955
FXUS63 KABR 261839
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
139 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog of 3 to 5 miles over northeastern SD/west central MN
today to expand to south central SD tonight into Sunday morning with
visibility down to 2 miles or less.

- Rain late Sunday night into Monday over portions of central SD
will expand to northeastern SD Monday night. This area will exit
across northeastern SD/west central MN late Monday night and slowly
end west to east during the day Tuesday.

- There is a 50-80% chance of 0.75" or more rain over north central
SD, mainly north and west of a line from Redfield to Britton.

- While severe weather is not expected, with around a 20% chance of
thunderstorms late Sunday night into Monday over central SD, mainly
west of the MO River.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 138 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

The pressure gradient will continue to weaken through tonight as the
surface low over western SD/NE and associated through over western
SD moves east across our forecast area. This will set the stage for
another night of fog. Patchy fog over northeastern South Dakota and
west central Minnesota will expand to south central SD tonight into
Sunday morning, with visibility down to 2 miles or less. The trough
will be across southeastern SD into west central MN at 12Z, with a
cold front stretching from a deep low over central Canada through
northwestern MN and bisecting SD northeast to southwest.

The main impact to this cold front sinking to our south during the
day Sunday will be the exit of some of the thicker low level
moisture. There is low confidence in peaks of sunshine that many
people haven`t been seen in around a week across northeastern SD and
west central MN. We`ll see where a band of thicker clouds remains
Sunday (over central or eastern SD).

Taking a look 500mb flow, steady flow out of the southwest will
dominate our weather pattern late Sunday through at least Tuesday of
next week. This will help to bring rain to central SD Sunday night
into Monday that will move across northeastern Monday night before
exiting east during the day Tuesday. A few rumbles of thunder will
accompany these showers. The WPC excessive rainfall outlook for this
period is in the marginal range, with a 50-80% chance of 0.75" or
more rain over north central SD, mainly north and west of a line
from Redfield to Britton.

Dry weather will return Tuesday through the rest of the forecast
period. While high temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 60s
to mid 70s through Wednesday, they will drop mainly into the 60s
Thursday through Saturday. Lows should remain in the 50s through
Thursday morning, with 40s Friday and Saturday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

IFR ceilings continue over the region, with pockets of MVFR
conditions able to move into central SD (MBG/ABR). Fog will be a
concern again tonight, with visibility across south central SD
tonight into Sunday morning down to 2 miles or less. MBG may
stay in the VFR to MVFR categories during this time, with mainly
MVFR to IFR or lower conditions at the remainder of the TAF
sites.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...06
AVIATION...06