368
FXUS63 KABR 100551
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1251 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- We can`t rule out a stronger storm or two during the early
  morning hours. A Marginal Risk (1 of 5) is in place across the
  CWA for hail to 1" and wind gusts up to 60 mph.

- A Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) has been issued for storms that
  are expected to organize across central/north central South
  Dakota during the evening, and then spread rapidly east to
  southeast through the overnight hours. Large hail (1 to 2
  inches) and winds in excess of 60-70 mph are possible with
  these storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Northwest flow with a weak trough passage across the state during
the early morning hours. Just a weak low level jet across the area
at about 20kts. Given the rather nebulous setup for weak forcing
aloft and at the surface, CAMS are likewise struggling to come up
with a unified solution and thus will maintain a rather low chance
for POPs through the early morning hours. NAM BUFKIT profiles aren`t
even that unstable with minimal mid level CAPE. Then again, we
remain in this northwest flow regime with a unidirectional shear
environment so can`t rule out a stronger storm or two but the
overall prognosis is for mainly sub-severe type storms and isolated
coverage.

Shift to this evening with a low pressure system developing out west
and an inverted trough extending up across northeast South Dakota. A
weak wave arrives late in the day, supporting convection in
southeasterly low level flow with westerly unidirectional flow
aloft. CAMS for the most part organize into  a complex that drives
across central/north central South Dakota in the evening/early
overnight with an overall rapid progression east southeast across
the state. HREF 0-3km helicity peaks around 300m2/s2 and the 4-hour
max ensemble winds indicate 60+ kt potential with ensembles
highlighting central South Dakota.

In regards to smoke, no real change. The Pacific Northwest and
British Columbia continue to generate a broad expanse of thick smoke
aloft which will continue to track across the region until we get a
pattern change. Flow around the current surface high even as it
moves off to the east currently has no low level smoke to advect
into the area.  The one impact smoke is most likely to have is
influence on high temperatures. While I`ll stick with NBM highs,
realize that initial surface based thunderstorm intensity is
contingent on temperatures and if the expected thick sheen of smoke
knocks down temperatures 2-4F then the resulting convective
evolution may not stick to the current CAM consensus.

The only major change to the pattern and forecast for the next few
days is a much cooler airmass coming in for the latter half of the
work week, as we see an eastern Canadian upper low strengthen, with
a broad high across central Canada which dribbles slightly cooler
air into the Northern Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Got some MVFR stratus developing in the low level upslope flow
across central and south central South Dakota early this morning.
KPIR looks to be impacted by this stratus for a while this morning.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast for all terminals through
Monday evening. Hi-Res guidance has been suggesting there will be a
period of elevated showers/storms this morning (could impact any of
the terminals), and radar shows convection developing right now,
likely ending by ~15Z, with a dry period through ~23Z before the
next round of (potentially strong to severe) storms gets going by
early this evening over the western Dakotas before shifting over
into the Missouri River valley region (KPIR/KMBG) by 06Z Tuesday.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...10