286
FXUS63 KABR 130005
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
705 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Red Flag Warning in effect for west of the MO River Wednesday
  as winds increase out of the west to northwest.

- Winds Thursday will be out of the south gusting 35 to 50
  mph. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Will let the wind advisory expire. Winds have been slowly on the
decrease. Turning to late Wednesday overnight into Thursday morning,
1/2km winds in the NAM are running around 50kts. When that mixes out
would suspect more blowing dust. Blowing dust model hinting at such.

00z Aviation discussion has been updated below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

A series of mainly dry systems moving through the area will keep
stronger winds in the forecast for much of the period.

Into early this evening relative humidity values will stay in the 20
to 30 percent range, with winds gusting 30 to 45 mph out of the
northwest. Wind Advisories remain for the Leola Hills east through
west central MN today, with blowing dust with visibilities down to
around a mile at times mentioned. There are a few small areas of
blowing dust across central to northeastern SD and western MN, with
the most dominant sinking southeast from Ransom and Sargent Counties
in ND to Marshall and Roberts Counties. The Red Flag Warnings
continue into the early evening hours east of the Missouri River.

We will have a brief break in the strong winds tonight through
midday Wednesday as a ridge of high pressure currently set up over
eastern SD and western SD moves overhead. Winds will increase out of
the south Wednesday afternoon, with gusts of 30 to near 40 mph west
of the Missouri River. Relative humidity values will fall into the
15 to 25 percent range Wednesday. Red Flag Warnings are in effect
Wednesday for portions of central South Dakota.

The strong winds will expand across northeastern South Dakota and
western Minnesota Wednesday night into Thursday. We will continue to
highlight increasing (non-diurnal winds) Wednesday night, increasing
out of the southeast.

Winds out of the south gusting 35 to 50 mph will shift out of a
westerly direction during the day Thursday. There is a 20 to 40
percent chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. At
this time, limited precipitation is expected. Relative humidity will
still bottom out in the 10 to 30 percent range, lowest over central
South Dakota. Even on Friday, winds out of the west will gust 35 to
45 mph.

Added low (less than 20%) chances for showers Thursday morning on
the nose of the low level jet. A few rumbles of thunder will be
possible. Temperatures will rebound into the 80s Thursday. Blowing
dust will be possible again Thursday, but we also have a 20-40%
chance of showers. Little to no precipitation is currently forecast,
but any higher moisture will help keep dust/dirt a little more in
place. A wind shift during the day would be a concern for any
ongoing fire. Fire weather and wind headlines will likely be need
Thursday. Stay tuned!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions for all terminals. Winds weakening and shifting
around to southerly by the end of the TAF period.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for SDZ004>011-
     016>023-034>037-048-051.
     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ to 10 PM CDT /9 PM
     MDT/ Wednesday for SDZ003-015-033-045.
MN...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...07
DISCUSSION...06
AVIATION...07