188
FXUS63 KABR 260241 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
841 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wind chills of -20 to near -40 degrees will continue into
  Monday morning, with the lowest readings across the Leola Hills
  of north central and Prairie Coteau of northeastern South
  Dakota.

- High temperatures briefly return to near normal values Monday,
  with highs in the upper teens and 20s. 30s are expected across
  Stanley, Jones, and Lyman Counties.

- Temperatures will return to below normal values Monday night
  through Friday, with highs around 10 to 20 degrees below normal.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 832 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Made some adjustments to the headlines earlier this evening to
expand the Cold Weather Advisory westward, while also starting
portions of the advisory a bit earlier. Temperatures are falling
quickly into and through the teens below zero for most areas,
under the surface high. Dropped lows a couple degrees in a few
locations. Between 06Z and 12Z, southwest winds will increase as
warm air advection kicks in as well. Still anticipating slowly
rising temps during that time, but with bitterly cold wind chills
from 20 below to nearly 40 below zero remaining in place.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

The current weather map shows a 1035mb surface high over
northeastern SD and far southwestern ND. The surface high will reside
over north central/central SD at 00Z Monday before quickly sinking
across NE and into KS by late this evening.

The cold air and low wind chill readings will be the main concern
over the next 24 hours. Wind chills of -20 to near -40 degrees will
continue into Monday morning, with the lowest readings across the
Leola Hills of north central and Prairie Coteau of northeastern
South Dakota where the winds stay a little more elevated tonight
with gusts of 15-25mph as the pressure gradient increases behind the
exiting surface high. The dangerously cold wind chills could cause
frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes. A Cold Weather
Advisory remains in effect tonight into mid-morning Monday, with
McPherson County already in a Cold Weather Advisory due to the
earlier onset of lower wind chills.

After lows in the -10 to -15 degree range, much warmer air briefly
takes hold Monday afternoon behind a warm front extending south from
a low across Hudson Bay/Canada. Temperatures will rise into the
teens above to 20s above zero Monday. 30s are expected over south
central South Dakota. Winds Monday, similar to today, have been
increased from their original forecast. Winds out of the southwest
at 12z Monday will shift out of the west by 18Z, and then out of the
northwest through the rest of the afternoon with gusts of 30 to 40
mph. The strongest winds will be over the eastern slopes of the
Prairie Coteau. These will be the strongest winds/gusts we
experience through the work week.

The cold front will be sliding south across the forecast area Monday
afternoon, with 850mb temperatures topping out between -2 and -8C at
18Z, falling -7 to -16C by 03Z Tuesday. Our brief return to seasonal
normal temperatures will be just during the daytime hours Monday.

Cold Canadian high pressure will again build across the Northern
Plains, and be overhead Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night and
stay over our far northeastern counties through at least Thursday
evening as a weak lee trough tries to get better organized to our
west.

Expect cold conditions, with highs around 10 to 20 degrees below
normal for this time of year Tuesday through Friday. Mainly dry
weather will continue through at least the first half of the work
week, although it will be difficult to completely rule out flurries
or a light dusting of snow over central SD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 544 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

SCT/BKN MVFR CIGs off Lake Oahe will affect KPIR at the start of
the TAF period. Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast through the
period. Low-level wind shear (LLWS) will be a concern for KMBG for
Monday morning.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Monday for SDZ005>008-010-
     011-017>023-036-037.

     Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Monday
     for SDZ004-009-016-034-035-045-048-051.

MN...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Monday for MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
DISCUSSION...06
AVIATION...TMT