475
FXUS63 KABR 132028
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
328 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increasing south to southeast wind gusts of 30-50 mph tonight
  into Thursday will help contribute to patchy to areas of
  blowing dust along with Red Flag Warning conditions.

- A cold front will swing through the area on Thursday switching
  winds from a southwest to a northwest direction from west to
  east and remain gusty until early evening.

- The combination of low relative humidities and strong winds on
  Friday will lead to another day of elevated fire weather
  conditions. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

A ridge of high pressure remains splayed out from north to south
across eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota this afternoon. This
has promoted light winds in our east while a southerly winds is
already kicked in across parts of central SD and turning gusty at
times. RH values here are approaching 20 percent and a Red Flag
Warning remains in effect into this evening for our west river zones.

As the sfc high drifts away, a tightening pressure gradient will
continue to develop between that high and a sfc frontal boundary
that`s progged to enter the western Dakotas early Thursday.
Increasing southeast wind gust overnight, possibly as strong as 40-
50 mph will be possible. Patchy blowing dust will be possible
overnight due to these winds. The strongest of these winds will
shift east into northeast SD and west central MN closer to sunrise
and persist at least to 35-45 mph through the afternoon. These winds
will continue to promote patchy to areas of blowing dust, especially
from the James Valley and points east on Thursday. Temps warming
into the upper 70s to low 80s on Thursday will help to drive
afternoon RH values into a 15-25 percent range. All this coming
together has led to the issuance of Red Flag Warning across our
entire forecast area. A couple caveats come with this however.
Relative humidity values across far northeast SD and west central MN
may remain elevated and above RFW criteria. But, with the strong
winds and dry sfc conditions in place, exercised caution with the
headline across our eastern zones. And, the passage of the cold
front and it`s timing will have a play on when/if Red Flag
conditions begin and end across the CWA. Strongest wind gust across
parts of south central SD could start to drop off by mid-late
afternoon but remain elevated into the evening across north central
SD. Strongest gusts in our east will begin to fall off by early
evening.

Decoupling winds Thursday night will allow speed to diminish
overnight. However a tight northwest flow gradient will maintain
itself into Friday. This will lead to another windy day with gusts
on the order of 35-45 mph. Temps warming once again to around 80
degrees during the afternoon will drive RH values down into critical
territory(below 20 percent). A Fire Weather Watch remains posted for
the entire forecast area on Friday do to these conditions. High
pressure should finally exert enough influence on the area on
Saturday leading to a lighter wind forecast, although RH values
still dry out by afternoon to between 20-25 percent. This should be
the last day of any fire wx concerns as a pattern shift moves into
the region by the latter half of the weekend into early next week.
Lee cyclogenesis begins to take place in response to an upper trough
digging across the western CONUS. Guidance progs an organized low
pressure system to slide out into the Plains Sunday into early
Monday. Our area should begin to see increasing chances for rainfall
by this time...much needed rainfall for most of the forecast area.
NBM probabilities of seeing a half inch or more in a 24 hour period
between Sunday and Monday mornings range between 50-70 percent.
Probs for seeing at least one inch or more in this same time frame
range from 30-50 percent. So, potentially some beneficial rains
could be on the way by early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through this
forecast period. Southeast winds pick up this afternoon at
KPIR/KMBG and then spread east and increase at KABR/KATY late
this evening and overnight. All terminals could see a period of
low level wind shear early Thursday morning. A cold front will
start to push through the area on Thursday morning with
southwest winds turning northwest by late in this TAF valid
period at KPIR/KMBG.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for
     SDZ006>008-011-018>023.
     Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051.
     Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     SDZ003-015-033-045.
     Red Flag Warning from 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ to 7 PM CDT /6 PM
     MDT/ Thursday for SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-033>037-045-
     048-051.
MN...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for MNZ039-
     046.
     Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Vipond
AVIATION...Vipond