016
FXUS63 KABR 240631
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
131 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming trend in place through mid-week, with temperatures
persistently above average today through the end of the 7-day
forecast. Highs range in the upper 70s to upper 80s throughout the
period. Monday and Tuesday could see highs reaching or exceeding the
90F degree mark (15 to 20 degrees above normal) in some places.

- Some isolated showers and thunderstorms could develop and move
into portions of east central SD this evening.

- Daily isolated to scattered thunderstorm chances (20-40 percent
chances) may be taking shape as early as Wednesday of this upcoming
week, persisting through Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

As a warm front passes through the area this morning, warm air will
be making its way into SD. This warm air will help temperatures
increase over the next couple of days. Today will be 5-10 degrees
warmer than normal, with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. As the
warm air keeps pushing in, temperatures Monday and Tuesday will be
15 to 20 degrees warmer than normal, with the chance for highs to
get into the upper 80s to low 90s.

A low level jet is forecast to set up over southeastern SD today.
This jet could help with the development of showers and storms over
eastern SD. While the jet will stay mostly out of central and
northeastern SD, parts of east central SD (mainly Deuel & Hamlin
county) could get clipped by the edge of the jet. With the warm,
moist air moving in over eastern SD as well as a bit of instability,
the jet could help develop some scattered showers and storms over
east central SD during the evening. The high-res models mainly
forecast the storms not reaching up far enough to get into east
central SD, but there is still a chance something could either form
or move into east central SD. Monday is forecast to have a similar
environment, and could see some isolated showers or storms over
parts of south central SD. Currently, the chances are lower and
severe risk is not there, but an eye will need to be kept on
upcoming model runs to see if things change.

A blocky upper-level ridge/split flow will be starting to build over
the midwest Monday and Tuesday and then is forecast to sit there
through the rest of the week. During that time, an upper-level
trough will be developing over the Rockies, which will help a
surface trough to develop over WY/MT/CO. The models also show some
slightly higher pressure developing over the Great Lakes, which will
cause a slight pressure gradient over SD and some stronger winds to
develop aloft over western and central SD, kinda like a low level
jet. This could then help more isolated showers and storms to
develop Tuesday and Wednesday. The highest chances for more rain and
storms are currently forecast to happen during the last couple of
days in the work week. Models still vary on the location, intensity,
and timing of these showers and storm chances, so it is something to
keep our eyes on. Cold air is forecast to start pushing into SD
along the surface trough Tuesday and onward, which will help to cool
surface temperatures slightly. Highs are still forecast to be in the
upper 70s to 80s after Tuesday, which is still warm.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...TMT