408
FXUS63 KABR 250525 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1225 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances will become more widespread Sunday through Tuesday.
Probabilities of seeing a half inch or more range from 30-60 percent
across north central SD to 60-90 percent from south central SD into
northeast SD and west central MN.

- Snow will mix in with the rain on Monday and Monday night across
north central SD. Accumulations up to an inch are expected. There is
a 10 percent chance of as much as 3 inches in portions of Corson
county.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Updated discussion for the 06Z TAFs below.

UPDATE Issued at 654 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Thin high clouds remain from south central to northeastern SD
and west central MN, with light showers exiting portions of
Deuel County across east central SD. Winds have diminished to
around 10kts or less, and will be around 5kts or less through
much of Sunday morning. The temperature forecast was lowered
slightly over north central SD overnight given the light winds
and few clouds. Few additional changes were needed at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 113 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

The cold front has exited the forecast area this afternoon with just
a few remnant showers in Deuel and Grant county. Temperatures are
currently in the upper 40s to around 50 degrees and aren`t expected
to move more than a degree or two before the sun sets. Winds will
continue to diminish through the afternoon becoming light and
variable this evening as high pressure builds in.

On Sunday, a trail of latent moisture pushes northeast into southern
SD with shortwaves ejecting out of an upper low across the southwest
US that is carrying some tropical moisture. Models differ on timing
and northward extent to this energy as it battles the sfc high to
the north. However, all models fill in precipitation on Monday as a
stacked low moves out of Colorado and into the Plains. Details on
mid and upper low placement and timing matter with this system as it
could bring the first accumulating snow of the season to north
central SD on Monday. Models tend to have a notoriously difficult
time resolving H7 lows, and the caa in some model depictions seems a
little wonky. Still, consensus is for cooling or stable temps in the
30s across north central SD by Monday afternoon with increasing
trends on QPF amounts. Looking at an inch at most right now of wet
snow and probably closer to half an inch north of Hwy 12, but timing
will be key.

As Sunday`s system finally exits early Tuesday, another will follow
right on its heels Tuesday night, though it appears to remain
farther north over North Dakota at this time. High pressure settles
in Wednesday and Thursday with upper ridging that will help push
highs back above normal into the upper 50s to lower 60s through the
latter half of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Mid to high clouds are tracking northeast across the region with
the bulk of these clouds over eastern SD. Per a system to our
south, ceilings will gradually lower through the day as
rain will gradually track north with these lower clouds and be
widespread across all TAF sites by this evening with rain
continuing through the end of the TAF period and beyond through
Tuesday morning. With this, VFR cigs are forecast at KABR/KMBG
with cigs lowering to MVFR at KPIR this afternoon and KATY early
Monday morning.

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MMM
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...MMM