303
FXUS63 KABR 241034
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
534 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 50/50 chance at 1/4" moisture along and west of
  the Missouri river with the system Thursday night/Friday.
  Precipitation potential drops rapidly east of the Missouri
  river.

- The probability of exceeding wind advisory criteria (45mph) is
  50% west of the James River Valley Saturday.

- Overall, the trend in mild temperatures and low humidity is
  to end soon, with above normal temperatures for the weekend
  and next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 533 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

UPDATE for 12Z TAF discussion below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 127 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Not much going on this morning, with low pressure to the north
funneling drier air into the region. Still looks like a long
shot that any of the convection associated with the low and wave
to the northeast creep into the far northeast CWA later today.

The system moving west to east that rapidly falls apart late
Thursday into Friday is still anticipated, however forecast
precipitation amounts continue to drop. West River is down to a
50/50 chance at 1/4" moisture, but like the last system,
probabilities drop rapidly East River. By the time we get to
Aberdeen/Watertown its a 50/50 shot at even measuring. HRRR smoke
through Friday 00Z shows none of that lifting this far north and
getting ingested into the system thanks to zonal flow.  Something we
will need to consider for the weekend as flow shifts to
southwesterly aloft with a fetch from the Great Basin region source
region.

Focus is all on the broader wave that moves down the coast, into the
Pacific Northwest and loops across the Norther Rockies late this.
week/weekend. With such a high amplitude system just to our west,
one of the main aspects will be the heat. A number of GEFS
members 850mb temperatures are topping out around 30C. Also
seeing a big jump in GEFS 700mb temperatures, topping out at 2
standard deviations above climo with the +16C isotherm tracking
up into southeast South Dakota.

Additionally, guidance is coming together on strong southerly winds
ahead of all this. Peak gradient is about 14-18mb across the state,
with 1/2km winds in the GFS around 40kts.

And the heat will stay. A southwest flow regime persists through
well into next week. Deterministic guidance all hint at
multiple plumes of elevated mixed layers crossing the region.
NBM probabilities of high temperatures above 90 are solidly
above 50% and relentless though mid week. Looking at the
HeatRisk progression out that far... we`re trending into
Moderate to Major categories. Might be worse, currently NBM
dewpoints out that far are actually limited to 50s and 60s,
though the NBM probabilities of a dewpoint exceeding 65F is 25
to 40% during the days 3-7 stretch.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 533 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will continue through the period.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...06
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...06