551
FXUS63 KABR 252024
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
224 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Ongoing dense fog and freezing fog may improve some through
  early this evening, before returning overnight and creating
  another round of visibility at or below a quarter mile. A dense
  fog advisory is in place. Freezing fog overnight could cause
  slippery, icy roads.

- Above normal temperatures will continue through Saturday. High
  temperatures will be in the mid 30s and 40s (and 50s to low 60s
  over south central South Dakota).

- Strong northwest winds and bitterly cold temperatures are
  expected Saturday evening through Sunday. Sustained winds in
  excess of 30 mph and gusts in excess of 45 mph are a concern.

- High temperatures to start 2026 off may not get above 0F degrees
  for some parts of South Dakota into west central Minnesota.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 216 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

At 2 PM CST, under a cloudy sky and areas of fog, temperatures have
been warming into the 30s and 40s, with readings into the 50s and
low 60s across south central South Dakota. Areas of fog, some of it
dense, have been slow to burn off today, with much of the area
covered by the ongoing Dense Fog Advisory still showing rather poor
visibility, per regional webcams. Winds are generally out of the
south around 10 to 15 mph. Over northeast South Dakota into west
central Minnesota, south winds were a bit stronger around 15 to
25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

A warm front over the CWA is still working its way northeast, so
despite the broken/overcast skies, expecting surface temperatures to
continue to slowly warm into early this evening. A cold front will
pass through the region overnight, turning these southerly winds
around to the north-northwest and bringing in a little bit of low
level CAA (probably shallow enough, but strong enough to act as a
low level thermal inversion re-inforcer). This will end up
enhancing more fog/stratus potential later tonight. There is also
a shortwave moving up into the region, that will produce a low
probability (less than 30 percent) chance of very light
rain/sprinkles from late this afternoon through late this evening
(can already see a pocket of rain returns on radar throughout
Stanley/Jones Counties).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 216 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

While the flow pattern aloft will be taking on a negative PNA
pattern (upper trof over the western CONUS/upper ridge over the
east) heading into this weekend, low level WAA persists long enough
to make Saturday one last warm day. As this upper trof works east
across the CONUS over the weekend, it will drag a strong cold front
through the CWA starting Saturday late afternoon/early evening into
the early morning hours on Sunday. Various models and their
ensembles are still pointing to over 20 degrees Celsius of cooling
happening at 925hpa between 00Z Sunday and 18Z Sunday. Pretty strong
low level CAA. There is also a another pretty strong pressure rise
bubble headed this way Saturday night. Suspect this will probably be
the next potential round of strong northwest winds (Saturday evening
through Sunday) in excess of 30 mph sustained and gusts in excess of
45 mph. The rest of the 7-day forecast is a return to a positive PNA
upper flow pattern, with low level WAA and CAA patterns taking turns
over this CWA. By New Year`s Day 2026, there is a low probability
(15-25%) taking shape for a cold surge coming down into this
region to glance the eastern half to two-thirds of this CWA with
arctic air cold enough to make high temperatures struggle to reach
the single digits above zero!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1148 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Guidance continues to insist that IFR fog and stratus is going to
go away across all four terminals by 00Z. Tried to honor that, in
as much as possible. But, given the current set-up and the
mid/high clouds streaming overhead, not all that confident this
will happen. Guidance then has all four terminals dropping back
down below VFR by 09Z tonight, persisting through the day on
Friday. Threw in a PROB30 for KPIR and KATY for some very light
rain mainly this evening, as a low pressure system moves over the
region.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ Friday for
     SDZ003>011-019>023.

MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Friday for MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...10