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Forecast Discussion for Aberdeen, SD
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005 FXUS63 KABR 252011 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 211 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mild and above average temperatures (40s and 50s) return for Thursday and Friday. - Increasing west-northwest winds (25-35mph gusts) Thursday/Friday, along with lowering humidity (25-35 percent) will bring high/very high fire danger to central/south central SD. - Snow chances (50-70 percent) return Friday night through Saturday. Generally, less than 4 inches expected as probability for 2 inches or greater is only 15-35 percent across northern SD. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 210 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026 Narrow band of snow continues to make progression east-southeast across the CWA early this afternoon. Been making adjustments to PoPs throughout the day to account for this. Also watching another area of rain showers across western SD, taking aim for the southwest CWA and may have to make some adjustments there as well. Looking at web cams where it has snowed, it would appear the most anyone received was maybe a few tenths to a half inch as the band of snow has been fairly progressive. Tonight, a warm front will move eastward across the area, with milder temperatures in its wake for Thursday and even into Friday. 925mb temps warm to as high as +5C to +10C across the area during this time. We will also enter into some breezy/windy conditions both days, with west-northwest winds gusting between 25 and 35 mph for most areas. Humidity values drop to around 25 to 35 percent across central SD Thursday and Friday afternoon, so Grassland Fire Danger values bump up into the "Very High" category those days. For the time being, it appears criteria for wind and/or fire wx headlines is not met. Focus then shifts to the snow potential Friday night into Saturday. Colder air begins moving back southward over the region on Saturday and lingers through the weekend as highs drop back down into the teens, 20s, and 30s. Models still show a band of accumulating snow running west to east across the CWA. Seems like a case (at least for now) where most accumulations are less than 4 inches. Probability for receiving 2 inches or greater is only about 15-35 percent from KMBG through KATY. Current forecast shows a general 1 to 2 inches over said region, but will be refining this in the coming days. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1129 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG MVFR CIGs, along with a band of -SN/SN will move moving eastward across the region today, least likely affecting KPIR. Any precipitation looks to be east of KMBG at the start of the TAF period, but KABR/KATY may see some -SN. Lowest confidence at KABR so left mention out for the time being, but did add a PROB30 for KATY. Conditions are forecast to trend widespread VFR later this evening and through the latter half of the TAF period. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TMT AVIATION...TMT |
Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS Aberdeen, SD (ABR) Office Forecast Discussions.
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