761
FXUS63 KABR 072011
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
211 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild air remains through the rest of the weekend with above normal
temperatures in the 30s and 40s east to the 50s to low 60s west.
Above average temperatures continue into the work week.


- There is a slight chance (15-20%) for some light rain along the ND
border Monday afternoon, but confidence remains low. There is also a
chance (20-40%) for some precipitation Wednesday afternoon into
Thursday but confidence on precipitation type is low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

As of 2 PM CST, winds are out of the south to southwest between 10
and 20 mph with some gusts of close to 35 mph, highest over
northeast SD. Temperatures are 15 to 20 degrees above average, 30s
to low 40s east of the James River and upper 40s west of the James
River. There is some signal among some of the high-res models for
fog in the Missouri River valley tonight. Confidence is low on if
and how far visibilities will drop, so left it out of the forecast
for now.

We`ve got some good WAA over the region today bringing us much
warmer temperatures with our southwesterly winds. Winds will switch
back to the northwest as a front moves through today. Winds will
become more westerly Sunday, through Monday, and give us another
shot of WAA to raise temperatures even more (15 degrees above
average east of the James River, closer to 30 degrees above average
west of the Missouri River for Sunday). In fact, the whole 7-day
forecast looks to be above average, although not as extremely as
Sunday, mellowing out to around 10-15 degrees above. Did nudge
Monday highs up just a smidgen.

There is a chance for some light rain showers along the ND border
Monday afternoon, with potentially some snow mixing in for far
northeastern SD so added in some very light PoPs (mainly over far
northeast SD into west central MN). Little to no accumulation is
expected. The best chance for some precipitation during the period
looks to be Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning as a
relatively weak low moves across southern SD/northern NE. NBM PoPs
have been increasing the last few runs, now sitting in the 20-40%
range. Things start to move out after sunrise Thursday. P-types are
a bit uncertain at this time. The ensemble forecast is showing snow
or rain/snow mix as the dominant p-type during the vast majority of
the event. However, temperatures rise a fair ways above freezing
during the day with little to no saturation in the column (based on
model soundings) so if precip did reach the ground, the p-type
should be rain. We will keep an eye on this in the coming days and
watch to see if more model members warm up or if overall highs cool
down.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1120 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail through the TAF period.
There are some indications of light fog to impact KMBG and KPIR
overnight, but confidence is not high enough to include in the
TAFs.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...13