499
FXUS63 KABR 141729 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1129 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures 20-25 degrees above normal will continue through
  the weekend. Parts of eastern South Dakota and western
  Minnesota may flirt with record highs.

- Precipitation chances (60-80%) return Tuesday. Rain is expected
  initially, transitioning to snow Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1119 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Bumped up high temperatures just a bit this afternoon to bring
them more in line with the latest NBM90/NBM95 percentiles.
Afternoon highs on Friday reached those levels for most locations
and should have no problem duplicating it again today. Otherwise,
the forecast remains on track the rest of today.

The aviation discussion has been updated for the 18Z TAFS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 114 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Upper-level pattern will remain in place through the weekend,
bringing well above normal temperatures to the area. Still expecting
near-record highs over northeastern South Dakota today. As it stands
with this latest forecast, the daily records at the Aberdeen,
Watertown, and Sisseton climate sites will be in jeopardy today.
There is a weak signal for some mid to high clouds in the afternoon
to early evening that could potentially limit heating just enough to
fall short of the records, so those sites could go either way at
this point. These higher temperatures will potentially cause some
elevated fire weather concerns over central South Dakota on Sunday.
Winds will still be fairly light with gusts below 20 knots, and
humidity will bottom out around 20 percent. At this point a Red Flag
Warning is not out of the question for Sunday, but with conditions
remaining marginal no product has been issued at this time. Highs in
the 50s are expected through Monday before the upper-level ridge
begins to propagate eastward.

As the new upper-level regime arrives, a low pressure center will
develop, bringing precipitation to the Northern Plains for the
middle of the week. QPF has trended upward over the past 24 hours,
with ensemble medians now sitting at over half an inch through
Friday morning for parts of northeastern South Dakota and western
Minnesota. "Worst case" scenarios (90th percentile values) now sit
upwards of 1" of liquid equivalent. Precipitation values in both
cases decrease as you move southwest across the state. Precipitation
type will be dependent upon near-surface temperatures, which are
expected to gradually decrease through the week in accordance with
upper-level height falls. With that in mind, the expectation is that
precipitation will begin as rain on Tuesday afternoon, transitioning
to a wintry mix overnight Tuesday into early Wednesday, before
finally transitioning to fully snow Wednesday afternoon. The
heaviest QPF looks to be in that transition zone, so determining
snowfall amounts remains tricky at this time. However, low SLRs
(less than 10:1 on Wednesday) will likely help limit snowfall
totals, and would lean towards a lower end solution of just a couple
of inches in total at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1119 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions expected at all terminals through this next 24
hour forecast cycle. Light winds become more northwesterly through
this afternoon before turning more south to southwest tonight
into Sunday morning.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Vipond
DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...Vipond