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Forecast Discussion for Aberdeen, SD
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136 FXUS63 KABR 011720 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1220 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a 20% chance of light showers Saturday afternoon and evening over northeastern SD and west central MN. Little to no accumulation is expected - Winds out of the northwest will gust 30-40mph Monday afternoon. There is a 20% chance of winds gusting over 45 mph west of the James River Monday afternoon. - High temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday of next week will be around 10 degrees below normal. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1219 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026 Other than a few short periods with the chance of precipitation below 30%, we have a mainly dry forecast over the next 7 days. The 17Z surface map shows high pressure centered across the James River Valley up through eastern ND. This area of high pressure will sink to NE and southeastern SD by 06Z, with winds shifting out of the south but remaining light around 10kts or less. Winds will increase out of the west to southwest during the day Saturday behind the exiting high and ahead of low pressure currently set up along the Alberta/Saskatchewan border. The surface low will sink southeast across ND and northwestern SD Saturday. Highs Saturday will be in the mid 60s to mid 70s, lowest over the Prairie Coteau of northeastern SD. There is a 20% chance of light showers Saturday afternoon and evening over northeastern SD and west central MN. Little to no accumulation is expected. The low will exit to our southeast shortly after 06Z Sunday, putting an end to any lingering light precipitation. High pressure will briefly build in Sunday - mainly to our south. The main concern will be with the next low over southern Canada (southern Manitoba) Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening. The low will tract east across Ontario Monday while dropping a cold front across SD Monday. We have around a 20% chance of rain showers Monday morning. Winds out of the west will shift out of the northwest in the morning and gust 30 to near 40 mph. There is a 20% chance of winds gusting over 45 mph west of the James River Monday afternoon. The strongest cold air advection will be over far northern SD and west central MN. We`ll continue to monitor the latest trends, as blowing dust may be possible across areas north of Pierre - where less precipitation has fallen over the last week. Cooler air will move back in Monday, and especially Monday night through Thursday - with mainly northwesterly flow at 500mb. Lows will again be near freezing. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1209 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions will be continuing through the day and tonight. Some mid level clouds will be possible over central and northeastern South Dakota into the afternoon as scattered cumulus develop. These clouds will be dissipating during the evening. Winds will stay below 15 mph over most terminals through the afternoon, though KATY could see gusts below 20 mph at times during the afternoon. Winds will calm through the evening and into tonight as they become southerly before picking up again during the morning. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...06 AVIATION...12 |
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NWS Aberdeen, SD (ABR) Office Forecast Discussions.
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