856
FXUS63 KABR 142109
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
409 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty winds will continue into early evening with patchy
  blowing dust possible. These winds will subside by mid-
  evening allowing for conditions to settle down overnight.

- West to northwest winds will increase on Friday once again
  with the strongest gusts remaining along and north of US
  Highway 14. Patchy blowing dust will be possible again across
  northern South Dakota.

- The combination of low relative humidities and strong winds on
  Friday will lead to another day of elevated fire weather
  conditions. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for the area.

- Rainfall chances increase to 70-90 percent by late in the weekend
  into early next week as an active weather pattern sets up.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 408 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

A cold front is currently working east across far northeast SD
and west central MN with gusty south to southwest winds out ahead of
this boundary. We did have some rain associated with this feature
earlier in the day but most of the precip has shifted out of our
area into MN. Seeing some low level CU developing on the back edge
of a clearing line working toward the James Valley. A few CAM
solutions indicate some of this could materialize into a couple of
showers and storms across our far eastern zones late this afternoon
and early evening, but should quickly exit out of the forecast area
by that early evening time frame. Strong winds today have kicked up
patchy to areas of blowing dust today with visibility reductions.
Some of this has settled down in areas that have seen winds subside
in association with the fropa. But, parts of central/north central
SD are seeing gusts approach 30 mph and our Dust RGB satellite is
picking up on more dust coming back into north central SD. So, until
wind subside this evening, blowing dust will remain possible.

After a less windy overnight, gusty west to northwest winds will
develop again by mid to late morning Friday. A sfc high pressure
ridge will start to try nudging to parts of our western/southwestern
zones through the day, but a tighter gradient farther north will
mean gusts will range from 30-40 mph. The strongest gusts look to
set up along and north of US Highway 14. Temperatures warming
through the 70s to low 80s will drive afternoon RH values to 20
percent or less across most of the forecast area. The combination of
this and the strong winds will once again create critical fire
weather conditions. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect not only
through the night, do to little recovery in RH values, but for most
of the day Friday into early Friday evening. As winds slowly subside
from south to north late in the day, these critical fire weather
conditions will improve.

Sfc high pressure is then progged to become more of an influence on
our conditions for Saturday. Much lighter winds are expected for a
good portion of the day. Although, as the high slides farther north
and east later in the day, return east-southeast flow will set up
across parts of south central SD with some increase in wind speeds
by late afternoon. Dry conditions will prevail through the first
half of the weekend, but then changes will be lurking beyond that. A
pattern shift will take place as an upper trough shifts southeast
out of the Pac NW and digs into the central and southern Rockies.
This will lead to southwest flow aloft across the Northern Plains by
Sunday. Guidance progs lead shortwave activity to move into our
region Saturday night and early Sunday. An increasing unstable air
mass will gradually set in as low to mid level moisture values
increase. A 70-90 percent chance for showers and thunderstorms will
develop overnight through the day on Sunday. Enough severe weather
ingredients look to come together on Sunday for parts of our
forecast area to lead to the possibility of seeing some strong to
severe storms, especially across our south and eastern zones. SPC
severe weather outlook for Day 4 indicate a 15% probability of
seeing severe weather generally from around the Pierre area north
and east toward the Aberdeen area and points south and east.
Guidance currently does prog the best combination of instability and
shear to be just off to our southeast across southeast SD and
southwest MN. Regardless of the severe weather potential, some
beneficial rains could be on the way with this system. NBM
probabilities of seeing at least a half inch of rain or more in a 24
hour period between early Sunday morning and early Monday morning
range between 60-80 percent. Certainly a system to keep an eye on
the trends the next couple days, not only for the severe potential
but for the much needed rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will continue to persist at all terminals through
this TAF valid period. The main thing to be concerned about are
the strong winds the remainder of today and again Friday
morning. South to southwest gusts of 30-40 kts will persist
through the afternoon at KABR/KATY where a wind shift to the
west will take place at KABR early this afternoon and mid to
late afternoon at KATY. Farther west, KPIR/KMBG will see west to
northwest winds through the entire forecast period with the
strongest gusts up to 30 kts through late this afternoon or
early evening. Winds speeds will diminish tonight and then begin
to crank up again by mid to late morning Friday. Blowing dust
will remain possible at KABR/KATY/KMBG terminals through this
afternoon.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ Friday for
     SDZ003>011-015>017-021.
     Red Flag Warning until 4 PM CDT /3 PM MDT/ Friday for
     SDZ018>020-022-023-033>037-045-048-051.
MN...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT Friday for MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Vipond
AVIATION...Vipond