389
FXUS63 KABR 050600
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
100 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog will be possible this morning due to the melting
  snow and diminishing winds.

- Light rain showers this afternoon across far northeast SD and
  west central MN. Chance of rain between 15 and 25% with little
  to no accumulation.

- Winds will switch around to the northwest this afternoon behind a
cold front, bringing gusts up to 30 to 35 mph, mainly east of the
Missouri River.

- Below normal temperatures will continue through Tuesday. Monday
  will be the coldest day, with highs mainly in the upper 20s to 30s,
  or around 15 to 20 degrees below normal.

- Winds out of the southwest will gust 30 to 40 mph during the
daytime hours Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1258 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

As of 1 AM CDT temperatures are in the lower 30s with winds out of
the northwest between 10 and 15 mph. Some patches of fog will be
possible this morning, mainly around the James River valley and
east.

A cold front makes its way across the area today, bringing a chance
of some light rain showers to far northeast SD and west central MN.
Added in some 15-25% pops to cover this. Any accumulations will be
light. Winds will be a bit gusty today too, up to about 30 to 35
mph. We get a good push of CAA behind the front and mix up into some
stronger gusts. Bumped up winds a little to show this.

Our attention now shifts to later this week we get a couple rounds
of precipitation chances. The first is Tuesday afternoon (15-20%) as
high pressure moves out and the low for Wednesday starts to move in.
This is expected to mainly impact south central SD. The next chance
is Tuesday evening through the day Wednesday as the low comes in
from the northwest. Chances max out at around 50% across the ND/SD
border Wednesday morning. Temperatures overnight may be just warm
enough to keep the ptype rain in most areas. Across the higher
elevation areas of the Prairie Coteau, there is a chance that
temperatures near the surface could dip below freezing, resulting in
a few hours of freezing rain. We will watch this area over the next
few days and see if that trend continues. The chance of more than a
tenth of an inch of liquid is 15% or lower. And finally, coming to
Thursday, 20-30% chances move in and just camp out for the remainder
of the period as low pressure moves in to our south and circulates.

Temperatures through the work week are expected to be a little below
to right around average after Monday and Tuesday (20-25 and 10-15
degrees below average respectively). Going into the weekend,
temperatures are expected to be right around average.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected through Sunday.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...20