815
FXUS63 KABR 231809
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
109 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong winds out of the west continue this afternoon. Blowing dust
has been spotted/added to the forecast across Corson/Dewey/Stanley
counties where wind gusts are topping 50-55mph.

- Wind Advisory and Red Flag headlines remain in place through the
late afternoon. Wind Advisory is along and west of the James valley,
Red Flag for the Sisseton hills and west central Minnesota.

- More seasonal if not slightly below normal temperatures through
the middle of next week (highs: upper 40s-mid 50s).

- System latter half of Sunday through most of Monday with
widespread moisture (mainly rainfall). Highest potential across
James valley and east, lowest in north central SD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

GOES EAST MESOSCALE SECTOR helping to highlight blowing dust across
portions of Corson/Stanley/Dewey counties and a little bit east
river thanks to winds of 45 to 55 mph and a lack of moisture
delivered yesterday. Winds to stay up this afternoon with an 8mb/6
hour pressure bubble, however 1/2km winds across the advisory area
drop off after 00Z. That said, winds in the Red Flag area may move
into Wind Advisory criteria for a few hours after the Red Flag is
cancelled early or expired.

For tonight through mid day Friday, surface low continues to wrap up
over south central Canada, with west/northwest low level flow in an
area of induced ridging. CAMS are picking up on a weak wave coming
in from WY/MT through west river into the western CWA around
midnight. The result is some mid level moisture with temperatures
near freezing in the lowest 1-2kft meaning mainly rain but cant rule
out a little snow as well. 1/2km winds are also on the decrease
overnight, and during the day Friday under this weak ridge,
however there will be a tighter gradient and stronger winds up
along the northern tier of SD.

Late Friday/Friday night, a little stronger wave follows the first,
again into western South Dakota with precipitation taking a broad
loop from south west to eastern South Dakota.  A little better
forcing with this feature, which appears to have a little
banded feature on its northern extreme, with higher mid level
ascent, which would be across the southern CWA border from
central to east central South Dakota. CAMS and NBM have both
seen an increase POPs associated with this feature as well.

The upper low continues to sit and spit to our north Sunday, with a
weak wave that moves across the Desert Southwest and is pulled up
into our region, and becomes more organized into a stronger system
as it moves towards the Western Lakes region. This translates to the
surface as a deepening surface low that develops over eastern
Colorado and takes a sharp loop up through eastern NE/southeast SD
and into central MN. NBM precipitation type is predominantly rain,
with the western fringe of the CWA the lower 25th percentile
temperatures are cool enough for snow so the outcome is rain/snow
during the early morning hours.  As for moisture, the NBM 25th-75th
range is still quite high: 1/3 of an inch out by Mobridge to 1/2
inch elsewhere as the lower bounds, to around an inch/inch and a
half on the higher end.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions for all terminals. West winds topping out around
35kft with a slow decrease through the evening/overnight.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for SDZ007-008-
     011-019>023.
     Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for
     SDZ003>006-009-010-015>018-033>037-045-048-051.
MN...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...07