589
FXUS63 KABR 201152
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
552 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow expected to slide southeast this morning through
  this evening. Accumulations of up to 1 inch will be possible.

- Another round of light accumulating snow moves in on Wednesday
  with generally less than an inch expected.

- Gusty northwest winds develop on Wednesday ranging from 35-50 mph
  with the strongest winds expected across central South Dakota.
  Blowing snow and reduced visibilities will be possible.

- Very cold temperatures and dangerous wind chills expected
  Thursday through Sunday morning. The coldest period will be
  Friday with wind chills Friday morning ranging in the thirties
  to forties below zero. Actual high temperatures for Friday are
  forecast to range from zero to the teens below zero.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 543 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

Sfc high pressure remains in control across the eastern Dakotas and
western MN early this morning. Clear skies across our far eastern
zones have allowed temperatures to fall into the single digits below
zero. Some locales late last evening fell into the double digits
below zero across northeast SD. However, increasing low to mid
level cloudiness from the west has started to move into our
eastern zones and has stabilized temperatures. Cloud cover will
continue to increase this morning as the next wave makes its way
down into our region.

Sfc low pressure remains anchored on a northwest to southeast
oriented stationary front over southeast MT/northeast WY/western SD.
This disturbance is progged to track southeast along the sfc
boundary into western SD this morning and into NE this afternoon. An
inverted sfc trough, extending north and northeast of this low will
slide across our forecast area midday through the afternoon. A swath
of light snow is expected to spread east-southeast from north
central sections of SD into parts of central and northeast SD. Some
enhancement of this swath or band will be possible closer to midday
through the afternoon with moderate snowfall occurring for a
relatively short period of time during the afternoon. This will help
push snowfall totals up to around an inch with best probabilities of
seeing this occur from parts of central/north central SD southeast
into the James Valley. Our far southern/southwest zones and far
northeast zones will see less. BUFKIT profiles suggest there will be
some dry air in the low levels to overcome initially through the
morning, so it make take some time for snow to develop, especially
in those southwest and northeast areas of our forecast area. Winds
won`t be much of a factor in conditions today so not expecting much
in the way of blowing snow and associated reduce visibilities. This
will change though heading into Wednesday.

After a short lived break from the precip tonight, the next clipper
will be on our doorstep tomorrow morning. Guidance progs this system
will track in a southeast fashion but farther north than today`s
disturbance. A more potent upper trough will slide southeast out of
southern Canada into ND Wednesday morning pushing a sfc low pressure
system into central ND and into the eastern Dakotas and western MN
through the course of the daytime hours. Moisture values will be
more limited with this system compared to today`s but still
expecting up to an inch in some areas, especially across the
Sisseton Hills region. The more notable aspect of this system will
be the wind it generates. The fropa is progged to slice through the
CWA during the early to mid morning hours across central SD to late
morning and midday across northeast SD and west central MN.
Increasing northwest winds behind this boundary accompanying the
snowfall and the already fallen fresh snow on the ground from
today`s system will potentially pose moderate impacts to localized
significant impacts for parts of the CWA. How the exact impacts
materialize will depend on the strength of the winds and how
blowable the available snow on the ground is. Most models suggest
gusts will range between 40-50 mph with highest probabilities of
seeing gusts on the high end of that range or a little higher across
central SD. The more significant blowing snow impacts could set up
between the James and Missouri Valleys where a higher amount of
fresh snow from today`s system will be available. The developing
theme for Wednesday is that hazardous travel conditions will set up
across parts of the forecast area but be highly dependent on how
much snow falls today and where it falls plus where the more intense
areas of snowfall set up tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 543 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

The main concern in the long term will be quite the arctic air mass
moving in Thursday and remaining over the region through the
weekend. Friday morning will be the coldest period with wind chills
in the thirties to potentially forties below zero. Saturday morning
wind chills will still range in the twenties and thirties below
zero. Clusters are in agreement on the CWA in northwest flow aloft
as quite the large mid level low will continue circling over the
Hudson Bay/eastern Canadian Provinces and southward through the
Great Lakes and northeastern US region for the end of the
week/weekend. This portion of the overall elongated low will finally
track eastward a bit before getting absorbed into this larger
circulation that will move very slowly east through early next week.
As this does, a large amplified ridge will move in over the western
CONUS next Tuesday/Wednesday.

Its surface low will be over southern Ontario/Great Lakes region
Wednesday night and its arctic cold front extending westward through
Alberta. This back door cold front will plunge southward through
Thursday morning with the impressive 1050mb high sinking
southeastward behind it. To give an example, highs on Wednesday will
be in the 20s to lower 30s and by Thursday, highs will only be in
the single digits and teens. The coldest air (and of the season)
will be over the region Friday morning through the day Friday as the
high will be over the Northern Plains and still cold Saturday with
the high just off to our east. To give another example 850/925mb
temps at 12Z Friday will range from -33 to-24C, coldest over
northeastern SD/western MN. This runs within the 1 percentile for
850mb temps per climo! Saturday morning temps will range from
-16 to -24C at 850mb and -18 to-26C at 925mb. NAEFs indicates
these temps run about 2 to almost 3 standard deviations below climo.
So actual overall lows will range in the teens and twenties below
zero Friday and Saturday morning with forecast wind chills in the
twenties and thirties below zero, and potentially forties below zero
Friday morning. So Cold Weather headlines will defiantly be needed.
Friday`s highs, with the exception of south central SD, will not
even reach zero and stay in the single digits and teens below zero.
As the high shifts further away "warmer air" will filter in west to
east across the CWA with temps warming gradually each day Saturday
and onward with highs by Monday in the teens to the lower 30s, which
will feel like summer!

Other than spotty 15% pops Friday/Saturday over south central SD, on
the very northern edge of a strong system tracking over the southern
CONUS, the overall forecast looks to remain dry through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 543 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are generally expected early in this forecast cycle
before a clipper system delivers light snow to the area later
this morning and persists until late this afternoon or early
evening. MVFR cigs and vsbys will develop during this snowfall
with the potential for IFR cigs/vsbys if snowfall becomes intense
enough at any of the terminals. Winds will generally remain in
check with southeasterly breezes through midday before turning
more west to northwest later today into tonight. A few gusts
between 15-20 knots will be possible at KPIR/KMBG tonight.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Vipond
LONG TERM...MMM
AVIATION...Vipond