337
FXUS63 KABR 120525
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1225 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A clipper system brings strong winds to the area Thursday
  afternoon and evening. Wind gusts could potentially exceed
  60-65 mph across central SD and approach 60 mph across northeast
  SD/west central MN. A High Wind Warning has been issued for all
  of central and northeast SD and west central MN.

- Mild temperatures and dry conditions in combination with the
  very strong winds will raise fire weather concerns for Thursday
  afternoon. A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for central
  SD.

- Another area of low pressure will bring a 50 to 80% chance for
  snow or a mix this weekend. High and low temperatures Sunday
  into Monday will be about 15 to 20 degrees below normal.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 610 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

The forecast remains on track this evening. No major changes are
expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

A weak disturbance continues to trek through our far eastern zones
early this afternoon bringing with it an area of clouds and brief
light snow showers to far northeast SD/west central SD. Strato-CU
has also formed across central sections of SD with a few sprinkles
not out of the question through late afternoon. Sfc ridging comes
more into focus tonight leading to some breaks in the cloud cover.
Temperatures will fall into the low to mid 20s tonight which is
about normal.

Confidence continues to increase around the clipper system that will
track through the region on Thursday and Thursday night. Guidance
seems to be more fixed on a low pressure track from northwest to
southeast from western ND from Thursday morning/midday to eastern
ND/northwest MN Thursday afternoon and evening. The GFS/EC remain
similar in strength, timing and track while the Canadian is slightly
weaker and slower in timing. The NAM is the farthest north and east
with the track and closer to the Canadian border. The eventual
outcome of this will dictate where the strongest core of winds set
up along withe placement of some of the precip. Warmer air will
surge north into our area overnight into tomorrow ahead of this
system with readings mainly in the 50s to mid 60s. A strong cold
front is progged to sweep south and southeast through the area
Thursday afternoon. An initial bout of cold air advection will kick
in during the first half of the afternoon with 850mb temps falling
from +3C to +9C to 0C to +5C by the end of the afternoon/early
evening and eventually subzero after 00Z Fri. So, there may be a
couple of surges of strong winds. BUFKIT soundings are quite
impressive and reminiscent of a strong wind event in December with
the top of the mixed layer showing speeds in excess of 70-80+ knots.
Decided it would be best for messaging purposes to upgrade the High
Wind Watch to a High Wind Warning across central SD or issue a new
High Wind Warning for our eastern zones. Elevated fire danger will
still exist across central SD Thursday afternoon with RH`s falling
into a 20-35 percent range, with particular focus across south
central SD where RH`s will be the lowest and temperatures will be
warmest. Nothing overly impressive for fire wx concerns but the very
strong winds give pause to the whole situation. Decided to leave the
Fire Weather Watch in place for now.

This system is progged to pass out of the region by Friday morning.
Cold air advection remains in place leading to chilly, below normal
temperatures on Friday. Most of the day will remain dry before the
next system is progged to begin pushing moisture into our western
zones as early as the afternoon or early evening hours. The latest
NBM iteration continues to paint a broad-brushed area of 50-80
percent PoPs across the forecast area through the upcoming weekend.
There still remains a lot of uncertainty in the track and strength
of this system. Temperatures should be cold enough for mostly a snow
p-type event. However, uncertainties still in the temperature
profile continue to show the potential for a rain/snow line to set
up somewhere in the vicinity of our forecast area, particularly
across our southern zones. Wherever this sets up, if it comes to
fruition, will dictate snowfall amounts and who gets more and who
gets less. So, more to come on this system after we get beyond
Thursday`s clipper system. Much colder air does look probable in the
wake of the weekend system. Single digit overnight temperatures and
daytime readings in the teens and 20s will be possible late in the
weekend into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions for all terminals. Scattered showers with VFR CIGS
possible for all terminals. Strong northwest winds to follow a
cold front for the latter half of the TAF period.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...High Wind Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Friday for
     SDZ007-008-011-019>023.

     Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 9 PM CDT /8
     PM MDT/ this evening for SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-033>037-
     045-048-051.

     High Wind Warning from 3 PM CDT /2 PM MDT/ this afternoon to 1
     AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Friday for SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-
     033>037-045-048-051.

     High Wind Warning from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM CDT Friday for
     SDZ006-018.

MN...High Wind Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Friday for
     MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...20
DISCUSSION...Vipond
AVIATION...07