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Forecast Discussion for Aberdeen, SD
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105 FXUS63 KABR 271708 AAA AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1108 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures return to below normal values through Friday, with highs 5 to 20 degrees below average. - There is a 30-50% chance of light snow over central South Dakota early Thursday morning into Thursday night, with a 25% chance of 1" of snow or more west of a line from Miller to Mobridge. - There is a 40% chance of mainly light snow Saturday through Saturday night. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1107 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 Updated for the 18z Aviation discussion. UPDATE Issued at 951 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 The sky cover has been adjusted over central South Dakota. Otherwise, the ongoing forecast remains on track with few adjustments expected. We`ll be monitoring the radar returns over eastern SD/ND and watching surface observations and webcams to see if any light snow or flurries are hitting the ground. A mainly dry forecast continues through Wednesday evening for our forecast area. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/... Issued at 253 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 Northwest winds remain breezy early this morning across the east as the upper trough and jet streak continue to affect the region. As the trough shifts east this morning and sfc high pressure builds in from the northwest, expect winds to diminish. The high will remain in place tonight through Wed afternoon. Dry conditions are expected with below normal temperatures. Highs today and Wednesday are expected to range from the single digits in the east to the 20s in central SD. However, there is more than a 5 degree spread in the 25th to 75th on the NBM, so confidence is not high in any particular location. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 253 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 Wednesday night starts the long term with northwesterly upper level flow still in place over the region. This is expected to be the dominant flow pattern for the duration of the period. For the past few days we have been watching a trough coming down out of Canada for Friday that will bring a chance of snow to the region starting Thursday. The area of highest snowfall has now moved farther west and the chance of more than an inch of accumulation now less than 10%. The next chance for snow will be Saturday into Sunday morning. This had been a shortwave previously, but models now show more of a fully formed low pressure system, although not a terribly strong one. The chance of more than an inch of snow accumulation is still about 20% or less, but the area of higher chance has moved a bit east and now covers more of northeast SD. The rest of the forecast looks relatively dry. Temperatures for the rest of the work week are expected to be below average before we get some warmer air and bring temps back up to normal. Friday morning still looks to be fairly chilly with widespread wind chills of -20 to -25 degrees east of the MO River. While winds during the period are expected to be relatively light, Saturday could get a little more gusty as the cold front moves through from the low, bringing gusts of about 25 mph to areas east of the James River valley, especially around the Prairie Coteau. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1107 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions are expected to continue through the rest of today and through the night. There will be some stronger northwest winds gusting at KATY this afternoon for a few hours before calming down during the evening. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...12 SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM...13 AVIATION...12 |
Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS Aberdeen, SD (ABR) Office Forecast Discussions.
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