296
FXUS63 KABR 141756
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1256 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain spreads north and east into the region this evening,
mainly staying south of Hwy 12.

- Northwest winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph are
expected to develop Thursday afternoon and evening across central
and north central South Dakota. A Wind Advisory has been issued.
These winds combined with drier air will also push Grassland Fire
Danger into the High category Thursday afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

There is a lot of uncertainty regarding temperatures and
precipitation over the next two days. Temperatures will, in part,
ride on cloud cover, and models have been struggling with the
current stratus deck east of the Missouri River.

An upper trough/low dips into ND Thursday as almost a cut-off low
swings into the central and southern plains. At the sfc, a weak low
pressure system moves into the central plains with an H7 low farther
north over Nebraska somewhat embedded and stacked in the cut-off
trough. This is farther south than previous runs and may keep any
rain south of the Hwy 212 corridor but definitely south of Hwy 12.
As the sfc low moves in MO on Thursday, drier mid level air pushes
in from the northwest across SD on the leading edge of a sfc high.
This drier air coupled with the troughing aloft will usher in caa
and cause northwest winds to gust 35 to 50 mph across the area in
the afternoon and evening. A wind advisory has been issued for
portions of central and north central SD. For now, have it ending at
5z Friday, but may need a headline farther east for the remainder of
the night given the 45 to 50 kt winds at 850mb. The Coteau, at
least, could remain very gusty through the early morning hours given
the pressure gradient in the east and the 90 kt jet. Given the
strength of the winds, unsure how low temps will fall Friday morning
as H85 temps fall into the negative single digits. The caa and the
winds could cancel each other out, or we may end up needing some
freeze headlines. With the winds on Thursday and min RH around 35 to
45 percent across central SD, may also need to consider impact fire
headlines where fuels are burnable.

Highs pressure builds in on Friday with a ridge transitioning over
the Rockies and Plains on Saturday. Above normal temperatures and
dry conditions are expected Saturday through the first half of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

A persistent deck of MVFR stratus has set up east of the
Missouri River today. Expect improvement late tonight/early
Thursday as drier air moves in and northwest winds increase.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Advisory from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ Thursday to midnight
     CDT /11 PM MDT/ Thursday night for SDZ003>005-009-010-015-
     016-033>035-045-048.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...20