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Forecast Discussion for Aberdeen, SD
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000 FXUS63 KABR 050814 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 314 AM CDT Wed Oct 5 2022 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday Afternoon) Issued at 314 AM CDT Wed Oct 5 2022 The main forecast challenge in the near term is wind speeds and gusts. An upper level shortwave trough currently over the eastern part of the CWA will exit to the southeast today, with northwest flow then in place through the rest of the period. Some weak shortwave energy will slide over the western part of the area on Thursday. At the surface, some lingering shower activity ongoing as of 07Z will likely come to an end this morning as the upper trough exits the region and weak high pressure settles in over the central part of the country. Attention then turns to a fairly strong cold front that looks to reach the northern CWA early this evening before tracking southward across the CWA tonight, with fairly strong north winds moving in behind it. The center of the high will remain over south central Canada on Thursday, keeping a fairly strong pressure gradient in place over the CWA, thereby keeping the strong winds going through the day, particularly across the eastern half of the CWA. Sustained winds of 20 to 35 mph will be common, with gusts around 40 mph not out of the question. Models and CAMs are in agreement that there may be some rain shower potential across the western CWA in association with the aforementioned upper level shortwave energy. Will keep POPs fairly low though as coverage area looks to be minimal. High temperatures today will be in the 70s, with lows tonight in the mid 30s to the lower 40s. Highs on Thursday will be in the mid 40s to lower 50s. .LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Tuesday) Issued at 314 AM CDT Wed Oct 5 2022 Main concern in the long term is early Friday morning with high confidence temperatures for most of the CWA will be below freezing, ending the growing season with a freeze advisory likely. The question remains how cold it will get in some areas with some high clouds forecasted over the area. Otherwise, dry weather expected through the end of the week and weekend. Clusters at 500mb are still in solid agreement on placement and amplitude of the ridge over the western U.S./Pacific Ocean which stretches well north into Canada. This continues to put much of the Northern Plains in a northwest flow aloft with a trough over eastern Canada and the northeastern part of the U.S. By Saturday, we start to possibly see a breakdown of this ridge as a trough moves in over it (still varying between the Cluster ensembles). Ensembles also still disagree on timing of this incoming trough and its movement east over Canada into Sunday/Monday. Either way, northwest flow will continue well into the weekend aloft. Clusters 8-10 Mean 500mb height field indicates that this ridge rebuilds over the Pacific. Within this flow, ECMWF Ens/GEFS indicate some shortwave energy swinging down from the north (from the tilted trough to our east)Friday. ECMWF/GFS is hinting at lingering chances or precip early Friday with the exiting cold front, mainly in our extreme southwestern CWA with NBM keeping just a very slight chance of pops (15-25%) between 00-06Z Friday. Back at the surface, a 1036mb high (99% above climo for MSLP, according to NAEFS)will be influencing our weather keeping the area quiet. The high will shift to our southeast Saturday and a surface low (center of low either MN/Manitoba area) and cold front will pass over the area from the north, associated with this shortwave Sunday. Another low out of Canada is possible with this next trough early-mid next week with a possibility of precip, but timing on the trough/low differs between ensembles and deterministic models this far out. Early Friday morning will be a taste of winter with NBM forecasted temps ranging from the mid 20s to the lower 30s. ECMWF temps at 925 range from -1C to +1C with 850mb temps -7C to -2C (below average)! So with these cold temps just above the surface, light winds, and radiational cooling, it will get quite chilly with widespread frost! Our average lows range in the upper 30s-lower 40s this time of year. I went along with the previous forecast and blended in NBM 25% for MinT/temps Fri morning. With CAA dominant from this high, high temps for Friday only in the upper 40s to the lower/mid 50s. With a shift in the winds this weekend, we will see a little bit of a warmup with temps back up in the 60s and even some lower 70s early next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night) Issued at 1224 AM CDT Wed Oct 5 2022 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG Scattered showers may still move across the PIR area over the next couple of hours, otherwise a dry forecast is expected for the rest of the period across all of the TAF sites. The main concern will be lower ceilings and fog at ATY, where visibility continues to rapidly fluctuate between 1/4 mile and 5 to 7 miles since 02Z. Fog is not widespread, and will continue to vary as mid clouds move overhead from the south. Still expect IFR ceilings and visibility to become more common between 09Z and 12Z before improving to VFR by around 15Z Wednesday. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Parkin LONG TERM...MMM AVIATION...Parkin
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NWS Aberdeen, SD (ABR) Office Forecast Discussions.
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