240
FXUS63 KABR 310053
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
753 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold front late tonight into Tuesday morning. Widespread moisture
unlikely. Cooler Tuesday with highs in the 40s. Northwest winds
gusting 30 to 45 mph in the morning.

- Mid week system moves into central SD late Tuesday night bringing
accumulating snow. Confidence decreases as system moves east late
Wednesday into Thursday. There is a 65% chance of more than 2 inches
of snow and a 40 to 50% chance of more than 4 inches of snow through
Thursday morning. There is a 25 to 35% chance of greater than 6
inches east of the Missouri River. See discussion for details on why
this may not happen.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 753 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

No significant changes are anticipated to the ongoing forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

A tale of three systems this week. The first is a dry cold front
late tonight into Tuesday morning. Temperatures will return to near
to below average behind this front. It will also increase north to
northwest winds with gusts of 30 to 45 mph. While the surge of caa
may wring out what little moisture is available right now, this will
result in a passing shower or sprinkle at most, mainly across north
central SD.

The mid week system is a major forecasting challenge because it
really hinges on forcing from a 700 mb low. Models are notoriously
bad at pinpointing location and strength of such lows. And, it`s
competing against dry air entrainment from sfc high pressure in the
east. The initial moisture push starts off in central SD late
Tuesday night with some help from a Wyoming sfc low and shortwave
energy aloft. Still looks like central SD will be the focal point
through much of Wednesday for snow accumulations given best moisture
availability on easterly flow and where the support is. The 700 mb
low and easterly flow become more pronounced over eastern SD late
Wednesday into Thursday. This is where confidence nose-dives due to
lack of consistency as models (especially ensembles) trend upward on
snow amounts/QPF. For the moment, calling for a generally widespread
2 to 4 inches across the forecast area, but be wary of the choke
points: moisture, 700 mb position, lack of additional forcing.

The third system is a more classic stacked low coming off the
Rockies on Friday. A lot is still dependent on the track. Much of it
could be dry slotted if the low moves right across South Dakota.
But, we`d still catch the wrap around into the weekend either way.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 753 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours at MBG/PIR, with
MVFR ceilings at ABR from 12-19Z Tuesday and at ATY from 13-19Z
Tuesday. Winds will be another concern, increasing out of the
north with gusts 25-35kts overnight through mid afternoon
Tuesday.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...06
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...06