inch. As showers clear out this morning, high pressure
to the northwest will briefly extend influence into the region
before giving way to a weak low this afternoon. There is some minor
signal for some fog this morning in model guidance, mainly located
over south central South Dakota. Expecting near-full RH recovery
this morning over that area, so wind will likely be the limiting
factor for fog development this morning. At the moment expecting
winds to stay just high enough (5-10 miles per hour) to disperse any
developing fog. However, should a lull in winds manifest, some
patchy fog may still be possible this morning.

A very similar setup to yesterday`s is expected this afternoon as a
jet streak in the entrance region of an upper-level trough will once
again provide lift over the area and produce some light rain
showers. Fairly strong low-level lapse rates also will aid in
convective development in the afternoon and evening. A capping
inversion in the 600-500mb layer will limit the growth of these
showers, but the updraft is expected to be just deep enough to
produce an isolated thunderstorm or two. MUCAPE is highest over
northeastern South Dakota and western Minnesota, leading to that
area having the best chances to see lightning in the afternoon to
early evening. No severe weather is expected with any thunderstorms.

Below normal temperatures (highs in the 50s to low 60s) continue for
the next couple of days with the trough sitting overhead. By the
weekend, the trough is expected to drift east and give roughly 10
dam of height rise over from Friday to Saturday. This will bring
normal to just above normal temperatures to the forecast area, with
highs reaching up into the upper 60s to low 70s. Beyond today`s
showers, limited chances for precipitation through the weekend
barring some potential light rain developing along a cold front
moving through Saturday night.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 620 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail during the next 24 hours.
Additional -SHRA/-TSRA coverage is expected mainly between 17Z
and 02Z of the TAF valid period, including some brief MVFR
vsbys/cigs in heavier showers/storms this afternoon. Unlike
Wednesday, boundary layer winds on Thursday will be a bit
stronger (northwest winds 10 to 20 knots sustained, gusting to
25-30 knots) outside of any convectively driven wind gusts.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...10