689
FXUS63 KABR 271116 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
516 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild and above average temperatures (40s to near 60) today,
  falling to below average this weekend.

- Increasing west to northwesterly winds (25 to near 40 mph
  gusts) today, along with lowering humidity (25 to 40 percent),
  will bring high/very high fire danger to central/south central
  SD.

- Snow chances (50 to 70 percent) return tonight through Saturday
  over central and portions of northeastern SD. A general 1 to 2
  inches expected, but some higher end scenarios are closer to 4
  to 5 inches.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 100 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

As of 1 AM CDT, temperatures around the area are in the 30s to
low 40s with winds out of the west to west northwest at around 10
to 15 mph.

We currently are sitting in the warm sector of a low pressure system
moving across southern Canada. The cold front from this low will
move northwest to southeast across the area today resulting in a
rather wide range of highs and a strong temperature gradient. Highs
today across the northeast half of the CWA will be in the low 40s,
assuming the front doesn`t come in ahead of schedule. The southwest
portion of the CWA will be in the 50s. Did bump up temps in south
central SD a little bit. Winds along the front will be strong,
gusting to around 40 mph, but not quite long enough for a wind
advisory. Behind the front, winds will be supported by CAA. Also
bumped up winds slightly to show that CAA assist. With this
combination of warm temperatures and strong winds, grassland fire
danger is elevated. RHs aren`t quite up to warning criteria, even
with these slight increases. Across the northeast portion of the
CWA, things are getting set up for a snow event Friday evening into
Saturday morning. A nice band of frontogenesis sets up along and
around a line generally from Mobridge to Watertown which is where a
band of slightly higher snow could develop. The HREF is showing some
snowfall rates of 0.25 to 0.5" per hour in this area, but generally
snowfall totals are expected to be between 1 and 2 inches with some
locally higher amounts closer to 4 or 5 inches possible. Not
confident enough on higher end snow totals or location of heaviest
snow to issue a headline. Will let the next shift decide that.

The rest of the forecast has some more chances for precipitation,
although little in the way of QPF is expected. Temperatures next
work week are expected to increase through the week, reaching
potentially the high 40s to mid 50s by Wednesday before some
slightly cooler air moves in for the second half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 514 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will persist until after 6z Saturday when snow
moves over KMBG/KABR/KATY. Cigs will fall to MVFR and vsby to
MVFR/IFR in the snow.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...20