203
FXUS63 KABR 271742
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1242 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and isolated thunderstorms remain over central South
  Dakota this afternoon. A couple of stronger to near severe
  storms will be possible.

- Rain with some embedded weak thunderstorms starts late Sunday
night over central SD and will expand east into northeast SD and
western MN during the day Monday. This will come to an end from west
to east through late Tuesday afternoon. There is a 55-75% chance of
0.5" or more rain along the ND/SD border and along and east of US
281.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Fog has weakened. As a result, the Dense Fog Advisory has been
allowed to expire. Showers remain over central South Dakota,
with a few isolated severe storms mainly west of the Missouri
River from mid morning through the early afternoon hours. The
mention of thunderstorms has been added to the Hazardous Weather
Outlook.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 102 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

As of 1 AM CDT, we have some fog moving down out of ND into the
northern portion of the CWA. So far there are only some sparse areas
of reduced visibilities, but we will keep an eye on this through the
morning. Temperatures around the region are in the upper 50s to mid
60s with light winds out of the southeast. Today will be dry during
the daylight hours and the first portion of the overnight hours,
with the exception of a slight chance for some showers and weak
thunderstorms over central SD.

Our next chance for rain moves west to east across the region
starting late tonight into early Monday morning and is expected to
last into Tuesday afternoon. Chances for more than a half an inch
have come down slightly, now between 55 and 75% between Monday and
Tuesday afternoons, mainly along the ND/SD border and along and east
of US 281. Chances for higher amounts have decreased rather
significantly, now there just a very small area along the ND/SD
border of 50-60% chance of more than an inch through Tuesday morning
whereas 24 hours ago it was a 55-70% chance over a much larger area.
This seems to be a result of the track of the low moving slightly
north. Throughout this event, there is potential for thunderstorms,
although no severe weather is expected.

The temperature forecast through the period remains relatively
unchanged with highs right around normal and a slight cooldown to
end the work week. Winds Monday afternoon with the incoming low
pressure will gust 25-35 mph west of the Prairie Coteau/Sisseton
Hills, highest in south central SD. This looks to last well into the
evening. Some fog will be possible around I-29 Monday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

We`re starting out this afternoon with showers and a few
thunderstorms over central SD, mainly around PIR. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are over both MBG and ABR. While most locations will
fluctuate between MVFR and VFR. IFR ceilings are expected around
daybreak at ATY, with the potential of fog that may be added
later if confidence increases.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...06
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...06