666
FXUS63 KABR 300652
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
152 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above average temperatures, dry conditions with east winds of 15
to 20 mph today.

- Next system for Monday night/Tuesday expected to be little more
than a frontal passage and an isolated light shower or two.
Widespread moisture unlikely.

- Cooler Tuesday with highs in the 40s. Northwest winds gusting 30
to 45 mph in the morning.

- Potential for more widespread moisture in the form of snow or
rain/snow mix for the latter half of the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 151 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Low pressure to the south means east/northeast surface winds and a
tight thermal gradient across the northern tier of the state.  A
shortwave embedded within the northern jet stream over North
Dakota/southern Canada translates into light precipitation up to our
north and little chance for this part of South Dakota. The low moves
to our south and helps enhance cold advection late Monday into
Tuesday. Some mid level clouds and possibly weak instability in this
regime could allow for a few spits of rain, however NBM
probabilities for exceeding 0.01" is still only about 40% along the
northern tier of the state, with just 15% for the Pierre/Chamberlain
areas. Probabilities for 0.1" is just a paltry 15% up by Eureka. NAM
did have a few bullseyes of higher QPF during past runs across the
CWA but this is no longer a feature in the 00Z run. Thus... don`t
expect much moisture from this system. As for winds, mixed tool is
still giving us winds in the mid 30kt range, and as such bumped up
winds over NBM Tuesday.

Focus shifts to mid week precipitation chances. Previous runs 24 and
48 hours ago suggested split flow and weaker systems. Looks to be
more convergence on a wetter solution with the latest few runs of
the NBM compared to last night. There is also now the delineation
into two distinct systems, one in the southern stream which
progresses across the south/central Plains Wednesday before lifting
into the Western Lakes region. We`re well into the cool side of an
upper level trough as this occurs, meaning the precipitation type is
predominantly snow. We`re still in diffluent flow aloft Thursday on
the backside of the first wave, meaning additional QPF potential,
before the next upper wave moves in Friday. Normally however, I
would not be so enthusiastic about moisture in this type of setup,
as the moisture would mostly end up to the west and broad high
pressure to the east would feed in drier air into the northeast, and
with only 5 to 10 microbars of ascent moisture would normally be
limited to west river. Deterministic guidance and the NBM are
suggesting otherwise.

With deterministic and ensembles having all seen a decent bump in
moisture, NBM likewise is giving higher probabilities of QPF in
comparison to 24 hours ago. NBM probability of exceeding 0.25" has
increased from about 25% to closer to 60% through 00Z Friday.

This increase also means snow accumulation potential. NBM snow
ratios are around 10:1 which is about right for this time of year
under an atmosphere that lacks strong ascent. When we were talking
about a 24-36 hour total of 1/4" of liquid, we`re really meaning
about 3". There is also a 30-40% probability of exceeding 0.5" which
would be high end winter weather advisory (~5"), and only a 20%
chance for 3/4" or low end winter storm warning.

Then you have the more traditional wave/Colorado low type system
that follows for late in the work week. Thats still fairly far off
to get any details on at this point.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will prevail across all TAF sites the next 24
hours. Winds will generally remain easterly and gust at times
around 15-20 kts through the morning hours.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...Vipond