100
FXUS63 KABR 101721
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1221 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will fall into the low 30s over portions of
  northeastern SD overnight into Monday morning. Patch frost to
  areas of frost will be possible, with a Frost Advisory in
  effect.

- On Monday, continued dry conditions with relative humidity
  falling to 15 to 30% and southerly winds gusting 30-40 mph
  will bring high Grassland Fire Danger Index values to portions
  of central to northeastern SD. A Fire Weather Watch has been
  issued for portions of mainly central SD for Monday afternoon.

- Fire weather concerns are expected Tuesday and Thursday when
  wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph, with a few locations gusting to
  around 50 mph.

- High temperatures Monday through Saturday will be in the 70s
  and 80s, highest Thursday through Saturday when temperatures
  will be around 20 degrees above normal.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Few changes are currently anticipated in the ongoing forecast.
Another night of cooler temperatures is forecast tonight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 128 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

As of 1 AM CDT, temperatures around the area are in the upper
30s to mid 40s with light winds out of the north. A Frost Advisory
remains in place across most of central, north central, and
northeast SD into west central MN from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT. There is
some potential for a couple areas to dip below freezing, but not
expecting it to last long enough to issue a freeze warning.

The main concern for this week will be elevated grassland fire
danger concerns. Monday, Tuesday, and Thursday all look to be quite
windy - especially Tuesday - and with dry air still in place across
the region, RH values will fall rapidly during the day. Fuels are
slow to green up with our lack of wetting precipitation and all of
these factors combine to make favorable conditions for rapidly
spreading, difficult to control fires. Winds on Monday ahead of a
cold front are expected to gust 30 to 40 mph. This is expected to
start Monday afternoon between the MO and James Rivers and then move
east with the cold front. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for 1
PM to 9 PM CDT Monday. Tuesday, CAA behind the cold front will help
mix down some even stronger gusts of 40-50 mph. The strongest of
these winds are expected over higher elevation areas of the Leola
Hills of north central SD and the Prairie Coteau of northeast SD.
Thursday, another cold front moves across the area with gusts of 35
to 45 mph. It is quite possible that current RH value forecasts are
too high, as we have been outperforming in recent days. Will keep an
eye on this over the next several days.

In other news, temperatures will be trending up through the rest of
the weekend and remain 10-15 degrees above average through the work
week and into next weekend. This will also add to fire weather
concerns. The next chance for wetting rain looks to be this coming
weekend. A low moves towards the region Saturday and chances start
to increase Saturday night, lasting into Sunday. Obviously, with
this being 7 days out, lots of things can change. Will continue to
keep an eye on this as we get closer.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will continue over the next 24 hours, with winds
increasing Monday with gusts of 20-30kts by early afternoon.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Monday for SDZ005>008-010-
     011-017>023.
     Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday
     evening for SDZ003>006-009-010-015>018-033>037-045-048-
     051.
MN...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Monday for MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...06
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...06