961
FXUS63 KABR 121115 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
615 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Continued dry conditions today, with relative humidity falling to
15 to 30% and northwesterly winds gusting 35-45 mph will bring high
to very high Grassland Fire Danger Index values to the region. A Red
Flag Warning is in place for portions of central to northeastern SD
this afternoon for ongoing warm and dry conditions combined with the
gusty winds.

- A Wind Advisory is in place for northeastern SD and west central
MN, mainly near the ND border for strong winds out of the northwest
gusting 35 to 45 mph, with a few localized locations gusting to near
50 mph.

- Winds Thursday will be out of the south gusting 35 to 50 mph.
  Elevated fire weather conditions are expected.

- High temperatures through Saturday will be in the 70s and 80s,
highest Thursday near record high temperatures are forecast Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 105 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

As of 1 AM CDT, temperatures around the forecast area are in the
upper 40s to low 50s with northwesterly winds between 10 and 15 mph.
The cold front is most of the way across the area and will continue
to move southeast through the remainder of the early morning hours.
With the wind gusts today and continued dry conditions, blowing dust
may impact some localized areas between the MO and James Rivers
today. Confidence is low on where and when this could happen.

Those same windy and dry conditions will continue the elevated fire
weather concerns today and through at least the end of the work
week. A Red Flag warning remains in effect for portions of central
and northeast SD into west central MN from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT.
Afternoon relative humidity values across the forecast area are
expected to fall into the 20 to 30% range again today. Wind gusts of
35 to 45 mph are expected, with localized gusts of 50 mph possible,
mainly east of the MO River. A Wind Advisory is in effect for
portions of northeast SD along the ND border for these higher
wind gusts. Any fires that develop will spread easily and be
difficult to contain. Wednesday looks to be less windy across
most of the forecast area, but some gusts of 30-40 mph will be
possible west River. These winds will spread east overnight and
continue through the day Thursday, rising to 35 to 45 mph,
localized gusts of 50 possible again. Friday looks to be
similar.

Temperatures through the week and into the weekend will be above
average with highs generally in the 70s and 80s. A low pressure
system moves across the Dakotas Sunday leaving cooler air behind for
Monday. This low will also bring a chance for a little rain. The
chance of more than a tenth of an inch in 24 hours has increased to
about 40 to 60% east of the MO River during the day Sunday with an
additional 20 to 30% through the day Monday generally east of the
James River.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 614 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected through tonight. Northwest winds
will gust 25 to 35 kts today before diminishing quickly this
evening.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for SDZ005>008.
     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for SDZ004>010-016>018-034>037-048-051.
MN...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ039-046.
     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...20