915
FXUS63 KABR 101820
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
120 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong southerly winds gusting up to 25-35 miles per hour will
  continue to impact northeastern South Dakota into western
  Minnesota with elevated fire weather conditions into early
  this evening. Localized gusts up to 45 mph along will be
  possible on the eastern side of the Prairie Coteau as well.

- Some blowing dust and chaff from harvest can also be expected
  into this evening, potentially creating some visibility
  reductions at times.

- The pattern changes to cooler temperatures Sunday, along with
  increasing chances for rain next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 118 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

At 1 PM CDT, skies are sunny and temperatures are warming through
the 80s. Winds across central and north central South Dakota are
southerly 5 to 15 mph, with some gustiness at times up to around 20
mph. Across northeast South Dakota into west central Minnesota,
winds are south-southwesterly 15 to 25 mph with gusts well in excess
of 35 mph; especially in the downslope-favored regions in the lee of
the Coteau, where gusts have been between 45 and 55mph. Relative
humidity values across central and north central South Dakota are
crashing, down below 25 percent. Along and east of the
Minnesota/South Dakota border, relative humidity values have been
slower to diminish, given the higher levels of gulf-sourced moisture
in the mixing layer/PBL.

There is a cold front analyzed just starting to enter Corson/Dewey
Counties (far nw corner of the CWA). Short term guidance has this
frontal boundary slowly sinking southeast across the CWA from now
through Sunday afternoon. Low forecast confidence in the temperature
forecast on Sunday, while this frontal passage is occurring. Suffice
it to say, the southeastern third of forecast zones should be warmer
than the northwestern two-thirds of the CWA. Behind this fropa,
temperatures will be cold (closer to climo normal) over the entire
CWA for Monday through Wednesday. Beyond that, the low level thermal
advection pattern should change enough to allow some warming over,
at least, the western half of the CWA for the latter portion of next
week.

The precipitation potential keeps changing from day to day, with
what previously looked like a decent soaking rain early this
upcoming week, is fizzling out. With the western CONUS upper level
trof that`s developing, there could certainly be a few transient
shortwaves bringing short-lived rain chances to the region between
Sunday night and Wednesday. But, ensembles and deterministic
solutions are not on the same sheet of music regarding how to
evolve/break down the Rex block pattern that will develop over the
next few days. Amongst the many potential outcomes, there are
currently two scenarios that stand out the most. In one scenario,
energy rounding the top of the western CONUS upper level ridge will
be sufficient to kick out the closed low over the intermountain
west, bringing a period of precipitation potential and cooler
conditions during the second half of next week. The other scenario
holds the Rex block in place, keeping this region generally dry and
warm from Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through the first 18 hours of the TAF
period. Between 12Z and 18Z Sunday, post frontal stratus clouds
may materialize, particularly at KMBG and KABR. A cold front
will slowly move southeast through the region over the next 24
hours, switching winds at terminals from the south to the
north-northeast.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...10