156
FXUS63 KABR 010134 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
834 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will remain over
  northeastern SD and west central MN through this evening.
  Less than a tenth of an inch of rain is expected, with
  localized areas under the heaviest showers potentially seeing
  above a tenth of an inch.

- Lows tonight and highs Friday, and again Tuesday and
  Wednesday of next week will be around 10 degrees below normal.

- Winds Monday afternoon will gust near 30-40mph, strongest over
  northern SD.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 829 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Just a few remaining isolated light showers across the eastern
CWA this evening and will be exiting over the next hour or two.
Updated PoPs to better reflect radar trends and expectations.
Winds are decreasing this evening and will continue to do so
into the nighttime hours. No big changes to lows, but wouldn`t
be surprised if some areas (including ABR) drop a couple
degrees below forecast with clear skies expected for a good
chunk of the night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

The 19Z Satellite imagery is impressive this afternoon, with a wide
swath of cumulus clouds becoming glaciated over the northern half of
SD. Small hail and a few lightning strikes will remain possible in
the strongest small/weak storms. We`re also noting the embedded
shortwave rotation to weak surface low across eastern ND that has
been persistent through the morning and early afternoon hours. This
will help enhance the clouds over far southern ND and northeastern
SD through the early evening hours - keeping precipitation going a
bit longer. The weak low will shift over our eastern SD/MN border by
00Z, and mainly to our south-southeast by 06Z Friday, with
precipitation coming to an end over our area.

The 1025mb surface high over southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba will
slide across much of the forecast area by 09Z Friday with a ridge
remaining over eastern SD through 03Z Saturday. The result will be,
that after 2 days of scattered to isolated shower activity, Friday
looks to be dry. After lows in the upper 20s to near 30 degrees,
highs will again be in the 50s. Winds will be light, with peak gusts
around of 15-20mph from south central to northeastern South Dakota
and west central Minnesota Friday afternoon. The Grassland Fire
Danger Index values will be low Friday.

Warm air advection will take hold Friday night/Saturday morning
behind a warm front as the main low stretches across southern Canada
into northeastern MT. The low will cross southern Manitoba/northern
ND 12-18Z Saturday before sliding mostly into eastern ND Saturday
afternoon/evening and exiting into central MN Saturday night. This
will be our next chance of precipitation (currently only around a
20% chance for 00-06Z Sunday over far northeastern SD and west
central MN).

High temperatures will rise into the 60s to low 70s this weekend and
into Monday.

A 20-30% chance of showers will return Tuesday. We`ll see how the
trend continues with the timing of the next cold front Monday-
Tuesday of next week. Tuesday and Wednesday will be the coolest
days, returning back into the 50s once again (or around 10 degrees
below normal for this time of year).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 633 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. Winds will
subside after sunset. By Friday afternoon, winds are forecast to
be from a north-northwest direction.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
DISCUSSION...06
AVIATION...TMT