070
FXUS63 KABR 070533 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1133 PM CST Thu Nov 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A wintry mix of precipitation is expected Friday night through
  early Saturday afternoon. Light snow is mainly expected over
  northeastern South Dakota and mainly rain expected over central
  South Dakota. There is a 25% chance of 1" or more snow over
  northeastern SD.

- Winds out of the west to northwest will gust 35 to near 50 mph late
  Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon over central SD.

- High temperatures Saturday through Monday will be mainly in the
  30s, or 10-15 degrees below normal. Wind chills in the single
  digits will be possible Saturday night and Sunday nights.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1125 PM CST Thu Nov 6 2025

Aviation discussion updated below for the 06Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 837 PM CST Thu Nov 6 2025

Skies have started to clear out across the CWA with just a few
patches of high clouds remaining. Temperatures in the James River
valley are still rather light around 5 knots or less, thus temps
have fallen into the mid/upper 30s. Brown county has some of the
coldest temps in the CWA currently. Therefore, had to drop lows a
few degrees. Although, expect temps to steady out or even rise a
few degrees when slightly stronger westerly winds kick in later
tonight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 406 PM CST Thu Nov 6 2025

It`s been a cloudy day as a 1001mb surface low transitioned west to
east across the state, currently over far northeastern SD. There is
a secondary low over southeastern Saskatchewan and northwestern SD.
This feature will slide southeast and set up a west to east oriented
cold front near the ND/SD border by 12Z Friday, making a difficult
temperature forecast for Friday. Temperatures will fall into the 40s
overnight. While temperatures remain in the 40s over much of the
area Friday afternoon, they will rebound into the 50s over south
central SD - where the cold front is both slower to get to and has
limited influence due to another nearing area of low pressure. The
cold front will also bring a 20 percent chance of light rain to
portions of far northeastern South Dakota Friday morning.

By 00Z Saturday we`ll have 1 surface low over far southwestern SD or
eastern WY, and another low/clipper over southwestern Saskatchewan.
The southern low will track across NE Friday night, with the
northern low moving weakening as it moves over north central SD
(near MBG) by 12Z Saturday, and quickly exiting over southeastern SD
by 18Z. The scattered nature to the onset of precipitation is
resulting in only moderate confidence in our current timing. Still,
most light rain will be west of the MO River through 02Z Saturday
before moving east-southeast. The highest precipitation is expected
over our southern counties and south. Total precipitation amount of
0.03 to 0.15", with only a 35% chance of 0.10" or greater south of a
line from Redfield to Watertown. The chance for 1" or more snow has
also diminished, down to near 25% and mainly over elevated and
grassy surfaces Friday night into Saturday morning over northeastern
South Dakota, mainly east of a line from Aberdeen to Clark.

The rain/snow/wintry mix line is starting to become a bit more
defined from around Eureka and Selby on the north end of our
forecast area, to Redfield and Clark on the southern end. While it
still looks like a mainly rain/snow event, we can`t completely rule
out an hour or 2 of light freezing rain around daybreak Saturday.
Little to no icing is expected at this time.

Along with a wintry mix, we`ll also be monitoring for strong winds.
Winds out of the north to northwest will gust 35 to near 50 mph late
Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon over central SD. The
strongest winds are expected west of a line from Pierre to
Chamberlain. There is around a 30% chance of winds greater than 45
mph over portions of Jones and Lyman Counties.

High temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s Saturday through
Monday, with wind chills in the single digits and teens Saturday
night and again Sunday night.

Look for dry weather to continue Saturday night through next
Thursday. A warming trend is forecast, with highs mainly in the 50s
Tuesday through Thursday (with some low 60s over central SD Tuesday
afternoon).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1125 PM CST Thu Nov 6 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Low-level wind shear will continue to affect the region into early
Friday morning and continued mention of this for all TAF sites.
Still expecting MVFR CIGs to drop south into northern SD Friday
morning, and still looking rather difficult for these lower clouds
to reach KPIR. There may be some light precipitation associated
with the lower cloud cover across northeast SD, but with low
confidence, will keep mention out of KABR TAF for the time being
and continue to monitor. West-northwest surface winds through the
overnight will gradually switch to the north during the day
Friday, before eventually becoming east to southeast again by 06Z
Friday.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
DISCUSSION...06
AVIATION...TMT