000
FXUS63 KABR 050814
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
314 AM CDT Wed Oct 5 2022

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Wed Oct 5 2022

The main forecast challenge in the near term is wind speeds and
gusts. An upper level shortwave trough currently over the eastern
part of the CWA will exit to the southeast today, with northwest
flow then in place through the rest of the period. Some weak
shortwave energy will slide over the western part of the area on
Thursday.

At the surface, some lingering shower activity ongoing as of 07Z
will likely come to an end this morning as the upper trough exits
the region and weak high pressure settles in over the central part
of the country. Attention then turns to a fairly strong cold front
that looks to reach the northern CWA early this evening before
tracking southward across the CWA tonight, with fairly strong north
winds moving in behind it. The center of the high will remain over
south central Canada on Thursday, keeping a fairly strong pressure
gradient in place over the CWA, thereby keeping the strong winds
going through the day, particularly across the eastern half of the
CWA. Sustained winds of 20 to 35 mph will be common, with gusts
around 40 mph not out of the question. Models and CAMs are in
agreement that there may be some rain shower potential across the
western CWA in association with the aforementioned upper level
shortwave energy. Will keep POPs fairly low though as coverage area
looks to be minimal.

High temperatures today will be in the 70s, with lows tonight in the
mid 30s to the lower 40s. Highs on Thursday will be in the mid 40s
to lower 50s.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Wed Oct 5 2022

Main concern in the long term is early Friday morning with high
confidence temperatures for most of the CWA will be below freezing,
ending the growing season with a freeze advisory likely. The
question remains how cold it will get in some areas with some high
clouds forecasted over the area. Otherwise, dry weather expected
through the end of the week and weekend.

Clusters at 500mb are still in solid agreement on placement and
amplitude of the ridge over the western U.S./Pacific Ocean which
stretches well north into Canada. This continues to put much of the
Northern Plains in a northwest flow aloft with a trough over eastern
Canada and the northeastern part of the U.S. By Saturday, we start
to possibly see a breakdown of this ridge as a trough moves in over
it (still varying between the Cluster ensembles). Ensembles also
still disagree on timing of this incoming trough and its movement
east over Canada into Sunday/Monday. Either way, northwest flow will
continue well into the weekend aloft. Clusters 8-10 Mean 500mb
height field indicates that this ridge rebuilds over the Pacific.
Within this flow, ECMWF Ens/GEFS indicate some shortwave energy
swinging down from the north (from the tilted trough to our
east)Friday. ECMWF/GFS is hinting at lingering chances or precip
early Friday with the exiting cold front, mainly in our extreme
southwestern CWA with NBM keeping just a very slight chance of pops
(15-25%) between 00-06Z Friday. Back at the surface, a 1036mb high
(99% above climo for MSLP, according to NAEFS)will be influencing
our weather keeping the area quiet. The high will shift to our
southeast Saturday and a surface low (center of low either
MN/Manitoba area) and cold front will pass over the area from the
north, associated with this shortwave Sunday. Another low out of
Canada is possible with this next trough early-mid next week with a
possibility of precip, but timing on the trough/low differs between
ensembles and deterministic models this far out.

Early Friday morning will be a taste of winter with NBM forecasted
temps ranging from the mid 20s to the lower 30s. ECMWF temps at 925
range from -1C to +1C with 850mb temps -7C to -2C (below average)!
So with these cold temps just above the surface, light winds, and
radiational cooling, it will get quite chilly with widespread frost!
Our average lows range in the upper 30s-lower 40s this time of year.
I went along with the previous forecast and blended in NBM 25% for
MinT/temps Fri morning. With CAA dominant from this high, high temps
for Friday only in the upper 40s to the lower/mid 50s. With a shift
in the winds this weekend, we will see a little bit of a warmup with
temps back up in the 60s and even some lower 70s early next week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Wed Oct 5 2022

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Scattered showers may still move across the PIR area over the next
couple of hours, otherwise a dry forecast is expected for the rest
of the period across all of the TAF sites. The main concern will be
lower ceilings and fog at ATY, where visibility continues to rapidly
fluctuate between 1/4 mile and 5 to 7 miles since 02Z. Fog is not
widespread, and will continue to vary as mid clouds move overhead
from the south. Still expect IFR ceilings and visibility to
become more common between 09Z and 12Z before improving to VFR by
around 15Z Wednesday.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Parkin
LONG TERM...MMM
AVIATION...Parkin