882
FXUS63 KABR 132259
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
459 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures 20-25 degrees above normal will continue through the
weekend. Parts of eastern South Dakota and western Minnesota may
flirt with record highs.

- Precipitation chances (40-60%) return Tuesday. Rain is expected
initially, transitioning to snow by Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 459 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

We were monitoring a fire southwest of Aberdeen which was
indicating the smoke plume nearing the airport (was detected by
satellite/NGFS about an hour and a half ago). The smoke quickly
diminished by 2245Z and we have seen some low level smoke
lingering from our webcam. The temperature inversion is quickly
settling in, which will keep any smoke still being produced more
to the surface. Winds remain light and relative humidity is
starting to recovery back to 40% from the 30% low an hour ago. No
significant changes are expected to the ongoing forecast, as it
remains on track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1123 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Not much change in the thinking for the forecast over the next week.
Dry weather with above normal temperatures (15 to 25 degrees above)
is expected through Monday. Sunday still appears to be the warmest
day as ridging and westerly flow aloft help pull in warm, dry air.
Adjusted dewpoints down toward the 25th percentile and temperatures
up toward the 90th percentile to account for known NBM biases in
these regimes.

Sunday night into Monday, a weak sfc front moves through and the
ridge aloft flattens. Monday will see a nominal cool down as a
result, but highs will still top out in the upper 40s to upper 50s
on a north to south gradient. Still looking at a system moving into
the Plains Tuesday and Wednesday along with a deep upper trough.
More seasonable (read: wintry) temperatures return by Thursday.
Precipitation returns with the low late Tuesday into Wednesday as
some wrap around moisture moves in. Precip type will depend heavily
on timing as daytime highs will support a rain or rain/snow mix
while overnight lows will be below freezing and support all snow.
Amounts are dependent on track of the low. For now, the worst of the
system remains to the north and east of this forecast area, but
northeast SD into west central MN could see up to 2 inches of snow.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 459 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions and light winds will continue over the next 24
hours.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...06
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...06