740
FXUS63 KABR 102324 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
624 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An Extreme Heat Warning for north central SD and Heat Advisory
  for the rest of central and portions of northeastern SD and
  west central MN have been issued. Near record high
  temperatures could potentially hit triple digits Sunday
  through Tuesday. This level of heat may cause widespread heat
  related impacts particularly for those without adequate
  cooling and those sensitive to heat.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 620 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Aviation discussion updated below for the 00Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 129 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

As a frontal boundary tries to move south today over northeastern SD
into an area with some instability, scattered showers and storms
might try to form this afternoon into the evening over northeastern
SD. Models are showing decent instability, around 1000-2000 J/kg
CAPE values, over northeastern SD and west central MN this
afternoon. While there is decent instability for storm development,
there is a lack of shear over the area to help create organized and
longer lived storms. High-res models continue to show the storms
developing and moving through northeastern SD. Through the evening,
the storms should start to dissipate and/or move to the south. There
is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for the storms to become severe.
With mid-level lapse rates between 6-7 C/km, hail up to 1 inch and
60 mph wind gusts could be possible if any storm tries to develop.

An upper-level ridge will be starting to move in tonight and will
continue to build and sit over SD through the weekend into the
middle of next week. This ridge will help some surface high pressure
to build to the southeast of central and northeastern SD, which will
help to keep showers and storms from developing during the weekend
into the beginning of next week. The ridge and high pressure will
start to move warm temperatures in this weekend into next week.
Temperatures Sunday and Monday will be 10-20 degrees warmer than
normal and this could lead to record or near record high
temperatures in north central and potentially south central SD.
Saturday, high temperatures and heat index values will in the low
90s to 100 degrees. It will warm Sunday through Tuesday to be in the
mid 90s to above 100 degrees. Low temperatures will not recover very
much overnight, especially Sunday night, which could help to further
increase chances for heat related impacts. The NWS heat risk will be
in the major category for central and northeastern SD through the
weekend into next week and could even get up into the extreme
category Monday and Tuesday. Those who are sensitive to heat or
without adequate cooling and hydration will be vulnerable to heat
illnesses and other heat impacts. Make sure to stay hydrated and
cool in this heat. An extreme heat warning has been issued for north
central SD and a heat advisory has been issued for the rest of
central and northeastern SD and west central MN. East central is on
the edge of needing a heat advisory, and one will likely be issued
later. Additionally, the heat advisory might be upgraded to extreme
heat warning in some areas as compounding effects from long term
heat could start to cause issues in areas.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 620 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Heat Advisory from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ Saturday to 7 PM CDT
     /6 PM MDT/ Tuesday for SDZ005>008-010-011-017-018-021-
     033>037-045-048-051.
     Extreme Heat Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ Saturday to 7
    PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ Tuesday for SDZ003-004-009-015-016.
MN...Heat Advisory from noon Saturday to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for
     MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...TMT