077
FXUS63 KABR 231252
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
652 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Bitterly/dangerously cold air remains in place into the weekend.
Temperatures today not expected to rise above zero. Wind chills this
morning 35 below to 45 below zero.

- Temperatures back into the single digits below to teens below zero
tonight. Winds chills Saturday morning morning of 20 below to 30
below.

- Slightly moderating temperatures early next week into the teens
and 20s above zero!

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 207 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

1050`ish Arctic high pressure gradually slides across the
Dakotas/Minnesota today, so with light winds temperatures are not
expected to recover much. A lack of thick, fluffy snow cover may is
the only saving grace, and that may allow for a little bit better
recovery. The high moves east and weakens slightly, and by Saturday
morning we have a light southerly flow with about a 6mb gradient
across the state, and pressure falls of 6mb in 6 hours. Hardly earth
shattering, but that and the aforementioned lack of thick snow
cover suggests temperatures will not tank quite as dramatically
for Tonight. There is also a suggestion for some increasing
low/mid cloud cover with warm advection in the 900-800mb layer.
Its not terribly strong, and doesn`t get going until after 03-06Z
meaning an ample window for favorable radiational conditions.

There is also a really subtle shortwave pinwheeling overhead around
a longwave trough extending off the eastern CONUS trough/upper low
Friday evening that could provide some weak lift. Temperatures
within the profile are colder than the dendritic growth zone, so
wouldn`t anticipate anything more than diamond dust.

As for wind chills, will let the current set of headlines continue
through mid-day/early afternoon and the day shift can adjust as we
warm up. May need additional headlines up along the northern tier of
the state for Saturday but not nearly as widespread or as long a
duration.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 207 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

The long term opens Saturday evening with the first of two upper
level waves to move across the region during the period. The next
wave comes through late Tuesday through early Thursday. Down at the
surface, high pressure moves in Wednesday and lasts through the end
of the period. Each of these waves brings a slight drop in
temperatures and little in the way of precipitation chance.
Temperatures are still expected to be below normal with highs Sunday
in the single digits above and below zero (20-25 degrees below
normal). Following this, temperatures stay mainly in the teens to
twenties above zero (10-15 degrees below normal). Monday morning
"feels like" temperatures looks to be relatively cold again, with
widespread winds chills in the -25 to -30 degree F range across
north central and northeast SD into west central MN. We aren`t
expecting anything in the way of windy days through the period.
Winds stay relatively light, aside from maybe some stronger gusts
closer to 25 mph along the eastern side of the Prairie Coteau Monday
afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 527 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions for all terminals.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Extreme Cold Warning until 3 PM CST /2 PM MST/ this afternoon
     for SDZ003>011-015>023-034-036-037.

     Cold Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST /2 PM MST/ this afternoon
     for SDZ033-035-045-048-051.

MN...Extreme Cold Warning until 3 PM CST this afternoon for MNZ039-
     046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...07