387
FXUS63 KABR 191941
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
141 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High temperatures will be in the 40s and 50s through next
  Tuesday, which is around 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Warmest
  temperatures will be this weekend.

- Turning markedly colder starting next Wednesday, as temperatures
  tumble into the teens at night and 20s and 30s during the day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 139 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

At 1 PM CST, skies were a mix of sun (central South Dakota) and
clouds (north central/northeast South Dakota and west central
Minnesota). Been mixing out low clouds and patches of (dense at
times) fog today underneath what had been a blanket of earlier
mid/high clouds. Temperatures have been warming out of the 30s
through the 40s, with a few locations (central South Dakota)
starting to run up into the 50s. Except for the far western (west
river) counties where a west-northwest wind has developed early this
afternoon, winds continue out of the south around 10 to 20 mph with
some occasionally higher gusts.

The wind-shift responsible for turning the wind around to a west-
northwest direction will make it`s way over into Minnesota during
the evening hours, with an area of surface high pressure building
into the region behind it overnight. This high pressure is forecast
to stick around Thursday and Thursday night, yielding dry, light
wind conditions, and temperatures a little bit cooler for Thursday,
with highs only expected in the mid 40s to around 50 degrees (about
5 to 10 degrees cooler than today`s expected highs, but still
roughly 5 degrees above climo normals for mid-November).

The long term period is a split flow pattern, where the northern
branch jet-stream is a low amplitude upper level ridge over the
northwest/north central CONUS from Friday through next Monday. There
is general agreement amongst model camps for a longwave trof to work
through the northern branch jet-stream and knock the ridge down
across southern Canada and the northern plains from Monday night
through the end of the forecast period. This upper level trof is
expected to drop and drag a potent cold front through the CWA
somewhere between 12Z Tuesday and 12Z Wednesday. With an upper level
closed low drifting out of the desert southwest into the deep south
Saturday through Monday, there is some doubt over whether any Gulf
moisture will make it past the southern U.S. system, and be
available to generate WAA-zone forced light precipitation (over this
CWA) with this northern branch system Tuesday/Wednesday. Suffice it
to say, the change in airmasses with this cold fropa next week will
be quite noticeable. Instead of high temperatures being in the 40s
and 50s, highs will only be in the 20s and 30s starting next
Wednesday. Low temperatures are expected to transition from 20s and
30s down into the teens (possibly single digits) above zero.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1108 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

KPIR should be VFR over the next 24 hours. KABR is coming out of
IFR/MVFR cigs and should see a mix of sct-bkn MVFR cigs this
afternoon into early this evening before bkn-ovc MVFR cigs return
for the rest of tonight into Thursday morning. KMBG and KATY are
probably stuck in some form of IFR bkn-ovc cig for much of now
through 00Z. Then, there could be a period of partial clearing and
MVFR/VFR conditions this evening before these two terminals return
to some form of MVFR/IFR cig for the rest of tonight into Thursday
morning. All the while, there is a cold front moving through all
four terminals during the 24 hour TAF valid period, turning
southerly winds around to the northwest.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...10