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Forecast Discussion for Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 222331 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
531 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2020

Issued at 524 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2020

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 231 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2020

A weak area of low pressure and associated cold front will slide
across the Northern Plains tonight. The cold front will pass through
this CWA dry with only a shift in wind direction to the northwest
expected. Half km winds increase through the night, peaking
around 12Z Sunday. The winds, along with a modified Pacific
airmass, should keep temperatures fairly mild tonight with lows in
the 20s. A few valley areas could dip into the teens. Surface
high pressure sliding south will bring slightly cooler
temperatures on Sunday. Temps at 925 mb drop about 6C from 0Z
Sunday to 18Z Sunday. Still, highs will warm into the 30s and
40s, or a few degrees above normal for this time of year. The high
pressure, along with light winds, should allow for temperatures
to drop into the teens and low 20s Sunday night. Increasing
southeasterly winds may cause temperatures to become steady or
slowly rise early Monday morning over the far western CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 231 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2020

A clipper type low pressure system will track across the area Monday
and Monday night. A fairly strong upper low will accompany this
surface system, with the results being a period of light to moderate
snowfall, mainly Monday night and Tuesday. Model solutions have
become a bit more aggressive with this system, bringing slightly
higher amounts to the area and bringing the snowfall further to the
east. However, due to the fairly fast moving nature of the system,
expect snowfall amounts to only range from 1 to 3 inches, with the
higher amounts expected over the western and central portions of the
CWA. A fairly tight pressure gradient develops behind the exiting
low, creating the potential for blowing and drifting snow late
Monday night into the day Tuesday. The remainder of the extended
periods looks to be dry.

Temperatures will still be mild Monday and Tuesday, with highs in
the 30s Monday and in the mid to upper 20s on Tuesday. Cooler air
moves in mid week, with highs in the upper teens to mid 20s
Wednesday before another warm up begins. Highs will range from the
lower 20s east to the mid 30s west on Thursday, from the upper 20s
east to the lower 40s west on Friday, and from the mid 30s east to
the upper 40s west on Saturday. After a mild night with lows in the
20s Monday night, will see a couple of chilly nights with lows in
the single digits Tuesday night and Wednesday night. Thursday night
and Friday night will feature lows in the teens to lower 20s.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 524 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2020

Prevailing VFR conditions can be expected for all terminals
through the valid TAF period. A weak cold front will slide across
the region overnight, shifting winds to the northwest. All four
terminals could potentially experience some low level wind shear
between 06Z and 18Z.




LONG TERM...Parkin

Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS Aberdeen, SD (ABR) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

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