307
FXUS63 KABR 082339 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
539 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a slight chance (20-40%) for light rain/snow across
northern SD on Monday.

- There is a chance (30-50%) for some precipitation Wednesday night
into Thursday morning, but confidence on precipitation type is low.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 525 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

The aviation discussion has been updated for the 00Z TAFS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

A weak area of low pressure will cross the region on Monday,
bringing a 20 to 40 percent chance for light pcpn. Locations along
the ND/SD border will have the best potential of seeing light rain.
The higher terrain areas of the Sisseton Hills could see light snow
with the rain. Overall, QPF values remain pretty light, with no
significant impacts expected.

A period of dry conditions with above average temperatures can be
expected Monday night through Tuesday, with highs in the 30s and
40s. These readings are 10 top 17 degrees above average for this
time of year. By Wednesday, models support an area of low pressure
developing over Wyoming with LLM advecting northward across the
plain states. As the surface low pushes east across the area, pcpn
should develop within a zone of WAA, mainly across eastern SD and
western Minnesota. Decent forcing does support higher QPF amounts
exceeding two tenths of inch, mainly over MN, and perhaps the far
eastern SD. However, the storm system is still a few days away,
thus the pattern may change some more.

The rest of the forecast period appears dry and mild as a west coast
trough develops with downstream ridging over the northern plains.
There is a 15-25 percent chance highs exceed 50 degree over much of
the CWA on Friday, with a higher chance over central and western SD.
The probability of exceeding 50 degrees increases slightly through
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 525 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all terminals through
the next 24 hours with the exception of KABR. Latest guidance
suggests there could be a narrow band of stratus developing in
the vicinity of the James Valley after midnight. MVFR cigs will
be possible at KABR from around 09Z through about mid morning. The
passage of a cold front on Monday will lead to gusty north to
northwest winds during the afternoon. Continued to stick with a
dry forecast for now but there is a low probability of a couple of
rain showers Monday afternoon around KABR/KMBG.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Vipond
DISCUSSION...SD
AVIATION...Vipond