409
FXUS63 KABR 011124 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
524 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dense fog this morning, mainly across west river.

- Temperatures Sunday and for much of next week will be 10 to 20
degrees above normal with mainly dry conditions.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 523 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

Updated for the 12z Aviation discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 158 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

As of 08z, fog has developed in areas west of the Missouri river due
to lower stratus over that area. This fog should start to dissipate
in the morning once the sun rises. The stratus on the other hand
could stick around into Friday, though it might spread east through
the day and back to the west in the evening.

High surface pressure will continue to move over northeastern SD and
west central MN early this morning before moving to the southeast
into MN. A line of light snow follows behind this high pressure, and
it is forecast to stay mainly in MN. However, a bit of the line
looks to skim far northeastern SD and west central MN for a couple
hours during the morning. This will cause chances for some light
snow flurries over that area during the morning. Following a similar
pattern to the past couple of mornings, the snow flurries will not
cause any accumulation of snow on the ground. Thursday night into
Friday, an additional high surface pressure system follows the same
path through ND, far northeastern SD, and MN. This will hopefully
keep precipitation out of central and northeastern SD on Friday.
Today and tomorrow, temperatures will continue to stay in the teens
east of the James river and in the 20s to 30s to the west, warmest
over south central SD during the day today.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 158 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

The upper air pattern remains in a northwest flow regime with a
building ridge out west, with slowly increasing heights through the
weekend, culminating with the ridge overhead for Monday. This comes
with a catch as a series of weak waves spill over the top of the
ridge into the Northern Plains. GEFS plumes present very little
moisture however, with only a few members generating just a few
hundredths of QPF noted with a weak wave early Saturday.

Then, as we move well into next week, the upper pattern takes on
more of a split flow look with the Hudson Bay upper low weakening
and pivoting back towards the Arctic.  The end result is that
generally we`ll be looking at a weaker flow regime, and a generally
dry pattern, with low confidence in the track/intensity of any of
these systems that are showing up in individual deterministic models
and ensemble members.

As for temperatures, with remnants of an Arctic airmass overhead to
begin the weekend, we see 850mb temperatures gradually modify. The
warmest air just off the surface comes with the upper ridge
placement late Sunday through Tuesday. While some moderation
thereafter is expected, again the low confidence on timing/intensity
of any additional systems translates as well to the temperature
forecast. The key point here is that there is a noted lack of any
additional Arctic airmasses through the majority of the extended
forecast period.

In regards to temperatures Sunday-Tuesday, NAEFS 850mb thermal
anomalies increase to a standard deviation above climo starting 00Z
Sunday and persist through 18Z Tuesday. Again, confidence in the
forecast is sub-par at best, with a 25th-75th range in temperatures
of 6-9 degrees to start off Saturday, and averaging about 8 to 12
degrees through the entirety of the extended.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 523 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Low stratus will be creating LIFR/IFR/MVFR ceilings through the morning
and afternoon, though there could be a few hours here and there
where it clears slightly temporarily at the sights. Winds look to
shift from south southeasterly to be from north northwest during the
afternoon and evening, though the winds should be fairly light.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM CST /6 AM MST/ this morning for
     SDZ003-015-033-045-048.

MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...12