741
FXUS63 KABR 012119
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
319 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 40-60% chance of precipitation Monday afternoon into
  Tuesday morning across South Dakota. Snow will be the main
  weather type over northeastern South Dakota, with a wintry mix
  of rain, freezing rain, and snow over central South Dakota. Snow
  accumulations around an inch or less.

- Mild air moving in Wednesday/Thursday with highs reaching the 40s
  and 50s by Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

Stratus/stratocumulus still covering much of the CWA this afternoon
except for the far southwest CWA. Expecting these clouds will be
tough to erode overnight as low cloud cover products and soundings
indicate as much. Because of the clouds, opted to blend in some
warmer-end guidance for lows tonight. Models also suggesting fog
potential over western/central SD (including the western CWA)
wherever the edge of the stratus deck sets up tonight. Inserted fog
potential into the grids/forecast over central SD later tonight into
Monday morning.

Will then turn attention to the low pressure system moving southeast
across MT into western SD on Monday. It still appears there will be
pockets of light snowfall/snow showers moving southeast across the
Dakotas Monday into Monday night, best chances (40-60%) showing up
in our CWA Monday afternoon/evening. Forecast still for around 1
inch or less of snow accumulation. NBM probability of 24-hr snowfall
greater than 1 inch ending at 12Z Tuesday is around 25% or less
across the CWA, highest in the Leola hills region. Large clustering
in the WPC Super Ensemble Plumes generally below an inch, with some
outliers between 1 and 2 inches. So, pretty confident in a minor
accumulation event. With temperatures aloft a bit more mild over the
western CWA, will have to watch where the rain/snow line sets up as
we do see potential for light freezing rain with perhaps a light
glaze accumulation.

Next highlight is the mild air overspreading the Northern Plains
Wednesday and especially into Thursday. The upper ridging over the
western CONUS pushes eastward enough to allow for a mild Pacific-
origin air mass to enter the Dakotas. By 00Z Friday, Grand Ensemble
shows 925mb temps from +4C (east) to +12C (southwest). Given the
warmth of these temps aloft, it would appear we`re in line for
widespread 40s across the CWA on Thursday, with even some 50s over
the west/southwestern CWA.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1132 AM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

MVFR/IFR CIGs will continue across the region through much of the
TAF period.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TMT
AVIATION...TMT