004
FXUS63 KABR 171116 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
516 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect until noon for the
  entire forecast area.

- Lingering light snow/flurries will continue through the early
  morning.

- Winds will decrease this afternoon but then increase once again
  out of the northwest early Sunday, with gusts of 45 to 55 mph, through
  late Sunday afternoon. A Wind Advisory has been issued for the
  entire forecast area.

- Light snow of around an inch or less is possible across portions of
  northeastern South Dakota and west central Minnesota Sunday.
  The combination of snow and gusty winds may lead to drifting and
  blowing snow that could reduce visibility at times over this
  area.

- Wind chills of 15 below to near 30 below zero are expected Monday
  morning.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 509 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Updated forecast for the 12Z TAFs below.

UPDATE Issued at 410 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

As wind chills keep tanking at or near the -30 threshold, added
the rest of the SD counties into the Cold Weather Advisory that
continues until noon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 328 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

As of 230am radar indicates areas of light snow/flurries that are
still circling around the backside of the low pressure system,
tracking northwest to southeast. So continued with slight pop
chances through the early morning. The coldest wind chills of -25 to
-33 are over north central and SD where the Cold Weather Advisory
remains in place through noon. Winds are still breezy gusting
between 30 to 45 mph out of the northwest.

Aloft, the region remains in northerly flow on the backside of a
large slightly positive tilted trough and its mid level low that
will be over IA at 12Z. This system will continue to track
east/southeast with winds aloft turning northwest over the Northern
Plains. Models indicate we are still seeing some gusty winds aloft
behind the 850mb/sfc low (center over the Great Lakes
Region/Ontario) with speeds about 35kts at 12Z, then gradually
weakening a bit by the midday and afternoon to around 20-25kts along
with the 925mb winds. So expect winds to remain a bit breezy this
morning at the surface with gusts of 25-35kts through the late
morning. The good news is that high pressure will continue to drop
down out of Saskatchewan this morning and directly over the region
by this afternoon, which will relax the gradient and winds will
diminish towards the afternoon through the evening. This will only
last a few hours as wind speeds increase with the next system.

This high will exit the region as it tracks southeast with yet
another clipper that will move in across the Dakotas into MN late
tonight through Sunday and exiting the area by Sunday evening as the
low will be centered over the Great Lakes. On the backside of this
low, gustier winds will move in from the northwest, over north
central SD then the rest of the CWA early Sunday morning with 850mb
winds between 45-55kts and 925mb winds up to 35kts. So once again
with the winds aloft and a tighter pressure gradient, surface winds
will gradually increase from west to east over the CWA Sunday
morning, and peaking by the late morning through the afternoon. This
is shown pretty well looking at a blend of HREF/HREF90. NBM 24max
gust potential for Sunday does show up to 55 mph with Leola
Hills/Corson County hitting 60mph, however, the NBM 25-75th spread
for max gusts is 10-15 mph. So with collab went NBM/NBM90 for wind
and gusts Sunday with gusts of 45-55 mph. With collab, did issue a
Wind Advisory for the entire CWA.

CAMs are pretty consistent indicating light snow moving in from ND
early Sunday morning (~3-5Z) over north central SD and along the
ND/SD border, tracking southeast, mainly east of the Mo River. Just
a bit of a difference in coverage area whether its more of a skinny
band of snow or wider. CAMs then show light bands/streamers of snow
behind it over portions of central and northeastern SD. This looks
to move out by the late afternoon. However, HREF really only shows
this first main wave of snow affecting far northeastern SD/western
MN with less in the way of snow streamers behind it so there is a
bit of a difference. Latest NBM pops does a good job incorporating
all of this with the highest pops of 35-55% James Valley and
eastward. Probability of an inch of snow is 40 to 60% east of the
James River. The combination of winds and snow (that occurred with
the last event plus additional falling snow) will once again lead to
drifting and blowing snow, especially over far northeastern
SD/western MN (and especially over the higher elevations of the
Coteau) that would lead to a reduction in visibility. Did not have
enough confidence just yet to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for
this area. Will let the day shift look at it and either issue WWY
along with the Wind Advisory or merge the two together into just a
Winter Weather Advisory.

With this arctic airmass in place it will be a chilly with highs in
the single digits to the lower 20s with the coldest temps James
Valley and eastward. Overnight lows will dip down to a couple of
degrees below zero to around 12, again coldest James Valley and
eastward. Temps then warm through the early morning as the cliiper`s
warm front track east across the CWA with temps by 12Z in the teens
James Valley and eastward to the 20s/30 west of here. These temps
will hold for a few hours before the cold front dips down from the
north and temps will then fall back into the single digits to upper
teens by late afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 328 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

This period will continue to feature northwesterly flow aloft across
the Northern Plains through the majority of the upcoming week.
Within the flow there will be embedded shortwave troughs that may
periodically move through the region that won`t provide much in the
way of any sensible weather. However, one wave of note we`ll have to
keep an eye will be on Tuesday into Wednesday when guidance is in
fair agreement indicating a disturbance will track through the area.
At this time, this upper trough will have the best chance for
bringing in some light precipitation to the area. In house ensemble
guidance continues to paint a 20-30 percent chance for light snow
across portions of northeast SD and west central MN the latter half
of Tuesday into Tuesday night. This system doesn`t appear at the
moment that it will be a blockbuster event. Moisture values appear
to be limited but enough to produce some light snowfall. NBM
probabilities of a 24 hour 1 inch or greater snowfall ending early
Wednesday range between 20-40 percent along and east of a line from
Mobridge to Redfield to Brookings. Beyond this time frame, guidance
remains inconsistent with the timing and placement of any additional
waves that may deliver potential for more precipitation, but the end
of the week seems to be the most favored time our area could see the
next chance.

As far as temperatures go through the period, Monday will start off
cold with temperatures in the single digits above and below zero and
wind chill values between 15-25 below zero. Mild air will try and
sneak into the area on Tuesday ahead of that next upper trough where
we could see daytime readings close to normal. The latter half of
the week will feature gradually cooling temperatures back below
normal with the potential for another shot of arctic air returning
late in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 509 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Could see a few lingering light snow/flurries over the next couple
of hours mainly affecting KABR/KATY. KATY continues in MVFR/IFR
cigs with ceilings expected to increase towards the midday into
the afternoon. Otherwise, VFR/MVRF cigs expected through the TAF
period for the rest of the sites. Strong winds will slowly
diminish this afternoon and evening but become strong again early
Sunday morning, with gusts of 40-50kts over the region. Light snow
is forecast to move in mainly affecting KABR and KATY Sunday. The
combination of falling snow and gusty winds will reduce
visibility at times, especially over northeastern SD into west
central MN.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM CST Sunday for SDZ006>008-011-
     018>023.

     Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ today for
     SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051.

     Wind Advisory from 4 AM CST /3 AM MST/ to 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/
     Sunday for SDZ003-015-033-045.

     Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Sunday for SDZ004-005-009-
     010-016-017-034>037-048-051.

MN...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM CST Sunday for MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MMM
SHORT TERM...MMM
LONG TERM...Vipond
AVIATION...MMM