427
FXUS63 KABR 031944
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
244 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow will continue across the region (especially northern SD) into
  the overnight hours, with additional accumulations from 3 to 9
  inches possible. Lesser amounts further south.

- Northwest wind gusts increase to between 25 and 35 mph tonight
  through Saturday. Visibility reductions at times in falling
  snow, but significant impacts from low visibility and blowing
  snow are not expected due to the heavy/wet nature of snow.

- Below normal temperatures remaining in place through the beginning
  of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Snow continues over central/north central SD, but area web cams
reveal there has been some melting/compaction going on as temps inch
closer to 32 degrees and also thanks to the early April sun angle.
Across the eastern CWA, much of the precip has already pushed
northward into ND and there may not be much more in the way of
accumulations (maybe minor accums) during the daylight hours.

The 500mb low is centered near the Black Hills and is forecast to
move eastward across SD tonight. Noting the dry slot potential
across the eastern CWA which could cut off some of the redevelopment
of snow. Latest model QPF data, along with HREF/REFS mean composite
reflectivity seems to have pushed the overnight snowfall northward a
bit across far northern SD or even more into southern ND. Starting
to have doubts if we reach our forecast totals if we see this
northward shift, or at the very least we may be more towards the
lower end of our advertised snowfall total ranges. Having said that,
there are some hi-res models that do try to redevelop snow a bit
further south across northern SD tonight, and if that happens there
should be some accumulations due to the fact that it`s nighttime and
temps will drop a couple more degrees.

As for headlines, with minimal impacts noted across the southern
CWA, decided to cancel the Winter Weather Advisory for Jones, Lyman
and Buffalo counties. Further north, downgraded the Winter Storm
Warning to a Winter Weather Advisory from Stanley county eastward to
Spink. Everything else remains the same over northern SD into west
central MN. Although, closely watching a band of heavy snow across
Haakon county just on the northern end of the 500mb low. If this
were to translate eastward across central SD over the next few hours
as the low pushes east, some moderate snow accumulations are
possible.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

There is lower confidence in the aviation forecast over the next
24 hours based on off and on precipitation rotating across the
region, with drier air moving into ABR/ATY. While precipitation
has switched over the -sn at most locations, light freezing rain
remains at ATY with temperatures of 30F. Temperatures just above
the surface will only increase 1-2F, but cooler air aloft will
result in precipitation mixing with -sn 21-23Z and becoming all
snow by 23Z. The chance of snow will come to an end just after 12Z
at PIR/MBG. However, increasing winds with gusts of 20-30kts will
result in drifting snow through the morning. The impacts from the
increasing winds will depend of the amount and type of snow that
accumulates.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM CDT Saturday for SDZ006>008-011.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for SDZ019>023.

     Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ Saturday for
     SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for SDZ018.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ Saturday for
     SDZ033>037.

MN...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM CDT Saturday for MNZ039.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for MNZ046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TMT
AVIATION...06