374
FXUS63 KABR 070236 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
836 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 40 to 80% chance of precipitation with the developing
  system through tonight.

- Snow accumulations are grouping into a couple of areas. One area
  of ongoing banded snowfall is concentrated across north central
  South Dakota and is expected to persist for several more hours.
  The other area of potential snowfall is expected to develop
  later this evening and spread over into northeast South Dakota
  and west central Minnesota. Snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches,
  with locally higher amounts, are expected.

- Freezing rain and sleet is also expected by early this evening,
  mainly across parts of the James River valley onto the Prairie
  Coteau further east into Minnesota, persisting into the early
  overnight hours before changing over to snow. Ice accumulations
  of a light glaze to around a tenth of an inch, with locally
  higher amounts possible, are expected.

- Above freezing temperatures return Saturday (Highs 40s to mid
  50s). Highs Sunday 25 to 30 degrees above normal.

- Precipitation chances of 40-70 percent for Monday night into
  Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 744 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Continue to monitor the system that brought a combination of snow
to our western zones and freezing rain in our east late this
afternoon and early evening. The band of precip that was across
central SD late this afternoon shifted east and faded in favor of
a new banded deformation zone of precip from our south central SD
zones northeastward into northeast SD and west central MN.
Initially, it was rain and freezing rain across our eastern zones
until a couple of hours ago when the freezing rain transitioned to
snow. The snowfall that was confined to central SD earlier today,
that prompted the issuance of a Winter Weather Advisory faded away
earlier this evening and the headlines was allowed to expire.

The cold air is winning out now and most of the precip is in the
form of snow across our east. Anticipate any additional snow
accumulations will be confined to our east and generally not
amount to more than another inch. Have been adjusting PoPs and Sky
grids this evening to account for the latest trends on radar and
satellite. Most of this precip is expected to shift across our
eastern zones overnight and depart into western MN by daybreak
Saturday.

UPDATE Issued at 541 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

The aviation discussion has been updated for the 00Z TAFS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 150 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

At 2 PM CST, skies are cloudy and temperatures are in the 20s. Winds
are northwest at 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. A preliminary
deformation band that formed earlier this morning across western
into north central South Dakota, started producing snowfall all the
way to the ground between 10 AM and 11 AM this morning and now, a
bonafide deformation zone banded snow event is under way. The parent
low for this is still observed down across Colorado (associated
surface low has emerged and moved out to over central KS). Most
webcams are not showing much more than a half inch to an inch of
snow so far. But, much of the band of snow is occurring just outside
of webcam purview, and based off METARS underneath the heaviest
portion of the band (1/2sm to 3/4sm in snow), fully expecting this
thing to end up generating a swath of 3 or more inches of snow,
"with locally higher amounts possible". A short-fuseed Winter
Weather Advisory has been posted for this phenomenon until 8 PM CST.

Otherwise, the models/guidance continue to tighten their focus on
the rest of today`s/tonight`s winter weather event across mainly
northeast and east central South Dakota into west central Minnesota,
with slightly less snow amounts (now down to generally an inch or
less) but seeing the ice accumulation amounts coming up a little bit
(now up to between 0.10-0.20 inch of ice across parts of the Prairie
Coteau into west central Minnesota and continuing to see the timing
of all this delayed to the point that almost all of the freezing
rain, sleet and snow doesn`t get going across the eastern forecast
zones until ~23Z or later.

No noteworthy changes showing up in models/guidance for Saturday
through Friday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 541 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

A combination of snowfall and freezing rain are currently plaguing
parts of central and northeast South Dakota this evening. The
snowfall has been confined more west affecting the KPIR terminal,
in the colder air, while in the east including the KATY terminal,
there remains a warm nose just off the surface leading to a bout
of freezing rain. Eventually, within the next few hours, the
colder air will win out in the east and the freezing rain will
transition to snow.

The light snow and low stratus has already cleared the KMBG
terminal, so anticipate VFR conditions will hold tonight into
tomorrow, although northerly winds will remain gusty through this
evening. Sub-VFR conditions will persist at KABR/KATY/KPIR
terminals tonight. MVFR cigs/vsbys will persist at KPIR through
the late evening hours before returning to closer to midnight.
MVFR/IFR cigs and vsbys will prevail at KABR/KATY into the pre-
dawn and post-dawn hours Saturday morning.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Saturday for SDZ008-
     020>023.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM CST Saturday for SDZ006-007-
     011-018-019.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Saturday for MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Vipond
DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...Vipond