017
FXUS63 KABR 031742 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1142 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flurries or a light dusting of snow will continue today and
  tonight between the Missouri River the Prairie Coteau of
  northeastern South Dakota. Pockets of light freezing
  drizzle/rain cannot be ruled out, with limited impacts.

- Above normal temperatures are forecast (by 5 to 20 degrees)
  Wednesday through at least Monday of next week. The warmest air
  will be overhead Thursday and then again Monday, with highs in
  the 40s and 50s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1137 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

Aviation discussion updated below for the 18Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 1012 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

Weak mid-level vort/shortwave rotating southward through the
region this morning, responsible for an area of light snow. Had
earlier this morning updated PoPs significantly to
likely/categorical (60-80%). Any accumulations expected to be just
a dusting to around a half inch. Pockets of freezing drizzle/rain
cannot be ruled out either, with limited impacts. Also increased
sky cover today for many areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 322 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

Moisture diminishes in the primary snow growth region after 18Z
today at Aberdeen, after 21Z over far northeastern SD and is already
out over central SD. A look at area webcams with light snow falling
west of Redfield does support the light radar returns. The flurries
or light snow (chance of precipitation of around 15% or less) will
continue today between the Missouri River the Prairie Coteau of
northeastern South Dakota. The surface weather map shows a large
area of high pressure along the ND/MN border, with a ridge extending
across far northeastern SD and west central MN. While much of the
area is under a thick stratus deck, the drier air from the surface
high is at least temporarily resulting in a mostly clear sky over
our 3 northeastern counties. Additional clouds are moving in from
the northwest, with the area of clear sky in flux. The surface high
over the northern half of MN by 15Z will push to the southern half
of MN by 00Z Wednesday and over IA/WI tonight. In the meantime, a
weak surface trough and 500mb wave will bring another round of light
snow tonight. The chance of precipitation is only 30%, with little
to no snowfall accumulation expected (less than a half inch). Warmer
air near and west of the Missouri River will allow for light rain,
or a wintry mix of rain or snow this evening.

Dry weather will return Wednesday as another area of high pressure
over eastern MT/WY at 06Z swings overhead. Temperatures east of the
Missouri River look to be about 5 degrees higher than what is
expected today.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 322 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

Upper level pattern is back into a predominantly northwest flow
regime, with a broad upper ridge expanding to the west. The ridge
doesn`t ever progress to overhead, however it does direct the flow
off the Canadian Rockies. Thus, expect a mostly dry period. There
may be a clipper late Saturday/early Sunday. The latest EC backs off
on the strength of this system, with the Canadian also showing just
a weak wave. The GFS remains more bullish at this point, but there
is still much time between now and then and the system which is
still out over the Aleutians has another 72 hours before we even
begin to talk out it traversing the Pacific Northwest and northern
Rockies. Regardless, doesn`t look like much of a moisture producer
with only a few ensemble members even producing 0.01-0.02" of
moisture. Nor does it have much of a surface reflection with much
influence on winds or temperatures.

As for temperatures, with northwest flow we see the arctic front
slip back and forth across the Northern Plains, with the coldest air
directed well east of the area. The warmest airmass goes through
Monday with 850mb temperatures up around +10C, about a standard
deviation above climo. The ridge to the west gets suppressed
thereafter indicating a possible pattern change however we`re
getting pretty far out there to hazard what kind of pattern will
follow or whether it will stick.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1137 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

A mix of MVFR/IFR CIGs will continue to affect the region through
the TAF period. An area of -SN will affect the KATY area early in
the TAF period, with potential MVFR VSBY. Overnight, another weak
wave may bring areas of -SN or even pockets of -FZDZ. Will handle
this with PROB30 for the time being until better confidence in
placement and areal coverage is reached.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...TMT