611
FXUS63 KABR 292354 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
554 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High temperatures through Friday will be 5 to 20 degrees below
  average. Coldest temperatures will be found east of the James
  Valley.

- There is a 30-60% chance of light snow over central South Dakota
  tonight into Friday. Up to an inch of snow is possible with this
  event, mainly in and west of the Missouri River valley and
  south of U.S. Highway 212.

- There is a 45-95% chance of mainly light snow from Saturday
  morning through Sunday morning. Conditions warm up to above
  freezing heading into Saturday afternoon, potentially causing
  snow to change over to rain across central and north central
  South Dakota before ending. There is a low probability (~40%
  chance of 0.01 to 0.04in; ~20% chance of 0.05in or more) of
  freezing rain/ice accumulation over portions of central and
  north central South Dakota Saturday morning. Overall, the latest
  indications are for the highest snow totals (probabilities
  register highest for around an inch or less) to reside across
  northeast South Dakota into west central Minnesota.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 540 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

The aviation discussion has been updated for the 00Z TAFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 215 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

At 2 PM CST, lots of sunshine over northeast South Dakota into west
central Minnesota. But, partly to mostly cloudy skies persist across
central/north central South Dakota where snow appears to have
finally ended for the afternoon. Temperatures, like yesterday, range
from around 10 degrees above zero over the far eastern portion of
the CWA to the low 20s over the far western/southwestern portion of
the CWA. Winds are light and variable due to the surface high
pressure system over the region today.

The next light snow event is slated to start ramping up across the
far western/southwestern forecast zones later tonight after 00Z.
Similar to last night`s event, not really seeing much in the
ensembles/probability datasets suggesting much more than a half inch
to an inch of snow may accumulate. There will also be a cold front
backdooring its way through the CWA from northeast to southwest
between late this afternoon and early overnight. And the band of
stratus clouds moving in with the front could end up generating some
flurries across the eastern half of the CWA later this evening into
the early overnight hours.

Air maybe 5-10C degrees colder at 925hpa will be sweeping down
through the eastern half to two-thirds of the CWA from late tonight
through Friday afternoon, so looking at high temperatures dropping
back down into the single digits above to teens above zero across
much of the CWA. By 00Z Saturday, low level WAA appears to be taking
back over.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 215 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

The period opens Saturday morning with a third light snow event in 4
days expected to be rapidly spinning up across central and north
central South Dakota. There are rather low probabilities of freezing
rain/sleet Saturday morning across portions of central/north central
South Dakota. There is a much stronger signal for snow across the
eastern half of the CWA from late Saturday afternoon through early
Sunday morning or snow changing over to rain before ending from
early Saturday morning through Saturday evening over the western
half of the CWA. QPF/snow probabilities still lean toward the lower
end of the measurement scale, with 0.10in of water equivalent
looking do-able; generally 1-2inches of snow accumulation potential.

Still seeing a warming trend in the models/various ensemble datasets
during the extended forecast period despite the frequent, but brief,
back door cold fropa`s forecast to happen between Sunday and
Thursday. Low level WAA is supposed to continue over the CWA on
Saturday, and then resume on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 540 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

KABR/KATY will continue to experience VFR conditions through this
TAF cycle, although there could be scattered MVFR cigs early
Friday morning that should be brief. MVFR cigs will prevail tonight
at KPIR/KMBG. We`ll hold onto light snow chances at KPIR this
evening through the overnight before that activity shifts out of
the area by early-mid morning. KPIR/KMBG are expected to return to
VFR conditions Friday afternoon.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Vipond
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...Vipond