533
FXUS63 KABR 092327
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
527 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Sprinkles/flurries or very light rain/snow potential lingers for
  a few hours this evening. Water equivalent amounts very light
  and remaining under 0.10in for most areas.

- Chances for precipitation (20-40%) Wednesday night into
  Thursday. Confidence on precipitation type is low.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 527 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

The forecast has been adjusted only slightly for the light rain
falling over mainly north central SD at the current time. Radar
returns are also showing up over far northeastern SD into west
central MN, but will less evidence of precipitation making it to
the ground based on area webcams. The ongoing forecast remains on
track.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 106 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

At 1 PM CST, skies are mostly cloudy to overcast and winds are out
of the north. A cold front has slid completely out of the CWA (now
south of the area), but temperatures have not started cooling down
yet. In fact, they have warmed up into the 40s across most of the
region.

Tonight, there could still be areas of sprinkles or very light rain
occurring early this evening mainly across the southern/southeastern
half of the CWA, before the lingering low/mid-level zone of forcing
attached to this recent cold fropa now south of the CWA and mid-
level lift attached to the circulation working through the region
departs. Surface high pressure will be building down across the
region. Enough low level CAA should be glancing the eastern third of
forecast zones sufficiently enough that low level lapse rates
steepen to a point where some gusts 25 to 30 knots will be possible.

The surface high eventually settles in over Minnesota late in the
day Tuesday into Tuesday night, allowing for low level return flow
southerly winds to develop across the CWA Tuesday night.

Overall, though, even with low level CAA tonight into Tuesday
morning, temperatures are expected to be near to above normal for
early February.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 106 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

During the day on Tuesday, the steering flow splits into two
along the west coast. By late Wednesday night, energy emerges out of
this split flow pattern and is progged to move out across the
central/northern plains. There could be some precipitation from this
low pressure system extending up into eastern South Dakota (the
southeastern forecast zones of this CWA). Right now, the probability
of 0.05 inches or more of water equivalent precipitation over those
southeastern forecast zones is 20-35%. So, not a ton of confidence
in precipitation chances for this scenario right now. And, if
precipitation does materialize, it looks like it would not be all
that much.

The rest of the period contains details of how the atmosphere kicks
out that split flow pattern east-southeast over the CONUS and
replaces it with a west-coast upper level longwave trof. Over this
CWA, that should translate into a period of dry conditions under
west-northwest flow aloft that eventually flattens out into zonal
flow over the weekend, before gradually taking on that southwest
flow look-and-feel at the end of the period as the west coast upper
level longwave trof establishes.

During the extended period, not seeing any significant cold air
intrusions. There will be a few periods of weak WAA/CAA oscillation,
but overall, it looks like temperatures should remain on the mild
side through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 527 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Expect VFR conditions to remain over the next 24 hours for most
locations. The main exception will be ATY and possibly ABR after
09Z, where MVFR ceilings may push across west central MN and into
eastern SD. At this point we have little to no cloud cover in the
forecast, with most of these clouds staying to the east. We`ll
continue to monitor the trends however, as confidence is low just
a scattered sky from 10-18Z Tuesday.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...06
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...06